VOA标准英语2010年-Iranian Opposition Battered, But Still

Hundreds of thousands of supporters of leading opposition¹ presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi turned out to protest the results of the last June's election at a mass rally in Tehran, Iran (Monday, June 15, 2009)

Iran's opposition "Green Movement" caught the world's attention a year ago, with thousands of people protesting the results of a presidential election many say lacked credibility.  The Islamic Republic responded with force.

A young woman, Neda Agha-Soltan, was among those who died in the violence and her death reverberated² around the world.

In June, 2009 Iranians went to the polls to vote on their next president. The incumbent³, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was announced as the overwhelming winner. But many Iranians refused to believe it and took to the streets in protest.

Authorities responded with violence. And to much of the world, Iran's presidential election became represented by the image of the shooting death of a young woman, Neda Agha-Soltan, recorded on a shaky camera phone.

It is now a year later. The protests have largely ended. The question today is whether that "Green Movement" opposition in Iran still has strength.

Abbas Milani, an analyst⁴ at The Hoover Institution, said, "I certainly know of no time in Iranian history where the democratic discourse⁵, and the social basis of democracy have been as strong."

Another analyst, Karim Sadjadpour at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says the state's repression⁶ makes mobilization and action difficult. "They are operating under incredibly difficult circumstances right now. [They are] under virtual house arrest. All of their communication is being monitored. [Opposition presidential candidate Mir Hossein] Mousavi's nephew was brutally⁷ murdered. [Opposition presidential candidate Mehdi] Karroubi's son was savagely⁸ beaten. And, I think, under those circumstances, it is going to be very difficult for them to organize a stratagem⁹ moving forward," he said.

 

While this past year has been a challenge for the opposition Green Movement, senior scholar Gary Sick of Columbia University says that in the aftermath of the election, the Iranian government also faces a huge challenge. He says it has lost its control of the streets. "In the old days, the old days being in [Ayatollah] Khomeini's day, and shortly after the [1979] revolution, the regime trusted the [people in] the street. They are the ones who put on demonstrations¹⁰. They are the ones who got people out. They are the ones that had millions marching in the street. Today they [the government] don't dare," he said.

Analyst Ali Alfoneh at the conservative American Enterprise Institute says there has been another development over the past year - the opposition has split into two differing factions¹¹. "The leadership of the Green Movement - gentlemen such as former President Mr. Mohammed Khatami, former Chairman of the Parliament, Mr. Mehdi Karrubi, and former Prime Minister Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi - still believe that the Islamic Republic can be reformed within the framework of the constitution. The rank-and-file members of the Green Movement, they have reached the unfortunate conclusion that now that the regime cannot be reformed in a peaceful way, we have to pursue other means. And, we have to revolutionize the system, and overthrow¹² the system they cannot reform," he said.

Historically, analysts¹³ say, government efforts to suppress protest and reform have only fueled and spread the fires of change. That appears to be the situation in Iran as well, says Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. But, he says, there should be caution regarding outside efforts to push that forward.

"There is the danger that the more this power structure, basically, tries to enforce broader controls, [and] becomes more abusive, more selective and more corrupt¹⁴, it creates the opposition that will eventually destroy it. The danger, I think, lies in the fact that this [the Islamic Republic] is not fragile. It is not something the Green Movement can easily deal with. And, there is a serious problem when you use the term 'regime change' that you might encourage people to demonstrate, or to act in ways, where we [people outside Iran] can do absolutely nothing to protect or encourage them," he said.

Cordesman points out that Iran's constitution, if followed properly, provides a means of change and reform, if indeed parties are willing to work within its structure.
 

1 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

2 reverberated   

回响，回荡( reverberate的过去式和过去分词 )； 使反响，使回荡，使反射

参考例句：

• Her voice reverberated around the hall. 她的声音在大厅里回荡。
• The roar of guns reverberated in the valley. 炮声响彻山谷。

3 incumbent   

adj.成为责任的，有义务的；现任的，在职的

参考例句：

• He defeated the incumbent governor by a large plurality.他以压倒多数票击败了现任州长。
• It is incumbent upon you to warn them.你有责任警告他们。

4 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

5 discourse   

n.论文，演说；谈话；话语；vi.讲述，著述

参考例句：

• We'll discourse on the subject tonight.我们今晚要谈论这个问题。
• He fell into discourse with the customers who were drinking at the counter.他和站在柜台旁的酒客谈了起来。

6 repression   

n.镇压，抑制，抑压

参考例句：

• The repression of your true feelings is harmful to your health.压抑你的真实感情有害健康。
• This touched off a new storm against violent repression.这引起了反对暴力镇压的新风暴。

7 brutally   

adv.残忍地，野蛮地，冷酷无情地

参考例句：

• The uprising was brutally put down.起义被残酷地镇压下去了。
• A pro-democracy uprising was brutally suppressed.一场争取民主的起义被残酷镇压了。

8 savagely   

adv. 野蛮地，残酷地

参考例句：

• The roses had been pruned back savagely. 玫瑰被狠狠地修剪了一番。
• He snarled savagely at her. 他向她狂吼起来。

9 stratagem   

n.诡计，计谋

参考例句：

• Knit the brows and a stratagem comes to mind.眉头一皱，计上心来。
• Trade discounts may be used as a competitive stratagem to secure customer loyalty.商业折扣可以用作维护顾客忠诚度的一种竞争策略。

10 demonstrations   

证明( demonstration的名词复数 )； 表明； 表达； 游行示威

参考例句：

• Lectures will be interspersed with practical demonstrations. 讲课中将不时插入实际示范。
• The new military government has banned strikes and demonstrations. 新的军人政府禁止罢工和示威活动。

11 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

12 overthrow   

v.推翻，打倒，颠覆；n.推翻，瓦解，颠覆

参考例句：

• After the overthrow of the government,the country was in chaos.政府被推翻后，这个国家处于混乱中。
• The overthrow of his plans left him much discouraged.他的计划的失败使得他很气馁。

13 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

14 corrupt   

v.贿赂，收买；adj.腐败的，贪污的

参考例句：

• The newspaper alleged the mayor's corrupt practices.那家报纸断言市长有舞弊行为。
• This judge is corrupt.这个法官贪污。