2019年经济学人 欧洲中央银行的探索(2)

 

Some economists¹ therefore expect attempts to mitigate² the negative impact of rate cuts by excusing banks from negative rates on some excess reserves.

因此一些经济学家预计，央行将试图通过免除银行对部分超额准备金的负利率，来减轻降息的负面影响。

Even then rates may be not far off the lower bound.

即使到那时，利率可能也离下限不远了。

Analysts³ at BNP Paribas, a bank, think they can fall by at most 0.4 percentage points before that moment comes.

法国巴黎银行的分析师认为，在那一刻到来之前，它们最多可以下跌0.4个百分点。

That limited space is why some economists also expect the bank to restart QE later in the year.

这一有限的空间也是一些经济学家预计欧洲央行将在今年年末重启量化宽松的原因。

Daniele Antonucci of Morgan Stanley, a Wall Street firm,

来自华尔街摩根士丹利公司的Daniele Antonucci

expects the bank to announce monthly purchases of government and corporate⁴ debt of 45bn euro.

预计央行将宣布每月购买450亿欧元的政府和企业债券。

But the bank's self-imposed limit on the share of a country's sovereign debt it can own, of 33%,

但央行自行对一个国家的国债份额设限33%

means this pace probably cannot be sustained beyond a year.

这意味着这种速度可能维持不了一年以上。

This ceiling would need to be lifted if any expansion of QE is to seem credible⁵ to investors⁷, reckons Spyros Andreopoulos of BNP Paribas.

法国巴黎银行的Spyros Andreopoulos认为，要想让投资者信任QE扩张，就需要提高上限。

Though QE's legality is questioned in Germany, in December the European Court of Justice ruled that the ECB was acting⁸ legally,

虽然QE的合法性在德国受到质疑，但今年212月，欧洲法院裁定ECB的行为合法，

appearing to give it room to raise its limit up to 50%.

这似乎给了它将上限提高到到50%的空间。

(The case returns to German courts at the end of the month, but judges are expected to bow to the ECJ.)

（该案在月末发回德国法庭，但法官可能会向欧洲法庭屈服。）

In any case the bank would need to rethink another self-imposed rule, says Mr Andreopoulos:

Andreopoulos表示，无论如何，欧洲央行都需要重新考虑另一条自我强加的规则：

that it avoid holding shares of individual securities large enough that it can sway the outcome of investor⁶ votes on any future debt restructuring.

避免持有足以影响投资者对未来任何债务重组投票结果的个别证券的股份。

Even with all this, the ECB's ability to cope alone with a serious downturn would be limited.

即便如此，ECB独自应对严重经济衰退的能力也将是有限的。

Even as Mr Draghi assured markets he had the firepower,

即使德拉吉向市场保证他有足够的火力，

he warned that without fiscal⁹ support monetary¹⁰ easing risked being slow to boost the economy, with possible unwanted side-effects.

他警告称，没有财政支持，宽松的货币政策可能会有经济增长缓慢的风险，还可能有不必要的副作用。

Negative borrowing costs across many member states make the case for dusting off fiscal tools even more obvious.

许多成员国的负借贷成本使得重启财政工具的理由更加明显。

But Europe's governments guard their ammunition¹¹ more jealously than central bankers do.

但欧洲政府比央行总裁更加小心翼翼地守护着他们的弹药。

1 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 mitigate   

vt.（使）减轻，（使）缓和

参考例句：

• The government is trying to mitigate the effects of inflation.政府正试图缓和通货膨胀的影响。
• Governments should endeavour to mitigate distress.政府应努力缓解贫困问题。

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

5 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

6 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

7 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

8 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

9 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

10 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

11 ammunition   

n.军火，弹药

参考例句：

• A few of the jeeps had run out of ammunition.几辆吉普车上的弹药已经用光了。
• They have expended all their ammunition.他们把弹药用光。