市场注意力转移到9月美联储是否调整利率

Market Attention Shifts to US Fed Rates in September 市场注意力转移到9月美联储是否调整利率

WASHINGTON—

With worries over China’s slowing economy starting to recede¹ - financial markets are beginning to shift their collective attention to U.S. monetary² policy - specifically, interest rates.  The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark interest rates at record lows to boost growth during the recession.  Given the slow but steady improvement in the U.S. economy, analysts³ say the question is not whether interest rates will rise, but when.

Until the recent stock turmoil⁴ triggered by the slowdown in China, many expected a September rate hike.  But uncertainty⁵ over global economic growth muddied the waters.  Even job numbers showing U.S. unemployment at a seven-year low have not eased concerns, says Bankrate.com’s Mark Hamrick, who spoke⁶ to VOA via Skype.

“This August jobs report neither flashes a green light for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, nor does it flash a red light.  Meaning, that it is still in this caution zone,” Hamrick said.    

The caution reflects the Fed’s dual⁷ mandate⁸ - full employment and stable prices.  Hiking rates too soon could spark deflation and its ripple⁹ effects says Joseph Minarik, head of research at the Committee for Economic Development.

“If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates too quickly and too much and deters¹⁰ demand, particularly for major purchases in the economy, the result can be a cascading¹¹ reduction – starting with consumer demand – going on to employment,” Minarik said.

IMF urges delay

The International Monetary Fund urges the Fed to wait until at least next year. 

Spokesperson William Murray says the IMF believes “the Federal Reserve can afford to hold interest rates low until there are more tangible¹² signs of wage or price inflation."

But delay also carries risks.  Among them - few policy options when the U.S. economy hits another downturn says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist¹³ at financial consulting firm McGladrey.

“The Fed needs, before this business cycle ends, to get the Federal Funds rate somewhere at or above 200 basis points (2 percent), so when the inevitable¹⁴ recession comes, they can have firepower.”

But the Fed is keeping all options open.  That's a worry for a market that likes certainty, says Maria Fiorini Ramirez at consulting firm MFR.

“We’ve all been on pins and needles in terms of when they’re going to do it," she said.  "So either they should say that because of weaker growth and all the other reasons that they eloquently¹⁵ discuss, say that 'we’re not going to do anything' or just do it and say:  'this is it for now.' ”

Anyone seeking clarity will have to wait.  No announcement is expected until after members of the Federal Open Market Committee meet September 16 and 17.

1 recede   

vi.退(去)，渐渐远去；向后倾斜，缩进

参考例句：

• The colleges would recede in importance.大学的重要性会降低。
• He saw that the dirty water had begun to recede.他发现那污浊的水开始往下退了。

2 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

5 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

6 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

7 dual   

adj.双的；二重的，二元的

参考例句：

• The people's Republic of China does not recognize dual nationality for any Chinese national.中华人民共和国不承认中国公民具有双重国籍。
• He has dual role as composer and conductor.他兼作曲家及指挥的双重身分。

8 mandate   

n.托管地；命令，指示

参考例句：

• The President had a clear mandate to end the war.总统得到明确的授权结束那场战争。
• The General Election gave him no such mandate.大选并未授予他这种权力。

9 ripple   

n.涟波，涟漪，波纹，粗钢梳；vt.使...起涟漪，使起波纹； vi.呈波浪状，起伏前进

参考例句：

• The pebble made a ripple on the surface of the lake.石子在湖面上激起一个涟漪。
• The small ripple split upon the beach.小小的涟漪卷来，碎在沙滩上。

10 deters   

v.阻止，制止( deter的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• The filth here deters all but the invited guest. 这里污秽不堪，除非有事，外人是裹足不前的。 来自辞典例句
• Many people believe that capital punishment deters crime. 很多人相信极刑能阻止犯罪。 来自互联网

11 cascading   

流注( cascade的现在分词 )； 大量落下； 大量垂悬； 梯流

参考例句：

• First of all, cascading menus are to be avoided at all costs. 首先，无论如何都要避免使用级联菜单。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
• Her sounds began cascading gently. 他的声音开始缓缓地低落下来。

12 tangible   

adj.有形的，可触摸的，确凿的，实际的

参考例句：

• The policy has not yet brought any tangible benefits.这项政策还没有带来任何实质性的好处。
• There is no tangible proof.没有确凿的证据。

13 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

14 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

15 eloquently   

adv. 雄辩地(有口才地, 富于表情地)

参考例句：

• I was toasted by him most eloquently at the dinner. 进餐时他口若悬河地向我祝酒。
• The poet eloquently expresses the sense of lost innocence. 诗人动人地表达了失去天真的感觉。