2021年经济学人 拜登要重新领导世界,中美关系非同小可(1)

United States

美国版块

Lexington

莱克星顿专栏

Back to the future

回到未来

Joe Biden sets out to restore American leadership with an old team in a new world

乔·拜登着手利用旧的团队恢复美国在新世界的领导地位

Not since George H. W. Bush in 1989 has America inaugurated a president so well-known in world affairs as Joe Biden. A former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, then vice-president for eight years, he has had a role in, or a say on, most foreign policy since the cold war. His chosen foreign-policy team, dominated by other veterans of Barack Obama’s administration such as John Kerry and Tony Blinken—a former secretary of state and a prospective² one who has briefed Mr Biden for decades—is almost as well-known. Yet for all these familiar elements Mr Biden’s foreign policy is cloaked in uncertainty³.

自1989年乔治·布什就任总统以来，美国就再未出现过像乔·拜登那样在世界事务中享有盛名的总统。拜登曾任参议院外交关系委员会主席，随后担任副总统8年，他在冷战之后的大多数外交政策中都发挥了作用，或者说拥有发言权。他选择的外交政策团队由奥巴马政府的诸多资深人士主导，比如几乎是众所周知的曾经的国务卿约翰·克里以及曾向拜登做了数十年简报的副国务卿托尼·布林肯。然而，尽管有这么多熟悉的元素，拜登的外交政策仍笼罩在不确定性之中。

This reflects the altered circumstances in which he has returned to the White House. Having launched his campaign as a continuity candidate, drawn⁴ from retirement⁵ to defend Mr Obama’s legacy⁶, he faces huge problems that will make his administration very different from the “third Obama term” he initially⁷ seemed to promise. One is the bungled⁸ covid-19 epidemic⁹, which has produced misery¹⁰ at home and more proof of America’s abandonment of global leadership. In the depth of the Iraq war many Europeans thought better of the superpower than they do now. The crisis will also hamper¹¹ Mr Biden’s ability to repair the damage, by ensuring he is largely consumed by fighting fires at home.

这反映出拜登回到白宫后的情况发生了变化。作为一名延续性候选人，拜登从离任后开始竞选，去守护奥巴马的遗产，他面临着的巨大的问题将使他的政府与他最初似乎承诺的“第三届奥巴马任期”截然不同。问题之一在于治理失败的新冠疫情，它不仅导致美国水深火热，还进一步证明美国放弃了全球领导地位。许多当时处于伊拉克战争深渊中的欧洲人对美国这个超级大国的看法比现在要好。新冠危机还将阻碍拜登修复创伤的能力，因为他要确保自己大部分时间都在国内“灭火”。

The second problem, what to do about China, is more daunting¹². The president and his team all subscribe¹³ to the new consensus¹⁴ view that it is a formidable, long-term competitor. Contrary to Republican fears, there is no prospect¹ of them reverting¹⁵ to the Obama administration’s relatively¹⁶ benign¹⁷ vision of coexistence with China. Even those who are in retrospect¹⁸ least critical of that approach, such as Mr Blinken, a suave¹⁹ and understated diplomat²⁰, now sound hawkish²¹ by 2016 standards. And Mr Biden has appointed his most China-sceptical advisers²³ to the top Asia jobs at the National Security Council and Pentagon. Foremost among this second group—categorised as “the 2021 Democrats” in an astute²⁴ analysis of Mr Biden’s team by Thomas Wright of the Brookings Institution—is Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser²². Yet quite how these Democratic hawks²⁵ will push back at China, how far Mr Biden will back them, and to what effect, remain to be seen.

第二个更令人望而生畏的问题是，该怎么对待中国。拜登总统和他的团队都达成了新的共识，即中国是一个强大的、长期的竞争对手。与共和党的担忧相反，拜登政府不可能重启奥巴马政府相对温和的对华共存愿景。回首过去，即便是那些最少批判这种对华态度的人，比如温文尔雅的外交官布林肯，按照2016年的标准来看，他们现在的对华说法也很鹰派。拜登还任命了对中国最持怀疑态度的顾问来担任处理亚洲事务的国家安全委员会和五角大楼的高层职位。布鲁金斯学会的托马斯?赖特通过对拜登团队的敏锐分析，将其团队归类为“2021级民主党人”，其中助手团队中最重要的是国家安全顾问杰克?沙利文。然而，这些民主党鹰派将如何对抗中国，拜登将在多大程度上支持他们，以及效果如何，仍有待观察。

