VOA英语2010年-New Study Predicts Tensions Over Middle East

Water is a scarce resource in the desert regions of the Middle East. Though disputes over water have come close to triggering wars between nations of the region in the past, diplomats¹ intervened to keep tensions to a minimum. Now a new study suggests that over the next 20 years, water shortages could trigger unrest within national borders instead of between the nations of the Middle East.

In the past, Middle East scholars have often pointed² to shared river basins and disputes over underground water rights as causes for potential conflict between nations. That may not be surprising, because 10 of the 15 most water-poor countries in the world are in the region. But according to a new study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, in Washington, limited supplies of underground water within national borders of the Middle East pose a more immediate³ challenge.

Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at CSIS and author of the new study, says water is a fundamental part of the social contract in Middle Eastern countries.

"Water is deeply tied in to how all these governments work," noted⁴ Alterman. "Water is a way to reward people; water is a way to build allegiances, and water is a sign that a government can actually do things. If the water goes away then suddenly the whole deal that holds the government together goes away. That is a fundamental problem for these governments and the people who live under them."

Alterman argues that the water problem in the Middle East grew out of the "green revolution" that swept the region between 1980 and 1992. During that period, underground water was heavily used to sustain agriculture, feed the growing populations and to irrigate⁵ the desert as a form of national pride. He says the depletion⁶ of such groundwater resources will have lasting⁷ consequences for how Middle Eastern governments function and deal with their citizens.

Alterman says another problem related to water supplies is the movement of peoples from rural areas the cities. This migration⁸, he says, further reduces groundwater supplies and increases tensions among ethnic⁹ or national factions¹⁰.

"The first thing is to understand that there is a problem," added Alterman. "The principal problem, the real problem, is access to water within countries. Countries' water resources are going dry. It requires individual national governments to think not only about supply but also of ways to diminish the demand for water."

To help out on the supply side of water resources, a Center for Strategic and International Studies study suggests that governments should consider using treated wastewater for irrigation. On the demand side, the study recommends that countries impose strict water pricing systems and offer incentives¹¹ for conservation. It will be also crucial to educate people about appropriate use of water.

If serious action is not taken, Alterman warns, for example, that Sana'a, Yemen will run out of groundwater in 2017, resulting in political and social unrest.

General Anthony Zinni, former commander of the U.S. Central Command, argues global cooperation is needed to prevent instability in Middle East over water shortages.

"This needs to be a global issue, not just an individual country issue," said Zinni. "I do think there have to be regional approaches and regional strategies. I know some have advocated very specific, small number of strategies, maybe one for every nation or society. I don't think that will work. These water resources span a number of societies. These are regional and maybe super-regional issues."

Zinni points out, for example, that sharing water resources will be a major issue in any peaceful settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The former U.S. Middle East envoy¹² also cites past disputes between Syria and Turkey over waters from the Euphrates River and the ongoing¹³ tensions between Egypt and some African countries over water from the Nile River basin.

"I think, given other tensions, that [water shortages] could erupt and just throw another log on the fire in many cases [cause additional problems]. I think the U.S. role in trying to help develop regional strategies, bring parties together, share technology, global attention, non-governmental organizations, and international organizations that deal with water issues - somehow gaining their cooperation and involvement in this process too," added Zinni.

General Zinni echoes the conclusion of the new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies: that skilled governance and diplomacy¹⁴ will be needed to prevent water shortages in the Middle East from triggering widespread conflict.

1 diplomats   

n.外交官( diplomat的名词复数 )；有手腕的人，善于交际的人

参考例句：

• These events led to the expulsion of senior diplomats from the country. 这些事件导致一些高级外交官被驱逐出境。
• The court has no jurisdiction over foreign diplomats living in this country. 法院对驻本国的外交官无裁判权。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

3 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

4 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

5 irrigate   

vt.灌溉，修水利，冲洗伤口，使潮湿

参考例句：

• The farmer dug several trenches to irrigate the rice fields.这个农民挖了好几条沟以灌溉稻田。
• They have built canals to irrigate the desert.他们建造成水渠以灌溉沙漠。

6 depletion   

n.耗尽，枯竭

参考例句：

• Increased consumption of water has led to rapid depletion of groundwater reserves.用水量的增加导致了地下水贮备迅速枯竭。
• Farmers should rotate crops every season to prevent depletion of the soil.农夫每季应该要轮耕，以免耗尽土壤。

7 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

8 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

9 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

10 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

11 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

12 envoy   

n.使节，使者，代表，公使

参考例句：

• Their envoy showed no sign of responding to our proposals.他们的代表对我方的提议毫无回应的迹象。
• The government has not yet appointed an envoy to the area.政府尚未向这一地区派过外交官。

13 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

14 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。