VOA标准英语2009年-Analysts: Hugo Chavez Remains Strong as Ve

Venezuela's economy is struggling, weighed down by declining oil revenues, and the mandates¹ and initiatives of President Hugo Chavez's brand of socialism. So says a panel of Venezuelan economists³ and analysts⁵ who are visiting Washington this week. Although experts say the Venezuelan economy is underperforming, they do not foresee a collapse⁶ that would loosen Mr. Chavez's grip on power.
　
Hugo Chavez (file photo)

Earlier this year, Hugo Chavez boasted that, thanks to his leadership, Venezuela had insulated itself from the global financial crisis and the worldwide economic slowdown.

The Venezuelan leader said his country has been left untouched by a crisis that threatens the world. Mr. Chavez said the crisis could affect Venezuela, but that, "by the grace of God," 10 years ago the country embarked⁷ on a [Simon] Bolivarian revolution to protect the nation, its workers and families.

But after years of rapid economic expansion fueled by oil revenues that grew eight-fold from 2000 to 2008, Venezuela's economy is stagnating⁸, according to Caracas-based economist² Asdrubal Oliveros who spoke⁹ at the American Enterprise Institute here in Washington.

Oliveros says Venezuela's gross domestic product is expected to fall by a half percent this year, with the country's oil industry shrinking by nearly eight percent. The economist states that it is oil revenue that guarantees the viability¹⁰ of the Chavez economic model.

That model combines massive social spending with increasing government control and regulation of industry. The Venezuelan-born editor of Foreign Policy magazine, Moises Naim, describes the Chavez economic plan this way.

"Hitting the brakes while also hitting the gas at the same time," he said.

Naim and other panelists note that, until recently, record-high oil revenues and unprecedented¹¹ government spending sent the consumption of goods and services into overdrive in Venezuela. At the same time, government price controls and state takeovers of key industries have decimated domestic production. The results have been rampant¹² shortages of food and consumer goods as well as runaway¹³ inflation, which stands at roughly 30 percent per year - the highest in Latin America.

Venezuelan political analyst⁴ Luis Vicente Leon sees a vicious circle that begins with private sector¹⁴ fears of government expropriation.

"Fear means private disinvestment, [the] fall of supplies, price increases, shortages, popular pressures [for government action], Chavez looking for a scapegoat¹⁵, the takeover of companies to control the situation - etcetera, etcetera, etcetera," Leon said.

To make matters worse, notes Moises Naim, Venezuela has underinvested in its oil industry.

"Venezuela today has the cheapest gasoline in the world. It is no surprise that gasoline consumption in Venezuela has gone through the roof. The more you consume domestically, the less is left for you to export," Naim said.

And yet Venezuela's stagnant¹⁶ economy could out-perform most of those in the region this year. The World Bank projects a 2.2 percent drop in GDP across Latin America, with Brazil's economy contracting by 1.1 percent, Argentina by 1.5 percent, and Mexico by nearly six percent.

Analyst Luis Vicente Leon says that despite the constant threat of government takeovers, investors¹⁷ are not fleeing Venezuela.

"Even in the middle of a crisis, we have a lot of money going around in Venezuela. The majority of Venezuelan investors are still in Venezuela, because Venezuela is a mine. It is an oil mine," he said.

Moises Naim adds that the economic slowdown does not constitute a serious challenge for President Chavez.

"Reports of the imminent¹⁸ collapse of the Venezuelan economy have been widely exaggerated. That has not happened and I do not think it will happen," Naim said. "I think that the combination of highly-concentrated political power and economic power derived¹⁹ from oil, regardless of the price, can generate a very long life for this regime."

The global financial crisis has also given President Chavez a rhetorical tool domestically and on the world stage. Again and again, the Venezuelan leader has stated that the crisis has exposed the United States as bankrupt and capitalism²⁰ as a failure - and that he is more determined²¹ than ever to press ahead with what he terms "21st century socialism."

1 mandates   

托管（mandate的第三人称单数形式）

参考例句：

• Individual mandates would require all people to purchase health insurance. 个人托管要求所有人都要购买健康保险。
• While I agree with those benefits, I'm not a supporter of mandates. 我同意上述好处，我不是授权软件的支持者。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

5 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

6 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

7 embarked   

乘船( embark的过去式和过去分词 )； 装载； 从事

参考例句：

• We stood on the pier and watched as they embarked. 我们站在突码头上目送他们登船。
• She embarked on a discourse about the town's origins. 她开始讲本市的起源。

8 stagnating   

v.停滞，不流动，不发展( stagnate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• I feel I'm stagnating in this job. 我觉得，干这份工作我没有长进。
• ITT was stagnating when Geneen became the chief executive officer in 1959. 1959年吉宁出任行政总负责人时，国际电话电报公司正处于不景气时期。 来自辞典例句

9 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

10 viability   

n.存活(能力)

参考例句：

• What is required to achieve or maintain such viability? 要达到或维持这种生存能力需要什么？
• Scientists are experimenting to find ways to ensure the viability of seeds for even longer periods of time. 正如我们所说，科学家正在试验努力寻找让种子的生命力更加延长的方法。

11 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

12 rampant   

adj.(植物)蔓生的；狂暴的，无约束的

参考例句：

• Sickness was rampant in the area.该地区疾病蔓延。
• You cannot allow children to rampant through the museum.你不能任由小孩子在博物馆里乱跑。

13 runaway   

n.逃走的人，逃亡，亡命者；adj.逃亡的，逃走的

参考例句：

• The police have not found the runaway to date.警察迄今没抓到逃犯。
• He was praised for bringing up the runaway horse.他勒住了脱缰之马受到了表扬。

14 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

15 scapegoat   

n.替罪的羔羊，替人顶罪者；v.使…成为替罪羊

参考例句：

• He has been made a scapegoat for the company's failures.他成了公司倒闭的替罪羊。
• They ask me to join the party so that I'll be their scapegoat when trouble comes.他们想叫我入伙，出了乱子，好让我替他们垫背。

16 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

17 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

18 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

19 derived   

vi.起源；由来；衍生；导出v.得到( derive的过去式和过去分词 )；（从…中）得到获得；源于；（从…中）提取

参考例句：

• Many English words are derived from Latin and Greek. 英语很多词源出于拉丁文和希腊文。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He derived his enthusiasm for literature from his father. 他对文学的爱好是受他父亲的影响。 来自《简明英汉词典》

20 capitalism   

n.资本主义

参考例句：

• The essence of his argument is that capitalism cannot succeed.他的论点的核心是资本主义不能成功。
• Capitalism began to develop in Russia in the 19th century.十九世纪资本主义在俄国开始发展。

21 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。