VOA标准英语2014--耶鲁研究员预计埃博拉在蒙罗维亚就会导致九万人死亡

 

Yale Researchers Project 90,000 Ebola Deaths In Monrovia Alone 耶鲁研究员预计埃博拉在蒙罗维亚就会导致九万人死亡

The latest figures from the World Health Organization show that Ebola epidemic¹ has claimed nearly 5,000 lives, mostly in West Africa.  But that number could be 18 times greater in just one county in Liberia within two months, according to a new study.

Of the three countries in West Africa afflicted² by the Ebola virus, Liberia has been hit the worst. In Monrovia, the infection rate remains³ intense according to the World Health Organization.

The organization has made multiple appeals for aid from developed nations. Some aid has arrived. Some new treatment centers have been built, but a new study from Yale University shows that, even if all the aid already pledged came through, it would not be enough to control the epidemic in Liberia's Montserrado County, where a quarter of Liberia's people live and which includes Monrovia.

The research shows that, without greater efforts, more than 170,000 people will get Ebola and, of that number, more than 90,000 will die by mid-December in just this one area.

Dr. David Fisman, at the University of Toronto, reviewed the study which was published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

"The reason I thought this was such an important article is that it very elegantly makes the point that, as we wait for action on Ebola - because this is an epidemic that's growing very, very fast - that means we get not just more new cases, but exponentially more new cases with every passing week," said Fisman.

The predictions highlight the rapidly closing window of opportunity for controlling the outbreak according to the principal author of the Yale study.

Put another way, Dr. Fisman likens the epidemic's growth to making an investment.

"Imagine putting your money in an investment where your money is growing by 50 percent every two weeks. That would be wonderful. What we have with Ebola is an epidemic that is growing like that," he said.

The Lancet article says if measures to control the disease are scaled up by November, and another 4,800 new hospital beds are added, and detecting new cases are greatly speeded up, along with protective kits⁴ being provided for home care, almost 100,000 people will be spared from getting Ebola in Liberia's Montserrado County.

As for the entire Ebola-afflicted region of West Africa, Dr. Fisman's own projections⁶ show a total of 700,000 people will have been infected by the time the epidemic is under control, and, of those, 60 to 70 percent will die. A grim projection⁵ unless countries respond faster to control the virus.

1 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。

2 afflicted   

使受痛苦，折磨( afflict的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• About 40% of the country's population is afflicted with the disease. 全国40%左右的人口患有这种疾病。
• A terrible restlessness that was like to hunger afflicted Martin Eden. 一阵可怕的、跟饥饿差不多的不安情绪折磨着马丁·伊登。

3 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

4 kits   

衣物和装备( kit的名词复数 )； 成套用品； 配套元件

参考例句：

• Keep your kits closed and locked when not in use. 不用的话把你的装备都锁好放好。
• Gifts Articles, Toy and Games, Wooden Toys, Puzzles, Craft Kits. 采购产品礼品，玩具和游戏，木制的玩具，智力玩具，手艺装备。

5 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。

6 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。