1 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

2 prospective   

adj.预期的，未来的，前瞻性的

参考例句：

• The story should act as a warning to other prospective buyers.这篇报道应该对其他潜在的购买者起到警示作用。
• They have all these great activities for prospective freshmen.这会举办各种各样的活动来招待未来的新人。

3 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

4 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

5 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。

6 legacy   

n.遗产，遗赠；先人(或过去)留下的东西

参考例句：

• They are the most precious cultural legacy our forefathers left.它们是我们祖先留下来的最宝贵的文化遗产。
• He thinks the legacy is a gift from the Gods.他认为这笔遗产是天赐之物。

7 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

8 bungled   

v.搞糟，完不成( bungle的过去式和过去分词 )；笨手笨脚地做；失败；完不成

参考例句：

• They bungled the job. 他们把活儿搞糟了。
• John bungled the job. 约翰把事情搞糟了。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

9 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。

10 misery   

n.痛苦，苦恼，苦难；悲惨的境遇，贫苦

参考例句：

• Business depression usually causes misery among the working class.商业不景气常使工薪阶层受苦。
• He has rescued me from the mire of misery.他把我从苦海里救了出来。

11 hamper   

vt.妨碍，束缚，限制；n.(有盖的)大篮子

参考例句：

• There are some apples in a picnic hamper.在野餐用的大篮子里有许多苹果。
• The emergence of such problems seriously hamper the development of enterprises.这些问题的出现严重阻碍了企业的发展。

12 daunting   

adj.使人畏缩的

参考例句：

• They were faced with the daunting task of restoring the house.他们面临着修复房子的艰巨任务。
• Starting a new job can be a daunting prospect.开始一项新工作有时会让人望而却步。

13 subscribe   

vi.(to)订阅，订购；同意；vt.捐助，赞助

参考例句：

• I heartily subscribe to that sentiment.我十分赞同那个观点。
• The magazine is trying to get more readers to subscribe.该杂志正大力发展新订户。

14 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

15 reverting   

恢复( revert的现在分词 )； 重提； 回到…上； 归还

参考例句：

• The boss came back from holiday all relaxed and smiling, but now he's reverting to type. 老板刚度假回来时十分随和，满面笑容，现在又恢复原样了。
• The conversation kept reverting to the subject of money. 谈话的内容总是离不开钱的事。

16 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

17 benign   

adj.善良的，慈祥的；良性的，无危险的

参考例句：

• The benign weather brought North America a bumper crop.温和的气候给北美带来大丰收。
• Martha is a benign old lady.玛莎是个仁慈的老妇人。

18 retrospect   

n.回顾，追溯；v.回顾，回想，追溯

参考例句：

• One's school life seems happier in retrospect than in reality.学校生活回忆起来显得比实际上要快乐。
• In retrospect,it's easy to see why we were wrong.回顾过去就很容易明白我们的错处了。

19 suave   

adj.温和的；柔和的；文雅的

参考例句：

• He is a suave,cool and cultured man.他是个世故、冷静、有教养的人。
• I had difficulty answering his suave questions.我难以回答他的一些彬彬有礼的提问。

20 diplomat   

n.外交官，外交家；能交际的人，圆滑的人

参考例句：

• The diplomat threw in a joke, and the tension was instantly relieved.那位外交官插进一个笑话，紧张的气氛顿时缓和下来。
• He served as a diplomat in Russia before the war.战前他在俄罗斯当外交官。

21 hawkish   

adj. 鹰派的, 强硬派的

参考例句：

• My staff's advice that first day was amazingly hawkish. 在第一天，我的僚属们的意见是令人吃惊的鹰派意见。
• Antiwar groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish Cabinet. 反战团体担心巴拉克·奥巴马可以创建强硬派内阁。

22 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

23 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

24 astute   

adj.机敏的，精明的

参考例句：

• A good leader must be an astute judge of ability.一个优秀的领导人必须善于识别人的能力。
• The criminal was very astute and well matched the detective in intelligence.这个罪犯非常狡猾，足以对付侦探的机智。

25 hawks   

鹰( hawk的名词复数 )； 鹰派人物，主战派人物

参考例句：

• Two hawks were hover ing overhead. 两只鹰在头顶盘旋。
• Both hawks and doves have expanded their conditions for ending the war. 鹰派和鸽派都充分阐明了各自的停战条件。