VOA标准英语2011-Asia Experiences Huge Birth-Rate Decline

Approximately 6.6 billion people populate the earth today, with an estimated 3.7 billion living in Asia. But over the past 50 years, economic and social modernization¹ in the region has been accompanied by a remarkable² drop in birth rates. Sociologists, demographers³ and researchers are following the trend, and new research is providing more details to explain lower birth rates.

Many complex and subtle social and economic issues affect individual choices of when, or if to have children. But overall, basic trends are prevalent. A recent study by the East-West center in Hawaii focused on four prosperous Asian societies in Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

Sidney Westley, a Communications Specialist in the Research Program at the East-West Center, said, "In each of these societies, fertility has dropped very steeply, (which) I think (is) surprising demographers. It has fallen faster and fallen to a lower rate than people would probably have anticipated 15 or 20 years ago."

Over the past 20 years, the United Nations says the Asia-Pacific population has been growing, but at a slower rate compared to the rest of the world. Asian fertility fell by 39 percent in a 20-year period from the late 1960s while remaining above the population-replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. By 1990, nearly two-thirds of Asian countries had experienced declines of at least 25 percent.

Minja Choe is Senior Fellow in the Research Program in the area of Population and Health. "Most women like to get married and have about two children in their lives. But a lot of times they do not feel quite ready to do it and by waiting too long, they lose the chance to have two children or they lose the chance to get married," she said.

The study found that Asian women are putting off starting a family amid gains in education, employment and living standards, combined with dramatic breakthroughs in health and family-planning technology.

Bob Retherford, Coordinator⁴ of Population and Health Studies and a Senior Fellow, says those reasons are reflected in two main areas. "One is later marriage and less marriage. And the second major category is lower fertility within marriage," he said.

Population Growth Rates for East and Southeast Asia (1960-2008)

 

He adds a social shift in Asia has also had a significant impact. "And then there is an emergence⁵ of the idea that it is ok to enjoy single life without pressure to get married. That has become socially acceptable. That is a major value change," he said.

Although dating services have gained in popularity, Minja Choe says other social factors and patterns tend to lessen⁶ pregnancy⁷ opportunities. "Families do not spend much time together. A lot of men and women socialize with their men friends and women friends, not much with each other, especially married people," she said.

In Japan, the average age of marriage has risen to 29 for women and 31 for men. Caring for elderly parents, birth control, late marriage and settling into lifestyle without kids, and rapid economic changes that affect hours and careers all affect fertility in the survey area that also includes Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

Minja Choe also notes perhaps one big social difference between Asian and Western nations. "In these four countries, people do not have children outside marriage. That is unlike European countries and countries like America, Australia, New Zealand, other low fertility countries," she said.

With the declining birth trend in Asia, questions arise about how to address the issue, if at all. Economics play a large role. Working women have to give up earnings⁸ as they leave employment to have children. The cost of raising children then becomes a factor, especially if mothers have a difficult challenge returning to work.

Life Expectancy⁹ Compared to Fertility Rates in East and Southeast Asia (1960-2008)

 

Taiwan recently unveiled a $1.3 billion package of incentives¹⁰ for residents to have babies, giving new mothers at least $100 per month for the first two years of their child's life.

Sidney Westley of the East-West Center says governments can intervene, but as in the United States, Asian lawmakers must be very careful in their approach to employment issues involving new mothers.

"The (U.S.) government gives you $500 a year tax break for each child. It is nothing compared to how much you are losing. They also have got to be very careful because if they force businesses to re-hire women after they have taken time to have babies or punish them in any way, then you are hurting women's employment. Then it starts looking unattractive to employ a woman rather than a man," she said.

Significant fertility declines have also been seen in other surveys conducted in China, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. Strong family planning programs along with low mortality and high adult female literacy correlate with increased economic development in those nations.

Bob Retherford says a balance between individual desires and overall society will at some point have to be reached. "Ideally we want what is good for individuals to be consistent with what is good for society. But that is clearly not the case here. When you are talking about a steady state decline of population of about one third, or more actually in a generation every 30 years, that cannot persist. That is not good for society," he said.

United Nations figures show several countries in East and Southeast Asia (China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam) have already dipped below-replacement fertility levels. Researches do not expect the trends to change over the next several years

1 modernization   

n.现代化，现代化的事物

参考例句：

• This will help us achieve modernization.这有助于我们实现现代化。
• The Chinese people are sure to realize the modernization of their country.中国人民必将实现国家现代化。

2 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

3 demographers   

n.人口统计学( demography的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Demographers, however, point out that the'single" trend will have a profound effect on American institutions. 不过，人口学家们指出，“单身”趋势将对美国的公共机构产生深远的影响。 来自时文部分
• Selectivity of human migration long been the focus of demographers and economists. 人口迁移的选择性一直以来都是人口学家和经济学家关注的焦点。 来自互联网

4 coordinator   

n.协调人

参考例句：

• The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, headed by the Emergency Relief Coordinator, coordinates all UN emergency relief. 联合国人道主义事务协调厅在紧急救济协调员领导下，负责协调联合国的所有紧急救济工作。
• How am I supposed to find the client-relations coordinator? 我怎么才能找到客户关系协调员的办公室？

5 emergence   

n.浮现，显现，出现，（植物）突出体

参考例句：

• The last decade saw the emergence of a dynamic economy.最近10年见证了经济增长的姿态。
• Language emerges and develops with the emergence and development of society.语言是随着社会的产生而产生，随着社会的发展而发展的。

6 lessen   

vt.减少，减轻；缩小

参考例句：

• Regular exercise can help to lessen the pain.经常运动有助于减轻痛感。
• They've made great effort to lessen the noise of planes.他们尽力减小飞机的噪音。

7 pregnancy   

n.怀孕，怀孕期

参考例句：

• Early pregnancy is often accompanied by nausea.怀孕早期常有恶心的现象。
• Smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of miscarriage.怀孕期吸烟会增加流产的危险。

8 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

9 expectancy   

n.期望，预期，（根据概率统计求得）预期数额

参考例句：

• Japanese people have a very high life expectancy.日本人的平均寿命非常长。
• The atomosphere of tense expectancy sobered everyone.这种期望的紧张气氛使每个人变得严肃起来。

10 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法