VOA标准英语2008年-Analysts Say Somalia Peace Deal Too Weak

As fighting rages on in the Somali capital Mogadishu, international stakeholders in Somalia are urging the country's transitional federal government and an Islamist-led opposition¹ faction² to implement³ a cease-fire agreement outlined in a recently-signed peace deal. But as VOA Correspondent Alisha Ryu reports from our East Africa Bureau in Nairobi, the deal is now viewed as being too weak to produce any results.

Last Tuesday, the United Nations special envoy⁴ to Somalia opened a conference in Djibouti attended by a number of stakeholders. They included representatives from Britain, Canada, Italy, Norway, Sweden, the United States, the African Union, the League of Arab States, and the European Union.

Known collectively as the International Contact Group, the group urged the two principle signatories of the June 9 Somali peace pact⁵ to implement a comprehensive cease-fire to allow a timely withdrawal⁶ of Ethiopian troops from Somalia and the deployment⁷ of an international stabilization⁸ force.

But the Somalia analyst⁹ for International Crisis Group, Rashid Abdi, points out a critical flaw in the peace pact, which Abdi and other observers say is at the heart of the problems confronting the international community.

"You have essentially¹⁰ a deal between two weak parties, that is the transitional federal government and an ARS faction, which has very little control on the ground," said Abdi. "I think the hope among the members of the international community who is spearheading this process is that the more this process continues and gains momentum¹¹, the more attractive it will become for the moderate factions¹² within the militant¹³ groups to come on board."
　
Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, leader of the Council of Islamic Courts (File photo)

The ARS faction Abdi refers to is a faction led by Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, the moderate Islamist leader who signed the peace deal on behalf of the Eritrea-based Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia opposition group.

The alliance has long demanded the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops, who intervened in Somalia in late 2006 to end the six-month rule of the Islamic Courts Union. Ethiopia then installed Somalia's western-friendly interim¹⁴ government in its place. Ahmed and other prominent leaders of the courts encouraged a violent anti-government, anti-Ethiopian insurgency¹⁵ in Somalia.

The fighting between insurgents¹⁷ and Ethiopian and Somali government troops killed thousands of people and displaced more than one million others, creating the worst humanitarian¹⁸ crisis since the fall of the last government in 1991. Both sides were accused of committing war crimes against civilians¹⁹.

Ahmed and his supporters in the ARS agreed to open indirect talks with the Somali government to find a way to end the insurgency. In a recent interview with VOA, Ahmed explained why he agreed to negotiate.

He says ordinary Somalis needed peace and they supported his view that negotiating was the best way to achieve it.
　
Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys (File photo)

But Ahmed's conciliatory stance was bitterly opposed by hardliners in the ARS, led by Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys. The hardliners in Asmara and their allies in Somalia, including a homegrown militant al-Qaida-linked group called the Shabab, said the insurgency would continue until all Ethiopian troops left Somali soil. They also warned the international community not to send foreign peacekeepers to Somalia.

Since June, insurgent¹⁶ attacks on Ethiopian troops and African Union peacekeepers have soared, prompting the U.N. Security Council to announce that no U.N. peacekeepers would be sent to Somalia until the security situation there improved.

Meanwhile, news that Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed was negotiating with the Ethiopian-backed government shocked and confused many supporters of the ousted²⁰ Islamic Courts Union. Many viewed the move as a betrayal of Islam and Somali nationalism.

Abdi says by the time Ahmed formally signed the peace pact last month, his credibility as an opposition leader was being openly questioned.

"He enjoys some support but that does not mean the overwhelming number of people who have arms actually listen to him. And in the last few months, he has lost a considerable amount of authority. So, to expect Sheik Sharif on his own to pull off a cease-fire, I think, is unrealistic," added Abdi.

The situation within Somalia's transitional federal government is equally unsettled.
　
Abdullahi Yusuf (file photo)

A rift²¹ between President Abdullahi Yusuf and Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein, which erupted in July over the firing of Mogadishu Mayor Mohamed Dheere has only deepened in recent weeks. One Somali parliament member tells VOA that the political in-fighting inside the TFG has left the government existing only on paper and Ethiopia is becoming increasingly frustrated²² that its military has to bear the burden of protecting it.

An independent U.S.-based Somalia observer Michael Weinstein argues that although there have been growing disagreements among factions in the Islamist movement, the chaos²³ inside the Somali government has been far worse.

He says that has allowed insurgents to re-establish Islamist control in many parts of the country.

"They are using this window of opportunity very well to provide security, settle clan²⁴ differences, institute [Islamic law] Sharia, which is rooting their power like they never rooted in 2006. They are in control of more than half of south-central Somalia," said Weinstein. "Why should they negotiate with anyone? Nobody is going to be able to displace them. The Ethiopians are on the ropes. The TFG is incapable²⁵ of defending itself. Consequences of it will be a consolidation²⁶ of the Islamist insurgency on the ground."

The peace conference that opened in Djibouti last week ended three days later without a cease-fire agreement.

There has been no word from the International Contact Group whether the talks will resume at a later time.

