2021年经济学人 美国的通货膨胀开始飙升(1)

Inflation

通货膨胀

Base jumping

高空跳伞

America's inflation spike¹ begins

美国的通货膨胀开始飙升

In the spring of 2020 American consumer prices fell for three consecutive² months as the pandemic struck. Rents collapsed³, hotel rooms went empty and oil prices turned negative. All sudden spurts⁴ of deflation or inflation make the news twice: first when they happen and then a year later, when they distort comparisons that look back 12 months. Sure enough on April 13th statisticians announced that consumer prices in March were fully⁵ 2.6% higher than a year earlier, up from 1.7% in February. The increase in headline inflation was the biggest since November 2009, when similar "base effects" were in play after the global financial crisis.

2020年春天大流行爆发后，美国的消费者价格指数连续三个月下降。租金暴跌，酒店客房空空如也，油价下跌。所有突然爆发的通货紧缩或通货膨胀都会出现两次新闻：首先是当它们发生的时候，然后是一年后，当他们对过去12个月进行歪曲对比时。果然，4月13日，统计人员宣布三月份的消费者价格指数比去年同期上涨了2.6%，高于二月份的1.7%。这是自2009年11月以来的最大增幅，当时全球金融危机后也出现了类似的“基数效应”。

It would be wrong, however, to dismiss the rise in inflation as a mere⁶ mathematical quirk⁷. America's economy is emerging from the downturn at great speed as jobs return and vaccinated⁸ consumers start spending. In March alone prices rose by 0.6% compared with the previous month, the fastest pace since 2012. Much of that was driven by a big increase in petrol prices but even the "core" consumer-price index (CPI), which strips out food and energy prices, was up by 0.3% (an annualised pace of 4.1%). Services prices in particular have started to rebound⁹: hotel rooms were 4.4% dearer than a month earlier and rent, a big component¹⁰ of the index, has firmed in recent months. Capital Economics, a consultancy, predicts that the combination of base effects and a boomy reopening will drive the headline annual rate of inflation close to 4% by May.

然而，如果认为通胀上升只是数学上的怪癖，那就大错特错了。随着就业机会的恢复和消费者开始消费，美国经济正以极快的速度从衰退中复苏。仅3月份，房价就比上月上涨了0.6%，这是自2012年以来的最快涨幅。这主要是由于汽油价格的大幅上涨，但即使是剔除食品和能源价格的“核心”消费者价格指数(CPI)也上涨了0.3%(折合成年率为4.1%)。特别是服务价格已经开始反弹：酒店客房价格比一个月前上涨了4.4%，而作为该指数重要组成部分的租金在最近几个月也趋于稳定。咨询公司凯投宏观预测，基数效应和繁荣的重新开业将推动5月份的年通货膨胀率接近4%。

The Federal Reserve targets annual inflation of 2%, but on a different measure— the price index for personal consumption expenditures—which tends to run about a third of a percentage point cooler than CPI. Still, if prices rise at a monthly pace consistent with the Fed's target, as they roughly have in recent months, base effects mean that the target will soon be exceeded in annual terms. Any heat in the economy will lead to further overshooting.

美联储的年通胀率目标是2%，但采用的是另一种衡量标准——个人消费支出的价格指数——它往往比CPI低约三分之一。然而，如果物价以与美联储目标一致的月度速度上涨，就像近几个月来的情况一样，基数效应意味着每年的目标将很快被超越。经济中的任何过热都将导致进一步的过热。

The path of inflation matters more than usual because of the amount of economic uncertainty¹¹ in the air. The relaxation¹² of social-distancing restrictions¹³, President Joe Biden's enormous $1.9trn economic stimulus¹⁴ and the unusual doveishness of the Fed, which is employing a new monetarypolicy framework, together comprise an inflation experiment. It has turned some doves into hawks¹⁵, with economists¹⁷ such as Larry Summers, a former treasury¹⁸ secretary, and Olivier Blanchard, a former chief economist¹⁶ of the IMF, warning of the risk of overheating. And, as the administration follows up its stimulus with an infrastructure¹⁹ bill, how the experiment pans out will help determine how much more deficit²⁰ spending the economy can take.

由于空气中弥漫着大量的经济不确定性，通胀的走势比以往更为重要。放松社交距离限制、美国总统乔·拜登推出1.9万亿美元的巨额经济刺激计划，以及美联储非同寻常的鸽派态度(美联储正在采用新的货币政策框架)，共同构成了一项通胀实验。它已经把一些鸽派变成了鹰派，前财政部长拉里·萨默斯和前国际货币基金组织首席经济学家奥利维尔·布兰查德等经济学家警告了经济过热的风险。而且，随着奥巴马政府在刺激计划之后推出一项基础设施法案，这项试验的结果将有助于决定美国经济还能承受多大的赤字支出。

1 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

2 consecutive   

adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的

参考例句：

• It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
• The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。

3 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

4 spurts   

短暂而突然的活动或努力( spurt的名词复数 )； 突然奋起

参考例句：

• Great spurts of gas shoot out of the sun. 太阳气体射出形成大爆发。
• Spurts of warm rain blew fitfully against their faces. 阵阵温热的雨点拍打在他们脸上。

5 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

6 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

7 quirk   

n.奇事，巧合；古怪的举动

参考例句：

• He had a strange quirk of addressing his wife as Mrs Smith.他很怪，把自己的妻子称作史密斯夫人。
• The most annoying quirk of his is wearing a cap all the time.他最令人感到厌恶的怪癖就是无论何时都戴著帽子。

8 vaccinated   

[医]已接种的，种痘的，接种过疫菌的

参考例句：

• I was vaccinated against tetanus. 我接种了破伤风疫苗。
• Were you vaccinated against smallpox as a child? 你小时候打过天花疫苗吗？

9 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

10 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

11 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

12 relaxation   

n.松弛，放松；休息；消遣；娱乐

参考例句：

• The minister has consistently opposed any relaxation in the law.部长一向反对法律上的任何放宽。
• She listens to classical music for relaxation.她听古典音乐放松。

13 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

14 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

15 hawks   

鹰( hawk的名词复数 )； 鹰派人物，主战派人物

参考例句：

• Two hawks were hover ing overhead. 两只鹰在头顶盘旋。
• Both hawks and doves have expanded their conditions for ending the war. 鹰派和鸽派都充分阐明了各自的停战条件。

16 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

17 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

18 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

19 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

20 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。