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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
The top U.S. commander in Iraq will leave his post Tuesday after a momentous1 year and a half, during which he is credited with reversing a spiral of violence that seemed destined2 to plunge3 the country into civil war. From Baghdad, VOA's Al Pessin reports on the legacy4 General David Petraeus will leave behind.
General David Petraeus prepares to testify before Senate Armed Forces Committee, 08 Apr 2008
In February of last year, when General Petraeus arrived in Iraq, 81 U.S. troops were killed here. The number rose to a high of 126 in May, as more troops poured in and the general ordered them out into Iraqi villages and neighborhoods to engage a variety of insurgent5 groups. These days, the U.S. monthly casualty toll6 here averages about 20. And there has been a parallel reduction in Iraqi deaths, along with an 85 percent cut in overall violence.
En route to Iraq to preside over General Petraeus' change-of-command ceremony, U.S. Defense7 Secretary Robert Gates was lavish8 in his praise of the general's role in what he called the "turnaround" in Iraq.
"I think he's played a historic role. There's just no two ways about. We've lost a lot of lives, but it's really been an extraordinary effort of a translation of a great strategy into a great success in a very difficult circumstance," said Gates. "General Petraeus is clearly the hero of the hour, but I think all of us would say there are an awful lot of heroes working for him that have actually made this happen."
Analysts10 across the political spectrum11 also credit General Petraeus for taking the leading role in the Iraq turnaround. "He took a war that was clearly being lost and turned it around," said retired12 U.S. Army Lieutenant13 Colonel John Nagl. "If I were writing a book on General Petraeus' service over the last 18 months, I would call it 'Turnaround.'"
Nagl served in Iraq earlier in the war and is now an analyst9 at the Center for a New American Security in Washington. "His own role, his own vision, his own drive, his own understanding of counterinsurgency led him to implement14 a new strategy," he said. "He understood that the key to success in any counterinsurgency campaign is protecting the population. That comes first."
It was General Petraeus' first two tours of duty in Iraq that led him to believe a new strategy was needed. In 2006, while running the Army's main analytical15 center, he ordered the writing of a new counterinsurgency doctrine16. In early 2007, with violence in Iraq seeming to spin out of control, President Bush ordered General Petraeus to take his new doctrine and put it to work.
Another expert who has become a fan of General Petraeus is Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, an early skeptic17 of the new strategy and the troop surge that went with it. "We have to start by saying it's simply remarkable," said O'Hanlon.. "It's the latest, greatest comeback in American military history, perhaps since the Civil War."
At Boston University, Andrew Bacevich also credits General Petraeus with helping18 to avoid defeat in Iraq. But he is not sure just how much of the credit the general himself deserves.
"I think it's a question about which historians will argue," said Bacevich. "The surge itself, in terms of an additional increment19 of 30,000 or so U.S. troops, probably was not decisive. More important, probably, was the change in tactics, or doctrine, that Petraeus introduced."
Bacevich says Petraeus was good, but also lucky, with the cease-fire declared by the main Shiite militia20, and the change of allegiance among Sunni tribal21 leaders from al-Qaida insurgents22 to the new Iraqi government. And, Bacevich says, the success of the overall strategy behind the surge is still in question.
"As I understand the logic23 of the surge, it was to reduce the level of violence, in order to facilitate a political reconciliation24 among Iraqis," he said. "The violence has subsided25 to a degree, a significant degree. But I, myself, don't see that this political reconciliation, and, therefore, the end of U.S. involvement, is going to happen anytime soon."
As General Petraeus flies out of Iraq he knows it will not be long until he comes back. His new job is chief of U.S. Central Command, with responsibility for all U.S. military operations in the Middle East and Central Asia, including Iraq and Afghanistan.
So, the next question for analysts like Michael O'Hanlon is whether the general can transfer his success from Iraq to Afghanistan, where violence has been increasing.
