2014年经济学人 如何赢得99.6%的选票 许多国会议员没有竞争对手

Lexington

How to win 99.6% of the vote

Too many members of Congress are running unopposed

DAYS before he seeks re-election to Congress for an eighth time, Representative Mike Capuano of Massachusetts has yet to order a single bumper¹ sticker or “I Like Mike” lawn sign. That is not as risky² as it might sound. In his district, a Democratic bastion that covers the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, chunks³ of Harvard University and swathes of blue-collar Boston, Mr Capuano faces no Republican opponent—or opposition⁴ of any kind. His is the only name that will appear on the ballot⁵ on November 4th.

This is no novelty for Mr Capuano. After he first won the seat in 1998, he never faced a Republican opponent again, often cruising to victory with such Cuban-style scores as 99.6% of the vote. Pondering past races, he struggles to recall details of the few independents who have challenged him. “I had a Communist, right?” he asks an aide. “A Socialist⁶? Six years ago? Four?”

Few others in Congress have been as safe for as long. But Mr Capuano has more company than before. Ever-fewer races for the House of Representatives are closely fought, leaving four-fifths of that body's 435 members with little to fear on polling day. Their doomed⁷ challengers—formerly stirred to action by a mix of idealism, ambition, vanity and (at times) self-delusion—seem at last to be noticing the odds⁸ against them. Add on the soaring costs of any election, and a growing number are quitting the field.

In 2014 Republicans have put up no challenger in 37 House races, while Democrats⁹ are ceding¹⁰ 32 districts without a fight, according to David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. A further eight House districts will see no contest between the main parties, thanks to a “top two” primary system used in Washington state and California, in which ordinary voters (rather than just party members) can pick the two candidates who compete for each seat in the general election—a move sold as a cure-all for partisan¹¹ extremism, but which can turn safe districts into blue-on-blue and red-on-red fights. That total of 77 single-party House races is high by recent standards and marks a big jump since 2012, when there were 45 of them. Stephen Colbert, a comedian¹², once persuaded aFlorida congressman¹³ running unopposed to tell the camera that he liked cocaine¹⁴ and prostitutes, by arguing that it didn't matter what he said because he couldn't possibly lose.

One-party districts cannot be good for democracy. In Massachusetts this year Republicans are running in only three of nine House races and are contesting half the seats in the state legislature. Mr Capuano, a plain-speaking former mayor, says that having a Republican opponent would have “virtually no impact” on him. In such a safe seat, danger comes from his own side. His elections are fought months before polling day, he explains. Any Democratic challengers have a narrow window to show themselves by making exploratory calls, collecting signatures, turning up to public events, and generally testing whether the congressman is vulnerable. Mr Capuano aims to be “very conscientious” about constituency service at all times, but between January and April in election years, “I step on the gas.” All signs of possible weakness are watched for. Whenever he runs unopposed in his Democratic primary he counts the blank votes cast, precinct by precinct, knowing that rivals are doing the same.

In today's Democratic Party, challengers seldom invoke¹⁵ ideology¹⁶, Mr Capuano notes, contrasting his lot with that of Republican incumbents¹⁸ who must fear organised attacks from the right. In politics, Republicans are like dogs, working as a pack, he suggests: “Democrats are the cats.” The congressman, 62, has something of the tom-cat about him: it is possible to imagine him ruling a maze¹⁹ of alleys²⁰, with many scars and a torn ear. Asked about fund-raising (he has 628,000 cash on hand, according to his most recent electoral filing), he growls²¹: “I do my share.” Almost all will be given to other Democrats, he explains, though he will keep enough money “to dissuade²² potential opponents”.