1 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

2 faction   

n.宗派，小集团；派别；派系斗争

参考例句：

• Faction and self-interest appear to be the norm.派系之争和自私自利看来非常普遍。
• I now understood clearly that I was caught between the king and the Bunam's faction.我现在完全明白自己已陷入困境，在国王与布纳姆集团之间左右为难。

3 implement   

n.(pl.)工具，器具；vt.实行，实施，执行

参考例句：

• Don't undertake a project unless you can implement it.不要承担一项计划，除非你能完成这项计划。
• The best implement for digging a garden is a spade.在花园里挖土的最好工具是铁锹。

4 envoy   

n.使节，使者，代表，公使

参考例句：

• Their envoy showed no sign of responding to our proposals.他们的代表对我方的提议毫无回应的迹象。
• The government has not yet appointed an envoy to the area.政府尚未向这一地区派过外交官。

5 pact   

n.合同，条约，公约，协定

参考例句：

• The two opposition parties made an electoral pact.那两个反对党订了一个有关选举的协定。
• The trade pact between those two countries came to an end.那两国的通商协定宣告结束。

6 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

7 deployment   

n. 部署,展开

参考例句：

• He has inquired out the deployment of the enemy troops. 他已查出敌军的兵力部署情况。
• Quality function deployment (QFD) is a widely used customer-driven quality, design and manufacturing management tool. 质量功能展开(quality function deployment,QFD)是一个广泛应用的顾客需求驱动的设计、制造和质量管理工具。

8 Stabilization   

稳定化

参考例句：

• The position of barycentre on plane directly impacts the stabilization and manipulation of plane. 飞机重心位置直接影响飞机的稳定和操纵特性。
• With the higher olefins, stabilization of the energetic intermediates occurs more easily. 在较高的烯烃情况下，高能的中间物稳定作用更易出现。

9 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

10 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

11 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

12 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

13 militant   

adj.激进的，好斗的；n.激进分子，斗士

参考例句：

• Some militant leaders want to merge with white radicals.一些好斗的领导人要和白人中的激进派联合。
• He is a militant in the movement.他在那次运动中是个激进人物。

14 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。

15 insurgency   

n.起义；暴动；叛变

参考例句：

• And as in China, unrest and even insurgency are widespread. 而在中国，动乱甚至暴乱都普遍存在。 来自互联网
• Dr Zyphur is part an insurgency against this idea. 塞弗博士是这一观点逆流的一部分。 来自互联网

16 insurgent   

adj.叛乱的，起事的；n.叛乱分子

参考例句：

• Faruk says they are threatened both by insurgent and government forces.法鲁克说，他们受到暴乱分子和政府军队的双重威胁。
• The insurgent mob assembled at the gate of the city park.叛变的暴徒聚在市立公园的门口。

17 insurgents   

n.起义，暴动，造反( insurgent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The regular troops of Baden joined the insurgents. 巴登的正规军参加到起义军方面来了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Against the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, these problems are manageable. 要对付塔利班与伊拉克叛乱分子，这些问题还是可以把握住的。 来自互联网

18 humanitarian   

n.人道主义者，博爱者，基督凡人论者

参考例句：

• She has many humanitarian interests and contributes a lot to them.她拥有很多慈善事业，并作了很大的贡献。
• The British government has now suspended humanitarian aid to the area.英国政府现已暂停对这一地区的人道主义援助。

19 civilians   

平民，百姓( civilian的名词复数 )； 老百姓

参考例句：

• the bloody massacre of innocent civilians 对无辜平民的血腥屠杀
• At least 300 civilians are unaccounted for after the bombing raids. 遭轰炸袭击之后，至少有300名平民下落不明。

20 ousted   

驱逐( oust的过去式和过去分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• He was ousted as chairman. 他的主席职务被革除了。
• He may be ousted by a military takeover. 他可能在一场军事接管中被赶下台。

21 rift   

n.裂口，隙缝，切口；v.裂开，割开，渗入

参考例句：

• He was anxious to mend the rift between the two men.他急于弥合这两个人之间的裂痕。
• The sun appeared through a rift in the clouds.太阳从云层间隙中冒出来。

22 frustrated   

adj.挫败的，失意的，泄气的v.使不成功( frustrate的过去式和过去分词 )；挫败；使受挫折；令人沮丧

参考例句：

• It's very easy to get frustrated in this job. 这个工作很容易令人懊恼。
• The bad weather frustrated all our hopes of going out. 恶劣的天气破坏了我们出行的愿望。 来自《简明英汉词典》

23 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

24 clan   

n.氏族，部落，宗族，家族，宗派

参考例句：

• She ranks as my junior in the clan.她的辈分比我小。
• The Chinese Christians,therefore,practically excommunicate themselves from their own clan.所以，中国的基督徒简直是被逐出了自己的家族了。

25 incapable   

adj.无能力的，不能做某事的

参考例句：

• He would be incapable of committing such a cruel deed.他不会做出这么残忍的事。
• Computers are incapable of creative thought.计算机不会创造性地思维。

26 consolidation   

n.合并,巩固

参考例句：

• The denser population necessitates closer consolidation both for internal and external action. 住得日益稠密的居民，对内和对外都不得不更紧密地团结起来。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• The state ensures the consolidation and growth of the state economy. 国家保障国营经济的巩固和发展。 来自汉英非文学 - 中国宪法