2021年经济学人 新兴市场：压力来袭（3）

An uptick in American Treasury¹ yields in February and March this year was accompanied by a slowdown in portfolio² flows to emerging markets, seemingly presaging³ worse to come.

今年2月和3月美国国债收益率的上升伴随着投资组合流入新兴市场的放缓，似乎预示着更糟糕的情况即将到来。

That has not materialised, however, and not only because Treasury yields have dropped back from their spring highs.

然而，这并没有确实发生，这不仅仅是因为美国国债收益率已从春季高点回落。

It also reflects a more robust⁴ policy framework in emerging economies, and greater resilience to market swings.

这也反映出新兴经济体的政策框架更加稳健，对市场波动的抵御能力也更强。

In recent decades they have built up foreign-exchange reserves and limited their dependence⁵ on foreign-currency debt.

近几十年来，他们建立了外汇储备，并减少了对外币债务的依赖。

Most survived a severe squeeze in March 2020, when panicked investors⁷ rushed to havens⁸ and emerging markets’ currencies tumbled, with minimal⁹ economic damage.

2020年3月，当恐慌的投资者涌向避险资产，新兴市场货币大幅贬值，大多数新兴市场国家都幸存了下来，对它们的经济造成的损害很小。

By comparison, recent exchange-rate wobbles have been modest, which has limited the extent to which higher import prices add to inflationary pressure.

相比之下，最近的汇率波动比较温和，这限制了更高的进口价格对通胀造成的压力。

So far this year the Brazilian real and the Indian rupee have weakened against the dollar by about 2%.

今年到目前为止，巴西雷亚尔和印度卢比对美元贬值了约2%。

(The real sank by nearly a quarter last year, and by about 20% during the ructions of 2013.)

(雷亚尔去年下跌了近四分之一，在2013年的动荡中下跌了约20%。)

Vigilant¹⁰ central banks probably helped keep investors from growing skittish¹¹.

警惕的央行可能帮助投资者保持了警惕。

But higher interest rates are tough medicine at home.

但是在国内，高利率是一剂良药。

Large increases pose a risk to growth.

大幅增长会给经济增长带来风险。

Slower growth in turn hurts the public coffers, even as higher interest rates raise governments’ borrowing costs.

即使高利率提高了政府的借贷成本，但经济增长放缓也会损害公共财政。

Among the large emerging economies, the risk of a crisis is perhaps most palpable in Brazil, where a loss of confidence in the public finances contributed to a deep recession in 2015 and 2016.

在大型新兴经济体中，巴西的危机风险可能最为明显，该国对公共财政的信心丧失导致了2015年和2016年的严重衰退。

If the fiscal¹² risk premium¹³ that bond-buyers demand continues to rise, then the government may soon face a terrible choice between slashing¹⁴ spending while unemployment remains¹⁵ high and a full-blown fiscal crisis.

如果债券买家所要求的财政风险溢价继续上升，政府可能很快就会面临一个可怕的选择：要么在失业率居高不下的情况下削减支出，要么爆发全面的财政危机。

Indeed, on August 12th Roberto Campos Neto, the head of Brazil’s central bank, fretted¹⁶ that markets were beginning to perceive a “fiscal deterioration” that could jeopardise economic recovery.

事实上，8月12日，巴西央行行长罗伯托·坎波斯·内托(Roberto Campos Neto)对市场开始察觉到可能危及经济复苏的“财政恶化”感到很焦虑。

Recent woes¹⁷ only make the inflation problem starker—and at risk of spilling over to other countries.

近期的困难只会让通货膨胀问题更加突出，并且有蔓延到其他国家的风险。

A severe drought in Brazil has reduced the capacity of its hydroelectric plants and sent energy prices soaring.

巴西的严重干旱降低了水力发电厂的产能，并导致能源价格飙升。

It also threatens the production of export crops like coffee, leading to reduced supplies and higher prices.

它还威胁到咖啡等出口作物的生产，导致供应减少和价格上涨。

Low levels of the Paraná river have forced firms like Vale, a mining company, to reduce the loads of iron ore being carried on barges¹⁸, causing global shortages.

由于巴拉那河水位较低，矿业公司Vale等公司不得不减少运输铁矿石的驳船的装载量，进而导致全球铁矿石短缺。

Russia’s government is taxing wheat shipments abroad, contributing to higher prices worldwide.

