VOA标准英语2011--Study: Climate is Major Violence Trigger

Study: Climate is Major Violence Trigger

A new study in the journal Nature finds that war is associated with global climate.
Researchers from Princeton University and the Earth Institute at Columbia University focused on the natural climate cycle known as El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. This periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters occurs every three to five years - alternating with cooling periods known as La Nina.
The authors tallied¹ some 234 conflicts across 175 countries in Africa, the Middle East, South East Asia, South Pacific and the Americas where more than 25 people were killed in a given year. Half the conflicts caused more than 1,000 battle-related deaths.
Lead author and Princeton University researcher Solomon Hsiang says the work is the first to document a correlation² between climate and civil unrest on a global scale in modern times. “When we went back and looked through the data since 1950 approximately one-in-five civil conflicts were influenced by El Nino.”
That's double the rate of conflict in La Nina years.
Hsiang didn’t expect the magnitude of the effect to be so large. “What it really says is that not only does the climate affect conflict, it’s a major factor in determining global patterns of violence.”
The study does not suggest that climate alone triggers war. But, Hsiang says, combined with other factors it can deliver the final blow.
“It’s very important to remember that political situations, social situations, economic conditions are all very important to the onset³ of organized violence. But what we are finding is that those things when combined with climatic changes seem to make violence more likely.”
Halvard Buhaug, an expert on security and climate issues at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway, says the correlation between climate and conflictis credible⁴. But he adds that if climate is driving violence, the study authors fail to explain why.
“I think it is imperative⁵ to demonstrate that food availability, food prices, crop production etc., vary systematically⁶ with these ENSO cycles in areas where we do observe conflict that are sensitive to the ENSOs. Unless we are able to establish that connection, I think it’s too early to claim a causal relationship here.”
Solomon Hsiang agrees. He says the strong association between climate and conflict deserves more study. “Now what we’re doing is we’re pulling together new datasets and we’re doing additional research to try and dig deeper and figure out what are the underlying⁷ mechanisms⁸ that are really producing this result.”
Forecasters can now predict with greater certainty an El Nino or La Nina cycle two years in advance. Hsiang says the results could have important implications for agriculture and relief services.
“If governments, international organizations or aid groups are able to use those forecasts, the forecasts of El Nino effectively, they might be able to either prepare populations on the ground or themselves prepare their own resources to be in a better situation when conflict breaks out.”
Hsiang believes that information needs to be taken seriously. He notes that forecasters were able to predict the current famine in the Horn of Africa two years ago, but not enough aid arrived in time to mitigate⁹ the human cost of the crisis.

1 tallied   

v.计算，清点( tally的过去式和过去分词 )；加标签（或标记）于；（使）符合；（使）吻合

参考例句：

• The girl tallied them with her eyes for a moment. 新娘用目光把这些化妆品清点了一下。 来自教父部分
• His account of the accident tallied with hers. 他对事故的陈述和她的相吻合。 来自辞典例句

2 correlation   

n.相互关系，相关，关连

参考例句：

• The second group of measurements had a high correlation with the first.第二组测量数据与第一组高度相关。
• A high correlation exists in America between education and economic position.教育和经济地位在美国有极密切的关系。

3 onset   

n.进攻，袭击，开始，突然开始

参考例句：

• The drug must be taken from the onset of the infection.这种药必须在感染的最初期就开始服用。
• Our troops withstood the onset of the enemy.我们的部队抵挡住了敌人的进攻。

4 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

5 imperative   

n.命令，需要；规则；祈使语气；adj.强制的；紧急的

参考例句：

• He always speaks in an imperative tone of voice.他老是用命令的口吻讲话。
• The events of the past few days make it imperative for her to act.过去这几天发生的事迫使她不得不立即行动。

6 systematically   

adv.有系统地

参考例句：

• This government has systematically run down public services since it took office.这一屆政府自上台以来系统地削减了公共服务。
• The rainforest is being systematically destroyed.雨林正被系统地毀灭。

7 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

8 mechanisms   

n.机械( mechanism的名词复数 )；机械装置；[生物学] 机制；机械作用

参考例句：

• The research will provide direct insight into molecular mechanisms. 这项研究将使人能够直接地了解分子的机理。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He explained how the two mechanisms worked. 他解释这两台机械装置是如何工作的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 mitigate   

vt.（使）减轻，（使）缓和

参考例句：

• The government is trying to mitigate the effects of inflation.政府正试图缓和通货膨胀的影响。
• Governments should endeavour to mitigate distress.政府应努力缓解贫困问题。