2019年经济学人 印度经济增长的骗局(2)

 

If India's statistics are overstated, who or what is to blame?

如果印度的统计数据被夸大，那么哪些人或物应受到责怪呢？

Political meddling¹ is an inadequate² answer, although this government, under Narendra Modi, has done plenty to arouse suspicion.

仅责怪政治干预是不够的，虽然在纳伦德拉·莫迪领导下的政府已经做了很多引起怀疑的事情。

In November statisticians revised down growth figures from last decade, taking the shine off the previous government's record.

在11月，统计学家对过去十年的增长数据进行了下调，使上届政府的政绩黯然失色。

In January they revised up growth in 2016-18, the two fiscal³ years most affected⁴ by Mr Modi's daft

在1月，他们上调了2016-18年的经济增长，这两个财年受到了莫迪愚蠢行为

and disruptive decision to remove highdenomination bank notes from circulation. Both exercises raised eyebrows⁵.

以及取消流通高面额纸币的破坏性决定的极大影响。两项行动均引人侧目。

But Mr Subramanian sidesteps these two recent controversies⁶, excluding the latest revisions from his analysis.

但萨勃拉曼尼亚先生回避了这两个近期的争议问题，将最新的修订排除了他的报告。

Instead he concentrates his fire on a more fundamental technical change:

相反，他把精力集中在一个更根本的技术变革上：

a new method of calculating GDP, from 2011-12 onwards, that was adopted in early 2015.

2015年初采用了一种计算GDP的新方法，从2011年至2012年开始。

Much of the preparation for this switch dated back to the previous government.

这一转变的大部分准备工作可以追溯到上届政府。

And one of the new method's strangest results was an upward revision of growth in the tumultuous year before Mr Modi took office,

而新方法最奇怪的结果之一是对莫迪上任前动荡年份的经济增长进行了上调，

when the economy was reeling from high inflation and capital outflows. That contradicts the charge of political interference.

当时经济正受到高通胀和资本外流的冲击。这与政治干预的指控相矛盾。

Why would Mr Modi's government fiddle⁷ the figures to flatter its hated predecessor⁸?

莫迪政府为何要篡改数据，以讨好其令人憎恨的前任呢？

The new method may nonetheless suffer from other shortcomings.

尽管如此，新方法可能还存在其他缺点。

It may, for example, have failed to cope with the drop in oil prices in 2014.

例如，它可能无法应对2014年的油价下跌。

To illustrate⁹: if an Indian company imports 10,000 rupees-worth of crude oil and adds 100 rupees of value to it,

举例来说：如果一家印度公司进口价值一万卢比的原油并增加100卢比的价值，

it might sell the refined product for 10,100 rupees.

它可能会以10100卢比的价格出售这种精制产品。

If the oil price subsequently halves, the company might try selling the same product for 5,110 rupees, boosting its margin¹⁰.

如果油价随后下跌一半，该公司可能会试着以5110卢比的价格出售同样的产品，以提高利润率。

An unwary statistician might conclude that Indian prices have dropped dramatically.

一个不太谨慎的统计学家可能会得出结论，印度的物价已大幅下跌。

But the Indian part of the total (the only bit that matters for GDP) has increased in price (from 100 to 110 rupees).

但是其中印度的那一部分（GDP中唯一重要的部分）价格上涨了（从100卢比涨到了110卢比）。

The confused statistician may then treat an increase in rupee profits as evidence of real growth, not merely higher prices.

然后困惑的统计学家可能会将卢比利润的增长视为实际增长的证据，而不仅仅是价格上涨。

Such problems are less likely in more developed G20 countries, which keep better track of the prices of inputs¹¹.

在更发达的20国集团（G20），此类问题不太可能发生，因为这些国家对投入价格的跟踪能力更强。

1 meddling   

v.干涉，干预（他人事务）( meddle的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He denounced all "meddling" attempts to promote a negotiation. 他斥责了一切“干预”促成谈判的企图。 来自辞典例句
• They liked this field because it was never visited by meddling strangers. 她们喜欢这块田野，因为好事的陌生人从来不到那里去。 来自辞典例句

2 inadequate   

adj.(for,to)不充足的，不适当的

参考例句：

• The supply is inadequate to meet the demand.供不应求。
• She was inadequate to the demands that were made on her.她还无力满足对她提出的各项要求。

3 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

4 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

5 eyebrows   

眉毛( eyebrow的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Eyebrows stop sweat from coming down into the eyes. 眉毛挡住汗水使其不能流进眼睛。
• His eyebrows project noticeably. 他的眉毛特别突出。

6 controversies   

争论

参考例句：

• We offer no comment on these controversies here. 对于这些争议，我们在这里不作任何评论。 来自英汉非文学 - 历史
• The controversies surrounding population growth are unlikely to subside soon. 围绕着人口增长问题的争论看来不会很快平息。 来自辞典例句

7 fiddle   

n.小提琴；vi.拉提琴；不停拨弄，乱动

参考例句：

• She plays the fiddle well.她小提琴拉得好。
• Don't fiddle with the typewriter.不要摆弄那架打字机了。

8 predecessor   

n.前辈，前任

参考例句：

• It will share the fate of its predecessor.它将遭受与前者同样的命运。
• The new ambassador is more mature than his predecessor.新大使比他的前任更成熟一些。

9 illustrate   

v.举例说明，阐明；图解，加插图

参考例句：

• The company's bank statements illustrate its success.这家公司的银行报表说明了它的成功。
• This diagram will illustrate what I mean.这个图表可说明我的意思。

10 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

11 inputs   

n.输入( input的名词复数 )；投入；输入端；输入的数据v.把…输入电脑( input的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Uncheck the inputs checked for optimization in the previous stage. 不测试那些已经测试过的优化了的以前步骤的inputs.（变量参数）。 来自互联网
• Just in case, save in a file the inputs obtained at the previous stage. 以防万一，保存以前步骤获得的inputs（变量参数值）到一个文件中去。 来自互联网