VOA标准英语2008年-Could Ukraine Become Russia's Next Target?

The former Soviet¹ republics of Georgia and Ukraine are allies engaged in similar attempts to establish democratic rule, to join NATO and realign themselves with the West, much to the displeasure of Russia. During the conflict in Georgia, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko prohibited ships from the Russian Black Sea Fleet that are engaged off the Georgian coast from returning to port on Ukraine's Crimean peninsula without Kyiv's official permission. VOA correspondent Peter Fedynsky examines how the Kremlin may react to Ukraine's pro-Georgian and pro-Western position.
　

Hrushevsky School in Tbilisi, Georgia

In 2007, Public School Number 41 in Tbilisi was named after Mykhailo Hrushevsky, president of the short-lived Ukrainian People's Republic in 1917 and 1918.

Ukraine's current President, Viktor Yushchenko flew to Tbilisi to join his Georgian friend and fellow head of state, Mikheil Saakashvili, in the school's re-dedication ceremony. Both men rode to power following mass pro-democracy protests that came to be known as colored revolutions. Georgia's was the Rose Revolution and Ukraine's was the Orange. Accordingly, the Hrushevsky School was painted orange.

Moscow has not disguised its displeasure with the colored revolutions and refuses to deal with Mr. Saakashvili. On Tuesday, President Yushchenko again flew to Tbilisi, accompanied this time by the presidents of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
　

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko (file photo)

Mr. Yushchenko says the task of the presidential mission is to show that Georgia is not alone, that in this age the power of reason should not be replaced by the iron fist.

The Ukrainian leader says the five presidents came to Georgia to prohibit the of killing² people and the execution of the country.

Ukrainian military analyst³ Oleksiy Melnyk, of the Razumkov Center think tank in Kyiv, told VOA the Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic leaders do not necessarily agree with all of the actions undertaken in the conflict by Georgian leadership, but notes they risked their own physical security to send a signal to Moscow.
　

Oleksiy Melnyk

Melnyk says Moscow should see the presidential show of solidarity⁴ in Tbilisi as a serious signal that Russian foreign policy of establishing control over former Soviet republics and its neighborhood achieves a totally opposite effect. The analyst says Russia is surrounding itself with nations that are, at a minimum, not friendly and perhaps even hostile toward Moscow.

Oleksiy Melnyk says Russian military actions in Georgia could lead the majority of Ukrainians who now oppose to their country's NATO membership to reassess their opinions about the respective security threats posed by the Western alliance and Russia.
　

Soso Tsiskarishvili

The chairman of the European Integration⁵ Forum⁶ in Tbilisi, Soso Tsiskarishvili, agrees with Melnyk's assessment⁷, but notes Ukraine is better prepared to meets NATO's democratic standards for membership than Georgia.

Tsiskarishvili says Ukraine's two recent parliamentary elections and Georgia's presidential and parliamentary contests differ from one another like heaven and earth in terms of democratic and transparent⁸ procedures.

But Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer cautions that Ukraine could be Russia's next target as part of what he says is a grand Kremlin plan for the partial restoration of Russian greatness.

"Russia right now wants at least half of Ukraine to be annexed," said Felgenhauer. "Vladimir Putin talked about that rather openly at the NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania in April. Ukraine will disintegrate⁹ into two halves, and we want the eastern half, including of course, first and foremost, Crimea."

Felgenhauer says Ukraine's overwhelming vote for independence in 1991, which included a majority of Crimeans, means nothing to Kremlin rulers, who the analyst says do not respect the will of even their own people.

Nonetheless, the analyst says Russia is tied down in Georgia and will not make any immediate¹⁰ military moves against Ukraine. He notes, however, that Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which leases naval¹¹ facilities in Sevastopol in Crimea, will likely steam back to port in defiance¹² of a Ukrainian presidential order that it must first ask for Ukrainian permission.

"If Russia openly challenges Ukrainian sovereignty, I think that Ukraine will then turn to the West and say, 'you know guys, they're challenging our sovereignty with their fleet.' And this will happen without any kind of use of arms, or anything made in anger. Ukraine right now, apparently¹³ wants to make the threat to its sovereignty obvious to outside powers," said Felgenhauer.

Felgenhauer says Moscow's vision of the world is that of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin; one in which Russia and Washington share spheres of influence. The analyst notes that Russia withdrew its bases from Cuba and Vietnam, expecting the United States to stay away from what Moscow thought was to be its sphere of influence. He says Moscow felt betrayed when Washington began supporting colored revolutions among Russia's neighbors.

But Soso Tsiskarishvili points to this week's visit to Tbilisi by presidents of five countries that border Russia as a sign that they do not trust the Kremlin.

1 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

2 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

3 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

4 solidarity   

n.团结；休戚相关

参考例句：

• They must preserve their solidarity.他们必须维护他们的团结。
• The solidarity among China's various nationalities is as firm as a rock.中国各族人民之间的团结坚如磐石。

5 integration   

n.一体化，联合，结合

参考例句：

• We are working to bring about closer political integration in the EU.我们正在努力实现欧盟內部更加紧密的政治一体化。
• This was the greatest event in the annals of European integration.这是欧洲统一史上最重大的事件。

6 forum   

n.论坛，讨论会

参考例句：

• They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
• The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。

7 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

8 transparent   

adj.明显的，无疑的；透明的

参考例句：

• The water is so transparent that we can see the fishes swimming.水清澈透明，可以看到鱼儿游来游去。
• The window glass is transparent.窗玻璃是透明的。

9 disintegrate   

v.瓦解，解体，（使）碎裂，（使）粉碎

参考例句：

• The older strata gradually disintegrate.较老的岩层渐渐风化。
• The plane would probably disintegrate at that high speed.飞机以那么高速飞行也许会四分五裂。

10 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

11 naval   

adj.海军的，军舰的，船的

参考例句：

• He took part in a great naval battle.他参加了一次大海战。
• The harbour is an important naval base.该港是一个重要的海军基地。

12 defiance   

n.挑战，挑衅，蔑视，违抗

参考例句：

• He climbed the ladder in defiance of the warning.他无视警告爬上了那架梯子。
• He slammed the door in a spirit of defiance.他以挑衅性的态度把门砰地一下关上。

13 apparently   

adv.显然地；表面上，似乎

参考例句：

• An apparently blind alley leads suddenly into an open space.山穷水尽，豁然开朗。
• He was apparently much surprised at the news.他对那个消息显然感到十分惊异。