VOA标准英语2013--NOAA投注超级计算机预测成功

 

NOAA Bets Forecasting Success on Supercomputers NOAA投注超级计算机预测成功

COLLEGE PARK, MARYLAND — Early fall, as hurricane season begins, is the time when many Americans start to closely follow weather reports.

Because predicting the strength and movement of huge storm systems that bring destruction and death is of crucial importance, meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric¹ Administration (NOAA) have invested in supercomputers that allow for better predictions up to as six days in advance of a storm's arrival.

学院公园,马里兰,初秋,飓风季的开始,是很多美国人开始密切关注天气预报。

 

因为预测强度和运动的巨大的风暴,带来毁灭和死亡至关重要,气象学家在美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)已投资于超级计算机,允许更好的预测同样提前六天的暴风雨的到来。

Hurricane Sandy, which hit the U.S. East Coast in October last year, was the second costliest² storm in U.S. history — causing widespread damage and killing³ 285 people. At the time, some blamed meteorologists for not accurately⁴ predicting the path of the storm.

But according to Ben Kyger, Director of Central Operations at NOAA's College Park headquarters, weather forecasting is extremely difficult.

"You’ve got major patterns in the atmosphere, like the jet stream, but you’ve also got little eddies⁵, little currents, little things happening all over the place," he said. "All these little changes are interacting with each other, continuously, all day long. So if you look at it from above, from a satellite, you see the atmosphere moving and churning in big ways and little ways."

Oceans, he says, are another factor because they closely interact with the atmosphere and have a huge effect on storms. In order to improve reliability⁶ of its forecasts, NOAA spent about $20 million on two new supercomputers that started building models of the weather patterns on July 25.

"These computers generate the initial model guidance that the whole forecast process depends on, for all the weather information that you see, with snowstorms, tornadoes⁷, hurricanes, how hot it’s going to be today — all of your weather forecasts start with what comes off of these supercomputers," he said.

While the computational power needed to analyze⁸ data from weather satellites, ground stations and other sources is enormous, human brainpower and experience remains⁹ crucial to accurately predicting temperature, air pressure, humidity and wind speed.

According to Kyger, meteorologists at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction scan the same data the supercomputers get before issuing a forecast.

"They look at lots of different models, assess that and create the five-day forecast," he said. "They have a lot of scientific and subjective¹⁰ knowledge from doing it year after year. They know where the models are strong, where they’re weak and they give us significantly better forecasts than the models would do by themselves."

NOAA issues worldwide forecasts every six hours each day of the year. Access is free — a benefit to countries that cannot afford their own weather service. NOAA has planned upgrades for its weather-predicting supercomputers set for 2015. 

1 atmospheric   

adj.大气的，空气的；大气层的；大气所引起的

参考例句：

• Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation are strongly coupled.海洋表面温度与大气环流是密切相关的。
• Clouds return radiant energy to the surface primarily via the atmospheric window.云主要通过大气窗区向地表辐射能量。

2 costliest   

adj.昂贵的( costly的最高级 )；代价高的；引起困难的；造成损失的

参考例句：

• At 81 billion dollars, Katrina is the costliest natural disaster in American history. “卡特里娜”飓风造成了近810亿美圆的损失，是美国历史上最严重的自然灾难之一。 来自互联网
• Senator John Kerry has proposed a tax on the costliest health plans sold by insurance companies. 参议员约翰？克里(JohnKerry)已经提议对保险公司销售的高价值的保险计划征税。 来自互联网

3 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

4 accurately   

adv.准确地，精确地

参考例句：

• It is hard to hit the ball accurately.准确地击中球很难。
• Now scientists can forecast the weather accurately.现在科学家们能准确地预报天气。

5 eddies   

（水、烟等的）漩涡，涡流( eddy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Viscosity overwhelms the smallest eddies and converts their energy into heat. 粘性制服了最小的旋涡而将其能量转换为热。
• But their work appears to merge in the study of large eddies. 但在大旋涡的研究上，他们的工作看来却殊途同归。

6 reliability   

n.可靠性，确实性

参考例句：

• We mustn't presume too much upon the reliability of such sources.我们不应过分指望这类消息来源的可靠性。
• I can assure you of the reliability of the information.我向你保证这消息可靠。

7 tornadoes   

n.龙卷风，旋风( tornado的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Tornadoes, severe earthquakes, and plagues create wide spread havoc. 龙卷风、大地震和瘟疫成普遍的毁坏。 来自互联网
• Meteorologists are at odds over the working of tornadoes. 气象学者对龙卷风的运动方式看法不一。 来自互联网

8 analyze   

vt.分析，解析 (=analyse)

参考例句：

• We should analyze the cause and effect of this event.我们应该分析这场事变的因果。
• The teacher tried to analyze the cause of our failure.老师设法分析我们失败的原因。

9 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

10 subjective   

a.主观(上)的，个人的

参考例句：

• The way they interpreted their past was highly subjective. 他们解释其过去的方式太主观。
• A literary critic should not be too subjective in his approach. 文学评论家的看法不应太主观。