俄罗斯政府对小麦出口征税，导致全球小麦价格上涨。

The fever could break later in the year, as bottlenecks¹⁹ ease and as demand from America and China cools a little.

随着瓶颈缓解以及来自美国和中国的需求有所降温，这股热潮可能会在今年晚些时候结束。

Yet there is also a risk of new disruptions: fresh outbreaks of covid-19, more natural disasters or social unrest, perhaps related to higher food prices.

然而，也存在新的破坏风险：新冠疫情再次爆发、更多自然灾害或社会动荡，可能与粮食价格上涨有关。

And for exporters like Brazil, softer commodity prices bring their own problems, such as a tumbling currency and an economic slowdown.

对巴西这样的出口国来说，大宗商品价格走软也带来了自己的问题，比如汇率暴跌和经济放缓。

A turn for the worse in one country could sour investor⁶ sentiment towards other places.

一个国家的情况恶化，可能会影响投资者对其他国家的信心。

Emerging markets have handled the economic strains of the past 18 months with fortitude²⁰.

过去18个月里，新兴市场顽强地应对了经济压力。

But a break in the heat cannot come soon enough.

但这些压力很快就会消退。

1 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

2 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

3 presaging   

v.预示，预兆( presage的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• There is talk of the failed deal presaging a break-up. 对于交易失败的就预示着解散的说法不过是传言。 来自互联网

4 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

5 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

6 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

7 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

8 havens   

n.港口，安全地方( haven的名词复数 )v.港口，安全地方( haven的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Your twenty havens would back out at the last minute anyhow. 你那二十个避难所到了最后一分钟也要不认帐。 来自辞典例句
• Using offshore havens to avoid taxes and investor protections. 使用海面的港口避免税和投资者保护。 来自互联网

9 minimal   

adj.尽可能少的，最小的

参考例句：

• They referred to this kind of art as minimal art.他们把这种艺术叫微型艺术。
• I stayed with friends, so my expenses were minimal.我住在朋友家，所以我的花费很小。

10 vigilant   

adj.警觉的，警戒的，警惕的

参考例句：

• He has to learn how to remain vigilant through these long nights.他得学会如何在这漫长的黑夜里保持警觉。
• The dog kept a vigilant guard over the house.这只狗警醒地守护着这所房屋。

11 skittish   

adj.易激动的，轻佻的

参考例句：

• She gets very skittish when her boy-friend is around.她男朋友在场时，她就显得格外轻佻。
• I won't have my son associating with skittish girls.我不准我的儿子与轻佻的女孩交往。

12 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

13 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

14 slashing   

adj.尖锐的；苛刻的；鲜明的；乱砍的v.挥砍( slash的现在分词 )；鞭打；割破；削减

参考例句：

• Slashing is the first process in which liquid treatment is involved. 浆纱是液处理的第一过程。 来自辞典例句
• He stopped slashing his horse. 他住了手，不去鞭打他的马了。 来自辞典例句

15 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

16 fretted   

焦躁的，附有弦马的，腐蚀的

参考例句：

• The wind whistled through the twigs and fretted the occasional, dirty-looking crocuses. 寒风穿过枯枝，有时把发脏的藏红花吹刮跑了。 来自英汉文学
• The lady's fame for hitting the mark fretted him. 这位太太看问题深刻的名声在折磨着他。

17 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

18 barges   

驳船( barge的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The tug is towing three barges. 那只拖船正拖着三只驳船。
• There were plenty of barges dropping down with the tide. 有不少驳船顺流而下。

19 bottlenecks   

n.瓶颈( bottleneck的名词复数 )；瓶颈路段（常引起交通堵塞）；（尤指工商业发展的）瓶颈；阻碍

参考例句：

• Roadworks are causing bottlenecks in the city centre. 道路施工导致市中心交通阻塞。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• At five o'clock in the afternoon the city streets are a series of bottlenecks. 下午五点市中心的街道就成了拥挤不堪的窄路。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

20 fortitude   

n.坚忍不拔；刚毅

参考例句：

• His dauntless fortitude makes him absolutely fearless.他不屈不挠的坚韧让他绝无恐惧。
• He bore the pain with great fortitude.他以极大的毅力忍受了痛苦。