"If only it were that easy. We're not going to have the capabilities26 in Afghanistan that we have in Iraq. The Afghan army is much smaller than the Iraqi army and much less well developed," he said. "The U.S. is not going to have the capacity to surge in Afghanistan nearly to the extent that it did in Iraq. And then the sanctuary27 provided by Pakistan makes the situation much more complicated. Afghanistan is actually in some ways a harder problem at this point."
Still, John Nagl says there are some key lessons from General Petraeus' counterinsurgency doctrine, and his success in Iraq that he should be able to apply to Afghanistan.
"The principles of counterinsurgency that General Petraeus employed so effectively in Iraq, in fact, have much to teach us about a better approach to the war in Afghanistan, which is not going well. Perhaps, the most important of those lessons is the absolute necessity to create security on the ground. And, the only way to do that in a lasting28 way is to put ground troops in," said Nagl. "So, we need to bring more troops onto the ground; we need a surge for Afghanistan, absolutely, of several brigades. And I expect and I hope to see that in 2009."
President Bush announced what some see as the first installment29 of the Afghanistan surge last week, but with other units scheduled to depart, it only amounts to about 1,500 troops, and not until February. Officials say gains in Iraq are still fragile, so they cannot shift resources to Afghanistan too quickly. If the situation continues to improve in Iraq, General Petraeus may get at least some of the additional troops he needs for Afghanistan, but not until well into next year. And that will depend on decisions made by the new U.S. president, who has not even been elected yet.
As if the war in Iraq were not a complex enough challenge, General Petraeus will now have to balance continuing needs here with his new responsibilities in Afghanistan, concerns about insurgent and terrorist safe havens30 in Pakistan and the policies of a new commander-in-chief back in Washington.
1 momentous | |
adj.重要的,重大的 | |
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2 destined | |
adj.命中注定的;(for)以…为目的地的 | |
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3 plunge | |
v.跳入,(使)投入,(使)陷入;猛冲 | |
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4 legacy | |
n.遗产,遗赠;先人(或过去)留下的东西 | |
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5 insurgent | |
adj.叛乱的,起事的;n.叛乱分子 | |
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6 toll | |
n.过路(桥)费;损失,伤亡人数;v.敲(钟) | |
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7 defense | |
n.防御,保卫;[pl.]防务工事;辩护,答辩 | |
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8 lavish | |
adj.无节制的;浪费的;vt.慷慨地给予,挥霍 | |
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9 analyst | |
n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家 | |
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10 analysts | |
分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 ) | |
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11 spectrum | |
n.谱,光谱,频谱;范围,幅度,系列 | |
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12 retired | |
adj.隐退的,退休的,退役的 | |
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13 lieutenant | |
n.陆军中尉,海军上尉;代理官员,副职官员 | |
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14 implement | |
n.(pl.)工具,器具;vt.实行,实施,执行 | |
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15 analytical | |
adj.分析的;用分析法的 | |
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16 doctrine | |
n.教义;主义;学说 | |
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17 skeptic | |
n.怀疑者,怀疑论者,无神论者 | |
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18 helping | |
n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的,辅助的 | |
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19 increment | |
n.增值,增价;提薪,增加工资 | |
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20 militia | |
n.民兵,民兵组织 | |
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21 tribal | |
adj.部族的,种族的 | |
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22 insurgents | |
n.起义,暴动,造反( insurgent的名词复数 ) | |
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23 logic | |
n.逻辑(学);逻辑性 | |
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24 reconciliation | |
n.和解,和谐,一致 | |
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25 subsided | |
v.(土地)下陷(因在地下采矿)( subside的过去式和过去分词 );减弱;下降至较低或正常水平;一下子坐在椅子等上 | |
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26 capabilities | |
n.能力( capability的名词复数 );可能;容量;[复数]潜在能力 | |
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27 sanctuary | |
n.圣所,圣堂,寺庙;禁猎区,保护区 | |
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28 lasting | |
adj.永久的,永恒的;vbl.持续,维持 | |
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29 installment | |
n.(instalment)分期付款;(连载的)一期 | |
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30 havens | |
n.港口,安全地方( haven的名词复数 )v.港口,安全地方( haven的第三人称单数 ) | |
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