VOA标准英语2011-Lebanon Ponders its Political Future

Lebanon's political waters remained murky¹ over the weekend, ahead of expected parliamentary consultations² Monday on a new prime minister. The big question on everyone's minds is whether Druse leader Walid Jumblatt will be able to deliver the Hezbollah-led opposition³ enough of his parliament deputies to give them the majority necessary to crown their candidate prime minister.

On Friday, Walid Jumblatt said his party stands with Syria and the resistance, a direct reference to Hezbollah. But he stopped short of saying that he would deliver his 11 members of parliament to the opposition. Lebanese newspapers reported Saturday that Jumblatt met late Friday with the head of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah.

Most Lebanese suspect the political horse-trading will continue until the moment the parliamentary consultations begin - whether that is as scheduled on Monday or if they are postponed⁴ for a second time.

If the opposition - known as the March 8th bloc⁵ - acquires the roughly 65 deputies needed for a majority in the 128-member parliament, then they are likely to back former Prime Minister Omar Karami as their candidate.

Karami has held the office before, most notably⁶ in 2005 when his predecessor⁷ Rafiq Hariri was killed in a massive truck bombing. Karami's pro-Syrian government came under huge public pressure following the assassination⁸, which many Lebanese blamed on Damascus, precipitating⁹ Karami's resignation a couple of weeks later.

If the Western-backed parliament bloc, known as the March 14th coalition¹⁰, hangs on to their slim majority, they will re-nominate the slain¹¹ Hariri's son, Saad, as prime minister. Saad Hariri was toppled from the job 10 days ago, when opposition ministers resigned from the cabinet forcing his government's collapse¹².

Whether on the Lebanese street or among analysts¹³, everyone is discussing Walid Jumblatt and which way his deputies will vote.

Ahmed, a taxi driver in West Beirut says Jumblatt will only be able to offer himself and two of his deputies.

While Mitri, a hairdresser in East Beirut thinks Jumblatt might deliver more.

"I think so, Walid Jumblatt have only five persons," said Mitri.

Samir works in a Beirut hotel. He says he thinks Jumblatt will deliver all eleven of the deputies in his bloc to the opposition.

"Well a hundred percent I guess this time," said Samir. "... Jumblatt is very smart. He just wants to be in the safe way. No matter [if] it gets worse, he just wants to be safe."

Analysts are also weighing in. Michael Young is the Opinion Editor for the English-language newspaper The Daily Star.

"I think while the numbers are not precise, I think six or seven of his MPs will vote with Omar Karami for prime minister," said Young. "He will not be able to bring all his bloc over perhaps to back Karami, but he I think he will bring enough to ensure that Karami wins."

Lebanese American University Political Science Professor Imad Salamey agrees.

"So far it's being said that actually Jumblatt will sway seven votes not in favor of Hariri, however, the Hezbollah will nominate," said Salamey. "So it seems that the prime minister-to-be will be winning nomination¹⁴ on one or two votes, that is about it. Very close call."

Until very recently, Jumblatt supported the premiership of Saad Hariri. Michael Young thinks his recent switch was done under pressure.

"I think he had absolutely no choice," added Young. "I don't think he would consider it a good move. I don't think Jumblatt wanted to get rid of Hariri. Last week he made it clear that he would back Hariri. But in a week he was basically threatened it seems, and he had to go along with the candidate of the opposition of Hezbollah, and it seems at least from now that it will be Omar Karami."

Asked if consultations would go ahead Monday, LAU Professor Imad Salamey said he does not think they will be postponed for further negotiations¹⁵, because he believes Hezbollah and Syria want to move ahead.

"They seem very determined¹⁶ to switch political directions in Lebanon in favor of their camp, particularly March 8," noted¹⁷ Salamey. "They seem also determined to marginalize Hariri and his group. Now the extent to which they can succeed in this is still a matter to be seen."

If Jumblatt plays kingmaker on Monday and the Hezbollah-led opposition candidate succeeds the analysts say Lebanon could be entering a very dark period. They warn that a Hezbollah-led government will isolate¹⁸ the country from the United States and European Union, as well as Sunni Arab governments in the region, having both economic and political repercussions¹⁹ in Lebanon.

1 murky   

adj.黑暗的，朦胧的；adv.阴暗地，混浊地；n.阴暗；昏暗

参考例句：

• She threw it into the river's murky depths.她把它扔进了混浊的河水深处。
• She had a decidedly murky past.她的历史背景令人捉摸不透。

2 consultations   

n.磋商（会议）( consultation的名词复数 )；商讨会；协商会；查找

参考例句：

• Consultations can be arranged at other times by appointment. 磋商可以通过预约安排在其他时间。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Consultations are under way. 正在进行磋商。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

3 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

4 postponed   

vt.& vi.延期，缓办，（使）延迟vt.把…放在次要地位；[语]把…放在后面（或句尾）vi.（疟疾等）延缓发作（或复发）

参考例句：

• The trial was postponed indefinitely. 审讯无限期延迟。
• The game has already been postponed three times. 这场比赛已经三度延期了。

5 bloc   

n.集团；联盟

参考例句：

• A solid bloc of union members support the decision.工会会员团结起来支持该决定。
• There have been growing tensions within the trading bloc.贸易同盟国的关系越来越紧张。

6 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

7 predecessor   

n.前辈，前任

参考例句：

• It will share the fate of its predecessor.它将遭受与前者同样的命运。
• The new ambassador is more mature than his predecessor.新大使比他的前任更成熟一些。

8 assassination   

n.暗杀；暗杀事件

参考例句：

• The assassination of the president brought matters to a head.总统遭暗杀使事态到了严重关头。
• Lincoln's assassination in 1865 shocked the whole nation.1865年，林肯遇刺事件震惊全美国。

9 precipitating   

adj.急落的，猛冲的v.（突如其来地）使发生( precipitate的现在分词 )；促成；猛然摔下；使沉淀

参考例句：

• Precipitating electrode plate is a key part in electrostatic precipitation equipment. 静电收尘板是静电收尘设备中的关键部件。 来自互联网
• The precipitation bond adopts a sloped tube to enhance the precipitating efficiency. 沉淀池采用斜管，提高了沉降效率。 来自互联网

10 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

11 slain   

杀死，宰杀，杀戮( slay的过去分词 )； (slay的过去分词)

参考例句：

• The soldiers slain in the battle were burried that night. 在那天夜晚埋葬了在战斗中牺牲了的战士。
• His boy was dead, slain by the hand of the false Amulius. 他的儿子被奸诈的阿缪利乌斯杀死了。

12 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

13 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

14 nomination   

n.提名，任命，提名权

参考例句：

• John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
• Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。

15 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

16 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

17 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

18 isolate   

vt.使孤立，隔离

参考例句：

• Do not isolate yourself from others.不要把自己孤立起来。
• We should never isolate ourselves from the masses.我们永远不能脱离群众。

19 repercussions   

n.后果，反响( repercussion的名词复数 )；余波

参考例句：

• The collapse of the company will have repercussions for the whole industry. 这家公司的垮台将会给整个行业造成间接的负面影响。
• Human acts have repercussions far beyond the frontiers of the human world. 人类行为所产生的影响远远超出人类世界的范围。 来自《简明英汉词典》