2019年经济学人 全球化放缓(1)

 

Slowbalisation

全球化速度减缓

A new pattern of world commerce is becoming clearer—as are its costs

一种新的世界商业模式正变得越来越清晰——其成本也是如此

When America took a protectionist turn two years ago, it provoked dark warnings about the miseries¹ of the 1930s. Today those ominous² predictions look misplaced. Yes, China is slowing. And, yes, Western firms exposed to China, such as Apple, have been clobbered³. But in 2018 global growth was decent, unemployment fell and profits rose. In November President Donald Trump⁴ signed a trade pact⁵ with Mexico and Canada. If talks over the next month lead to a deal with Xi Jinping, relieved markets will conclude that the trade war is about political theatre and squeezing a few concessions⁶ from China, not detonating global commerce.

两年前，美国转向贸易保护主义引发20世纪30年代悲剧的黑暗警告。如今这些不祥的预言似乎放错了地方。没错，中国正在放缓。且与中国联系密切的西方公司，如苹果公司，确实遭到痛击。但2018年全球增速尚可，失业率下降，利润上升。11月，唐纳德·特朗普总统同墨西哥和加拿大签署了一份贸易协定。如果下个月的谈判能和习近平主席达成协议，如释重负的市场将得出这样的结论:贸易战是一场政治戏剧，是为了迫使中国做出一些让步，而不是引爆全球商业。

Such complacency is mistaken. Today’s trade tensions are compounding a shift that has been under way since the financial crisis in 2008-09. As we explain, cross-border investment, trade, bank loans and supply chains have all been shrinking or stagnating⁷ relative to world GDP. Globalisation has given way to a new era of sluggishness⁸. Adapting a term coined by a Dutch writer, we call it “slowbalisation”.

这种自满是错误的。如今的贸易紧张加剧了自2008-09年金融危机以来一直在发生的一种转变。正如我们所解释的，相对于世界GDP，跨境投资、贸易、银行贷款和供应链都在萎缩或停滞。全球化俨然已经让位给一个萧条的新时代。借用一位荷兰作家创造的术语，我们称之为“全球化减缓”。

The golden age of globalisation, in 1990-2010, was something to behold⁹. Commerce soared as the cost of shifting goods in ships and planes fell, phone calls got cheaper, tariffs¹⁰ were cut and the financial system liberalised. International activity went gangbusters, as firms set up around the world, investors¹¹ roamed and consumers shopped in supermarkets with enough choice to impress Phileas Fogg.

全球化1990年至2010年的黄金时代值得期待。随着船舶和飞机运输成本的下降、通话成本的降低、关税的降低以及金融体系的自由化，商业活动大幅增长。国际活动大获成功，随着公司在世界各地纷纷成立，投资者遍布各地，在超市购物的消费者选择多种多样，这些给斐利亚·福克留下了深刻的印象。

1 miseries   

n.痛苦( misery的名词复数 )；痛苦的事；穷困；常发牢骚的人

参考例句：

• They forgot all their fears and all their miseries in an instant. 他们马上忘记了一切恐惧和痛苦。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• I'm suffering the miseries of unemployment. 我正为失业而痛苦。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 ominous   

adj.不祥的，不吉的，预兆的，预示的

参考例句：

• Those black clouds look ominous for our picnic.那些乌云对我们的野餐来说是个不祥之兆。
• There was an ominous silence at the other end of the phone.电话那头出现了不祥的沉默。

3 clobbered   

v.狠揍， （不停）猛打( clobber的过去式和过去分词 )；彻底击败

参考例句：

• The paper got clobbered with libel damages of half a million pounds. 这家报纸被罚以五十万英镑的诽谤损害赔偿金。
• The robbers clobbered the shopkeeper to make him open the safe. 强盗们殴打店主迫使他打开保险箱。 来自辞典例句

4 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

5 pact   

n.合同，条约，公约，协定

参考例句：

• The two opposition parties made an electoral pact.那两个反对党订了一个有关选举的协定。
• The trade pact between those two countries came to an end.那两国的通商协定宣告结束。

6 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

7 stagnating   

v.停滞，不流动，不发展( stagnate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• I feel I'm stagnating in this job. 我觉得，干这份工作我没有长进。
• ITT was stagnating when Geneen became the chief executive officer in 1959. 1959年吉宁出任行政总负责人时，国际电话电报公司正处于不景气时期。 来自辞典例句

8 sluggishness   

不振，萧条，呆滞；惰性；滞性；惯性

参考例句：

• Such estimate of viscosities do give us some concept of the sluggishness of debris flows. 这种对泥石流粘度的估计确实给我们提供了一些泥石流惰性方面的概念。 来自辞典例句
• The general appearance of sluggishness alarmed his friends. 那种呆滞的样子吓坏了他的朋友们。 来自互联网

9 behold   

v.看，注视，看到

参考例句：

• The industry of these little ants is wonderful to behold.这些小蚂蚁辛勤劳动的样子看上去真令人惊叹。
• The sunrise at the seaside was quite a sight to behold.海滨日出真是个奇景。

10 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

11 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会