2019年经济学人 美国经济:空欢喜一场(1)

 

Investors¹ started the year brooding about the risk of an American recession.

年初，投资者就对美国经济衰退的风险忧心忡忡。

Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest lender, says clients around the globe were worried.

德国最大银行德意志银行的Torsten Slok表示全球客户都在担忧。

Financial indicators² were flashing red, the stockmarket was weak and yields on low-grade corporate³ debt had jumped.

金融指标亮红灯，股市疲软并且低评级公司债券的收益率大幅上升。

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates in December had been unsurprising, but unwelcome.

12月，美联储加息的决定虽不令人吃惊，但也不受欢迎。

At the end of the year a model from economists⁴ at JPMorgan Chase had put the chances of a recession within 12 months,

年底，摩根大通公司经济学家的一个模型将经济衰退的可能性设定在了12个月内，

based on the S&P 500 index and corporate-credit spreads, at 65%. But the mood has now improved.

这一模型是基于标准普尔500指数和公司信贷差计算，这一比例为65%。但这种情绪现在已经改善。

By April 29th JPMorgan's model was putting the chances of a recession at just 15%.

至4月29日，摩根大通的模型认为衰退可能性仅为15%。

"It's eye-popping how quickly the narrative⁵ has changed," says Mr Slok.

Slok先生称：“故事变化之快令人瞠目结舌。”

One reason for the improvement in sentiment is the Fed's evolving monetary-policy stance.

投资者信心改善的原因之一就是美联储逐步演化的货币政策立场

In January it turned more doveish, abandoning its plans to raise rates in 2019.

今年1月，美联储变得更加温和，它放弃了2019年加息的计划。

"We don't see any evidence at all of overheating," said Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, on May 1st

5月1日，美联储主席杰罗米·鲍威尔表示，“我们没有看到任何过热的迹象，”

after announcing that the Fed would maintain its patient stance. He also repeated his view that the data do not warrant higher rates.

此前他刚宣布美联储将保持耐心。他还重复了自己的观点—数据不能保证更高的利率。

Investors have been delighted by the Fed's pause. But the timing⁶ and extent of their change of mood suggests that is not the full story.

投资者对美联储的暂停感到高兴。但是他们情绪改善的时机和程度表明这不是故事的全部内容。

One possibility is that their previous gloom may have been overblown.

一种可能性是他们之前的悲观情绪被夸大了。

"The market collapse⁷ in December was driven by the calendar," says Catherine Mann of Citigroup, a bank, as investors repositioned for tax purposes.

“12月的市场不景气是由日历所驱使的，” 花旗集团的凯瑟琳·曼说到，因为投资者为了税收的目的而重新定位。

The "inverted⁸ yield curve"—that is, yields on long-term bonds below those on short-term ones,

“反向收益率曲线”—即长期债券的收益率低于短期债券，

historically a sign that a recession is on the way— has been ringing alarm bells recently.

从历史上看，这是衰退即将来临的征兆—近期敲响了警钟。

But Ms Mann doubts its continued predictive power after a long period in which central-bank intervention⁹ depressed¹⁰ interest rates.

但曼女士怀疑在中央银行进行长时间的干预后，其持续的预测能力压制住了利率。

 

1 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

2 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

3 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

6 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

7 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

8 inverted   

adj.反向的，倒转的v.使倒置，使反转( invert的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Only direct speech should go inside inverted commas. 只有直接引语应放在引号内。
• Inverted flight is an acrobatic manoeuvre of the plane. 倒飞是飞机的一种特技动作。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

10 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。