An old alley-cat might call Curt²³ Myers an idealistic pup. A 21-year old Republican college student from Brookline, just outside Mr Capuano's fief, he has chosen to mount a hopeless bid for the Massachusetts state House, running in his home district of 15th Norfolk, a hotbed of liberalism which last saw a Republican candidate before he was born. He is realistic about his chances, but wants to give his home town “the debate it deserves”. He has beaten his fund-raising target of 25,000—enough to build a website and buy some yard signs. He is heartened that the Democratic incumbent¹⁷ has agreed to a public debate and that even “far-left” folk say they are glad that he is running—though they will not vote for him. Less hearteningly, he has been spat²⁴ on three times for being a Republican. Alas²⁵ for fans of democratic accountability, Mr Myers does not think he would run for Congress against similarly bleak²⁶ odds.

Showing up is 80% of life

In part, this is a story about the professionalisation of politics. Even unwinnable House races are now monitored by cold-eyed number-crunchers. Both parties fear zealous²⁷ amateurs who may pollute their national brand. They also fret²⁸ about the effect that one race may have on another. For example, in Massachusetts Republicans have a good chance of winning the governorship so long as turnout is not too high (because conservatives are more likely to vote). So a strong Republican challenge in a close House race might be counter-productive, spurring Democrats to pour in resources, raising turnout and kneecapping the chances of the Republican in the more important race.

Why stop at 77 seats with no inter-party contest, then? “It's going to get worse before it gets better,” predicts a Republican bigwig. Such political vacuums surely cannot last indefinitely: voters would not tolerate a House with hundreds of uncontested seats, touch wood. Until then, the creaking of a two-party system in distress²⁹ will grow louder.

1 bumper   

n.(汽车上的)保险杠；adj.特大的，丰盛的

参考例句：

• The painting represents the scene of a bumper harvest.这幅画描绘了丰收的景象。
• This year we have a bumper harvest in grain.今年我们谷物丰收。

2 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

3 chunks   

厚厚的一块( chunk的名词复数 )； （某物）相当大的数量或部分

参考例句：

• a tin of pineapple chunks 一罐菠萝块
• Those chunks of meat are rather large—could you chop them up a bIt'smaller? 这些肉块相当大，还能再切小一点吗？

4 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

5 ballot   

n.（不记名）投票，投票总数，投票权；vi.投票

参考例句：

• The members have demanded a ballot.会员们要求投票表决。
• The union said they will ballot members on whether to strike.工会称他们将要求会员投票表决是否罢工。

6 socialist   

n.社会主义者；adj.社会主义的

参考例句：

• China is a socialist country,and a developing country as well.中国是一个社会主义国家，也是一个发展中国家。
• His father was an ardent socialist.他父亲是一个热情的社会主义者。

7 doomed   

命定的

参考例句：

• The court doomed the accused to a long term of imprisonment. 法庭判处被告长期监禁。
• A country ruled by an iron hand is doomed to suffer. 被铁腕人物统治的国家定会遭受不幸的。

8 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

9 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 ceding   

v.让给，割让，放弃( cede的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He was ceding line but more slowly all the time. 他正在放出钓索，然而越来越慢了。 来自英汉文学 - 老人与海
• Settlement would require ceding some Egyptian territory. 解决办法将要求埃及让出一些领土。 来自辞典例句

11 partisan   

adj.党派性的；游击队的；n.游击队员；党徒

参考例句：

• In their anger they forget all the partisan quarrels.愤怒之中，他们忘掉一切党派之争。
• The numerous newly created partisan detachments began working slowly towards that region.许多新建的游击队都开始慢慢地向那里移动。

12 comedian   

n.喜剧演员；滑稽演员

参考例句：

• The comedian tickled the crowd with his jokes.喜剧演员的笑话把人们逗乐了。
• The comedian enjoyed great popularity during the 30's.那位喜剧演员在三十年代非常走红。

13 Congressman   

n.（美）国会议员

参考例句：

• He related several anecdotes about his first years as a congressman.他讲述自己初任议员那几年的几则轶事。
• The congressman is meditating a reply to his critics.这位国会议员正在考虑给他的批评者一个答复。

14 cocaine   

n.可卡因，古柯碱（用作局部麻醉剂）

参考例句：

• That young man is a cocaine addict.那个年轻人吸食可卡因成瘾。
• Don't have cocaine abusively.不可滥服古柯碱。

