VOA标准英语2009年-China's Economy Shows Signs of Recover

As 2009 draws to a close, more signs show that China has weathered the global financial crisis and is on its way to even more robust¹ growth. Economists³, however, say some issues still weigh on the country's efforts to sustain growth.

Connie Young | Beijing 15 December 2009

"If you're an optimist⁴ it suggests that recovery is continuing," finance professor Michael Pettis says.

As 2009 draws to a close, more signs show that China has weathered the global financial crisis and is on its way to even more robust growth.  Economists, however, say some issues still weigh on the country's efforts to sustain growth.

New economic data show that China's gross domestic product is expected to grow by more than eight percent this year. Industrial output for November grew just over 19 percent compared with a year ago, just after the financial crisis began. Imports soared nearly 27 percent, fueled by government spending on commodities.

But while exports show signs of recovery, they remain weak. In November, they were down about one percent from a year ago.

Michael Pettis, an associate for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a finance professor at Peking University, says that the figures fuel debate over the country's economic strength.

"If you're an optimist it suggests that recovery is continuing," Pettis said. "Most of the numbers look reasonably good. There were still some excessively high levels of investment especially fixed⁵ asset investments. But production numbers were good etc. If you're a pessimist⁶ you would say yeah, this is exactly what you would expect from a massive-over investment strategy."

Some business experts worry that exports will become a smaller part of the economy. Factories face rising labor⁷ and overhead costs, and there are expectations the currency, the yuan will appreciate, so business leaders say keeping the sector⁸ afloat remains⁹ a challenge for the government.

Stanley Lau, deputy chairman of the Federation¹⁰ of Hong Kong Industries, which represents Hong Kong businesses in China, says factories face weak foreign demand.

"First of all, generally still, many importers do not know what will be the outcome for Christmas sales," Lau noted¹¹. "Which means many customers are still waiting for final figures to come out for Christmas sales. That's why they don't give us an order for next year yet. I think they need to wait and see until the New Year holidays and they will plan for order for next year."

As export demand started to fall last year, China's government began efforts to stimulate¹² the economy - cutting interest rates, encouraging lending and spending hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure¹³ projects.

But some economists warn those efforts may be causing prices for real estate, stocks and other assets to rise too fast - like a bubble that could burst. They say that China's loose credit, over-investment and under-consumption has led to a potential hazard, particularly in the property market.

However, the government has begun trying to slow things down. Figures from the Banking¹⁴ Regulatory Commission show that in 2009 new lending will hit about $1.3 trillion, but next year it will fall to about $1.1 trillion. That is still double 2008 lending.

The government also is trying to cool the overheated property market, with a new sales tax on properties sold within five years of purchase. And there are plans to increase the supply of middle to low-priced housing to curb¹⁵ property speculation¹⁶.

Andy Xie, an independent economist² in Shanghai, warns China's property market could suffer once the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank raises interest rates, which would affect lending around the world.

"When inflation happens the Fed will have to raise interest rates substantially, which will lead to a global asset bubble popping and there will be another global crisis. And this global crisis may rival the one we just saw," he said.

Economists such as Xie and Pettis warn that governments must move carefully as they wind down stimulus¹⁷ packages. Raising interest rates and cutting spending too soon could easily shock economies and cause asset prices to collapse¹⁸.

 

1 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 optimist   

n.乐观的人，乐观主义者

参考例句：

• We are optimist and realist.我们是乐观主义者，又是现实主义者。
• Peter,ever the optimist,said things were bound to improve.一向乐观的皮特说，事情必定是会好转的。

5 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

6 pessimist   

n.悲观者；悲观主义者；厌世

参考例句：

• An optimist laughs to forget.A pessimist forgets to laugh.乐观者笑着忘却，悲观者忘记怎样笑。
• The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity.The optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty.悲观者在每个机会中都看到困难，乐观者在每个困难中都看到机会。

7 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

8 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

9 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

10 federation   

n.同盟，联邦，联合，联盟，联合会

参考例句：

• It is a federation of 10 regional unions.它是由十个地方工会结合成的联合会。
• Mr.Putin was inaugurated as the President of the Russian Federation.普京正式就任俄罗斯联邦总统。

11 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

12 stimulate   

vt.刺激，使兴奋；激励，使…振奋

参考例句：

• Your encouragement will stimulate me to further efforts.你的鼓励会激发我进一步努力。
• Success will stimulate the people for fresh efforts.成功能鼓舞人们去作新的努力。

13 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

14 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

15 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

16 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

17 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

18 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。