VOA标准英语2008年-US Economic Downturn Seen as Mild, Brief

By Michael Bowman
Washington
19 May 2008

A Washington-based business group says the U.S. economy remains¹ sluggish², but will likely avoid a major recession. VOA's Michael Bowman reports.

The last two U.S. recessions, in the early 1990s and in 2001, saw quarters in which America's economy contracted, with inflation-adjusted gross domestic product registering negative growth rates. This year, the U.S. economy has flirted³ with recession, but has averted⁴ an actual contraction⁵, logging a 0.6 percent growth rate in the first quarter.

A panel of economists⁷ surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics expects America's anemic economic growth to continue in the short term, expanding only 0.4 percent for the second quarter of this year. Lynn Reaser, an economist⁶ for Bank of America who heads NABE's economic forecasting committee, says the overall projection⁸ is for an economic downturn that is both mild and brief.

"This is a very shallow downturn," said Reaser. "In fact, only slightly more than half of our [NABE] members believe it will ultimately be declared a recession. And, of those, the majority believe it will be over either this quarter or the next [one]."

The NABE panel expects economic growth to pick up in the second half of the year, at a two percent annual growth rate. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to continue to rise, but only modestly to 5.6 percent next year.

The NABE panel points to some encouraging signs for the economy, including expanding U.S. exports and a narrowing U.S. trade deficit⁹. The panel expects the U.S. dollar, which has fallen dramatically against the Euro and other major currencies, to stabilize¹⁰ and eventually strengthen.

Worries about the U.S. economy began to escalate¹¹ last year, prompted in large part by a rash of foreclosures among Americans with so-called "sub-prime" mortgages that were given to homebuyers with spotty credit histories. The sub-prime crisis provoked a broader credit crunch¹² that has made it difficult for many businesses and consumers to secure loans, constraining¹³ economic activity and devastating¹⁴ the U.S. housing market.

Turmoil¹⁵ in financial markets and higher energy prices are taking a toll¹⁶ on current growth, as well.

Lynn Reaser says NABE economists believe the worst of the credit crunch is likely over.

"What this survey suggests is that, perhaps, credit availability will actually improve in the second half of this year," said Reaser. "It is important because there have been concerns that all of the problems on Wall Street would crimp borrowing for businesses and consumers on Main Street [the broader economy]. It still will be a constraint¹⁷ going forward, but we think that credit markets will loose some of their tight grip as we move through the balance of 2008."

The NABE forecast appears to be in line with other U.S. economic signals. Another group, the New York-based Conference Board, said that its index of leading economic indicators¹⁸ edged higher in April. The slight rise in the index, which is designed to forecast short-term economic performance, is seen as a sign of continued economic weakness, but does not foreshadow a drastic downturn.

1 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

2 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

3 flirted   

v.调情，打情骂俏( flirt的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• She flirted her fan. 她急速挥动着扇子。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• During his four months in Egypt he flirted with religious emotions. 在埃及逗留的这四个月期间，他又玩弄起宗教情绪来了。 来自辞典例句

4 averted   

防止，避免( avert的过去式和过去分词 )； 转移

参考例句：

• A disaster was narrowly averted. 及时防止了一场灾难。
• Thanks to her skilful handling of the affair, the problem was averted. 多亏她对事情处理得巧妙，才避免了麻烦。

5 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

6 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

7 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。

9 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

10 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

11 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

12 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

13 constraining   

强迫( constrain的现在分词 )； 强使； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• He was constraining his mind not to wander from the task. 他克制着不让思想在工作时开小差。
• The most constraining resource in all of these cases is venture capital. 在所有这些情况下最受限制的资源便是投入资本。

14 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

15 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

16 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

17 constraint   

n.(on)约束，限制；限制(或约束)性的事物

参考例句：

• The boy felt constraint in her presence.那男孩在她面前感到局促不安。
• The lack of capital is major constraint on activities in the informal sector.资本短缺也是影响非正规部门生产经营的一个重要制约因素。

18 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。