15 invoke   

v.求助于(神、法律)；恳求，乞求

参考例句：

• Let us invoke the blessings of peace.让我们祈求和平之福。
• I hope I'll never have to invoke this clause and lodge a claim with you.我希望我永远不会使用这个条款向你们索赔。

16 ideology   

n.意识形态，(政治或社会的)思想意识

参考例句：

• The ideology has great influence in the world.这种思想体系在世界上有很大的影响。
• The ideal is to strike a medium between ideology and inspiration.我的理想是在意识思想和灵感鼓动之间找到一个折衷。

17 incumbent   

adj.成为责任的，有义务的；现任的，在职的

参考例句：

• He defeated the incumbent governor by a large plurality.他以压倒多数票击败了现任州长。
• It is incumbent upon you to warn them.你有责任警告他们。

18 incumbents   

教区牧师( incumbent的名词复数 )； 教会中的任职者

参考例句：

• In general, incumbents have a 94 percent chance of being reelected. 通常现任官员有94%的几率会再次当选。
• This arangement yields a wonderful gain to incumbents. 这种安排为在职人员提供了意外的得益。

19 maze   

n.迷宫，八阵图，混乱，迷惑

参考例句：

• He found his way through the complex maze of corridors.他穿过了迷宮一样的走廊。
• She was lost in the maze for several hours.一连几小时，她的头脑处于一片糊涂状态。

20 alleys   

胡同，小巷( alley的名词复数 )； 小径

参考例句：

• I followed him through a maze of narrow alleys. 我紧随他穿过一条条迂迴曲折的窄巷。
• The children lead me through the maze of alleys to the edge of the city. 孩子们领我穿过迷宫一般的街巷，来到城边。

21 growls   

v.（动物）发狺狺声， （雷）作隆隆声( growl的第三人称单数 )；低声咆哮着说

参考例句：

• The dog growls at me. 狗向我狂吠。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The loudest growls have echoed around emerging markets and commodities. 熊嚎之声响彻新兴的市场与商品。 来自互联网

22 dissuade   

v.劝阻，阻止

参考例句：

• You'd better dissuade him from doing that.你最好劝阻他别那样干。
• I tried to dissuade her from investing her money in stocks and shares.我曾设法劝她不要投资于股票交易。

23 curt   

adj.简短的，草率的

参考例句：

• He gave me an extremely curt answer.他对我作了极为草率的答复。
• He rapped out a series of curt commands.他大声发出了一连串简短的命令。

24 spat   

n.口角，掌击；v.发出呼噜呼噜声

参考例句：

• Her parents always have spats.她的父母经常有些小的口角。
• There is only a spat between the brother and sister.那只是兄妹间的小吵小闹。

25 alas   

int.唉(表示悲伤、忧愁、恐惧等)

参考例句：

• Alas!The window is broken!哎呀！窗子破了！
• Alas,the truth is less romantic.然而，真理很少带有浪漫色彩。

26 bleak   

adj.(天气)阴冷的；凄凉的；暗淡的

参考例句：

• They showed me into a bleak waiting room.他们引我来到一间阴冷的会客室。
• The company's prospects look pretty bleak.这家公司的前景异常暗淡。

27 zealous   

adj.狂热的，热心的

参考例句：

• She made zealous efforts to clean up the classroom.她非常热心地努力清扫教室。
• She is a zealous supporter of our cause.她是我们事业的热心支持者。

28 fret   

v.(使)烦恼；(使)焦急；(使)腐蚀，(使)磨损

参考例句：

• Don't fret.We'll get there on time.别着急，我们能准时到那里。
• She'll fret herself to death one of these days.她总有一天会愁死的.

29 distress   

n.苦恼，痛苦，不舒适；不幸；vt.使悲痛

参考例句：

• Nothing could alleviate his distress.什么都不能减轻他的痛苦。
• Please don't distress yourself.请你不要忧愁了。