2021年经济学人 美国通货膨胀的根源

Finance and Economics

财经版块

Inflation in America

美国的通货膨胀

Rental¹ resurgence²

租赁死灰复燃

Yet another upward force on American inflation: the housing boom

促进美国通货膨胀的另一股力量是房地产繁荣

FROM ENERGY and used cars to wages and shipping³, the list of factors pushing up American inflation is growing fast.

从能源和二手车到工资和航运，推动美国通货膨胀的因素清单正在快速增加。

Could housing be next?

住房会是下一个吗？

According to figures published on October 13th, the consumer-price index (CPI) rose by 5.4% in the year to September.

根据10月13日公布的数据，截至今年9月，消费者价格指数CPI上涨了5.4%。

Its shelter component⁴ increased by 3.2%, up from 2.8% in the year to August.

其住房部分从今年8月的2.8%上升到3.2%。

And it has further to run.

而且它还有更长的路要走。

Shelter has the biggest weight in the CPI, making up 32% of the basket of goods and services used to construct the index.

住房在CPI中的权重最大，占构建该指数的“一篮子商品和服务”的32%。

The component is broken into two main buckets: regular rents paid by tenants⁶, and the imputed⁷ cost of living in owned homes.

这一组成部分分为两个主要部分：租户支付的定期租金，以及估计的自有住房生活成本。

Although house prices rose by 20% in the year to July, they do not feed directly into the CPI.

尽管截至7月份，房价一年上涨了20%，但它们并没有直接影响CPI指数。

That is because statisticians treat home purchases as investment rather than consumption.

这是因为统计学家将购房视为投资而不是消费。

Instead they capture homeownership by estimating “owners’ equivalent rent”, the amount an owned property could collect based on leased ones nearby.

取而代之的是，他们通过估计“业主等值租金”来获取住房所有权，即一处自有房产根据附近的租赁房产可以收取的金额。

The rental market, therefore, is what drives shelter inflation.

因此，租赁市场是推动住房通胀的原因。

For much of the pandemic both rents and shelter inflation were depressed⁸.

在疫情期间的大部分时间里，租金和住房通胀都处于低迷状态。

But there are two reasons to think the latest pickup⁹ in shelter costs will continue.

但有两个原因让我们认为住房成本的最新回升将持续下去。

The first is the expiry of the government’s eviction¹⁰ moratorium¹¹.

首先是政府的暂缓驱逐令到期。

The policy had helped renters stay in their homes in 2020, even as lockdowns meant some were unable to work.

2020年，这项政策帮助租户留在了家里，尽管封锁意味着一些人无法工作。

Many tenants also negotiated lower rents during that time.

在此期间，许多租户通过谈判降低了租金。

Now that the moratorium has lapsed¹², Goldman Sachs, a bank, expects about 750,000 evictions by the end of year.

现在禁令已经失效，高盛银行预计到今年年底将有大约75万人被驱逐。

That could lead to a jump in rents.

这可能会导致租金飙升。

The largest rises occur when a new tenant⁵ moves in, says Randal Verbrugge of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

克利夫兰联邦储备银行的兰德尔·弗布鲁格说，新租户入住时，房价涨幅最大。

Rents for new leases are up by 17% compared with what the previous tenant paid, suggests RealPage, a rental site.

租赁网站RealPage表示，与之前的租户相比，新租约的租金上涨了17%。

The second reason why shelter inflation might rise further is that market prices feed through to the inflation figures only slowly.

住房通胀可能进一步上升的第二个原因是，市场价格对通胀数据的影响非常缓慢。

Landlords tend to charge more rent when the value of their property goes up, but with a lag.

房产价格上涨时，房东往往会收取更高的租金，但具有一定的滞后性。

Rises in new rents also take time to appear in consumer prices, because leases tend to last a year, and the CPI samples rents only every six months or so.

新租金的上涨也需要一段时间才能体现在消费价格中，因为租赁往往持续一年，而CPI数据每六个月左右才会出现租金上涨。

President Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers¹³ estimates that a one-percentage-point increase in house-price inflation leads to a rise of 0.11 percentage points in the shelter component in 16 months’ time.

美国总统乔·拜登的经济顾问委员会估计，房价通胀每上升1个百分点，住房部分数据在16个月内就会上升0.11个百分点。

A timely measure of rents, published by Zillow, a property site, is up by around 10% on the year.

房地产网站Zillow公布的租金数据显示，今天房租比去年上涨了约10%。

Further rises could follow as more new leases are signed.

随着更多新租约的签署，房价可能会进一步上涨。

Laura Rosner-Warburton of Macro Policy Perspectives, a research firm, expects shelter inflation to climb to 4-6% by the end of 2022.

宏观政策展望研究公司的劳拉·罗斯纳·沃伯顿预计，到2022年底，住房通胀将攀升至4-6%。

That would contribute 1.3-1.9 percentage points to headline inflation, twice its average contribution in the decade before the pandemic.

这将为总体通胀率贡献1.3-1.9个百分点，是疫情前10年平均水平的两倍。

The next inflationary force could be home-grown.

下一股通胀力量可能是国内的。

1 rental   

n.租赁，出租，出租业

参考例句：

• The yearly rental of her house is 2400 yuan.她这房子年租金是2400元。
• We can organise car rental from Chicago O'Hare Airport.我们可以安排提供从芝加哥奥黑尔机场出发的租车服务。

2 resurgence   

n.再起，复活，再现

参考例句：

• A resurgence of his grief swept over Nim.悲痛又涌上了尼姆的心头。
• Police say drugs traffickers are behind the resurgence of violence.警方说毒贩是暴力活动重新抬头的罪魁祸首。

3 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

4 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

5 tenant   

n.承租人；房客；佃户；v.租借，租用

参考例句：

• The tenant was dispossessed for not paying his rent.那名房客因未付房租而被赶走。
• The tenant is responsible for all repairs to the building.租户负责对房屋的所有修理。

6 tenants   

n.房客( tenant的名词复数 )；佃户；占用者；占有者

参考例句：

• A number of tenants have been evicted for not paying the rent. 许多房客因不付房租被赶了出来。
• Tenants are jointly and severally liable for payment of the rent. 租金由承租人共同且分别承担。

7 imputed   

v.把（错误等）归咎于( impute的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They imputed the accident to the driver's carelessness. 他们把这次车祸归咎于司机的疏忽。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• He imputed the failure of his marriage to his wife's shortcomings. 他把婚姻的失败归咎于妻子的缺点。 来自辞典例句

8 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

9 pickup   

n.拾起，获得

参考例句：

• I would love to trade this car for a pickup truck.我愿意用这辆汽车换一辆小型轻便卡车。||The luck guy is a choice pickup for the girls.那位幸运的男孩是女孩子们想勾搭上的人。

10 eviction   

n.租地等的收回

参考例句：

• The family have won a temporary reprieve from eviction.这个家庭暂时免于被逐出。
• He claimed damages for unlawful eviction.他要求对非法驱逐作出赔偿。

11 moratorium   

n.(行动、活动的)暂停(期)，延期偿付

参考例句：

• The government has called for a moratorium on weapons testing.政府已要求暂停武器试验。
• We recommended a moratorium on two particular kinds of experiments.我们建议暂禁两种特殊的实验。

12 lapsed   

adj.流失的，堕落的v.退步( lapse的过去式和过去分词 )；陷入；倒退；丧失

参考例句：

• He had lapsed into unconsciousness. 他陷入了昏迷状态。
• He soon lapsed into his previous bad habits. 他很快陷入以前的恶习中去。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。