Why Russian military moves in Ukraine have not gone as well as expected

Why Russian military moves in Ukraine have not gone as well as expected

Transcript¹

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to Jeffrey Edmonds, a research scientist focusing on Russia's military and an-ex director for Russia at the National Security Council, about Russia's moves against Ukraine.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Five days is not very long in most wars, not very long at all. It is very early in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But after five days, we have some picture of how the attack is developing. Jeffrey Edmonds is going to help us analyze² what's happening. He's a research scientist who focuses on the Russian military. And he is a former director for Russia at the National Security Council, which of course is part of the White House. Mr. Edmonds, welcome to the program.

JEFFREY EDMONDS: Thank you for having me.

INSKEEP: The impression from obsessively³ following social media is that the invasion is not going well for the Russians. We hear of botched raids on airports. We see video of blown-up vehicles. We see armored vehicles out of gas already, Russians who seem short of supplies. But what is your impression?

EDMONDS: That is my impression. So I think the Russian strategy assumed that they would face little resistance from the Ukrainians, would be able to move to secure Kyiv quickly and that the Ukrainian military would crumble⁴ when they did. That led to operational blunders like the one you mentioned, the air assault mission with no close follow-on support, military convoys⁵ simply driving into Ukraine, ambushes⁶ and also getting ahead of their logistics. They haven't been really conducting the kind of modern maneuver⁷ warfare⁸ they've trained for.

INSKEEP: You get the impression that some Russian soldiers at least have no idea what they're doing. The Ukrainians have released videos - and again, these are data points. These are individuals. But you have individuals who are saying, I just thought I was on a training mission. I didn't realize I was even here to attack Ukraine. Is that credible⁹ to you, that some portion of the Russian force really has no clear instructions?

EDMONDS: That is credible. I think even, you know, throughout the military ranks, but also into the political sphere, there were many that had no idea that this was actually going to turn into a full invasion of the country. And I imagine the further down the ranks that you got, the less soldiers actually knew that.

INSKEEP: Do you think the Russian plan, as you alluded¹⁰ to a moment ago, was really just, they were going to step across the border and the Ukrainian government was going to collapse¹¹?

EDMONDS: I do. I think they hoped for a quick victory, maybe something similar to Crimea - I mean, a little more difficult than Crimea, but something like that. And then they would be able to manage the political outcome. They clearly overestimated¹² the level of support they would receive in Ukraine and underestimated the level of resistance that they would meet.

INSKEEP: I guess we should remind people that in Crimea, there was a larger Russian-speaking population. And Russians were able to slip in in a more covert¹³ way - into Crimea...

EDMONDS: That's right.

INSKEEP: ...And take it over before most people realized what was happening. But in this case, there were months and months and months of warnings. We should mention, though, isn't there an awful lot of firepower that Russia has, and an awful lot of technology that Russia has, that they have yet to bring to bear?

EDMONDS: I mean, that's correct. The military can stay at this for quite some time. They have much more to commit. And they appear, just over the last 12, 24 hours, to be using some of the more sophisticated platforms that we didn't see as much of in the early part of this conflict. But there's also the likelihood that as this gets bogged¹⁴ down in urban warfare, the Russians will move to more heavy-handed tactics. And that will make it actually harder for them to achieve their political goals.

INSKEEP: I've seen images of what are called thermobaric weapons, which is a frightening-sounding term. What is that? And what could that do to a city?

EDMONDS: These are very devastating¹⁵ weapons that create a gas cloud that then explodes. And these are the weapons they used to clear out Aleppo. I used to say, you know, Aleppo is very peaceful now because most of the population is dead. And that's - you know, that's the kind of warfare we're hoping this doesn't turn into. But those are very indiscriminate weapons that cause mass destruction.

INSKEEP: And these are weapons that the Russians were comfortable using in their engagement in Syria?

EDMONDS: They were.

INSKEEP: One other thing to ask about - as you know, Russian President Vladimir Putin has put nuclear forces on what I guess we could describe as one notch¹⁶ higher state of alert. How concerned are you about that?

EDMONDS: So I think this is largely signaling against the West and bluster¹⁷. And it's not surprising given the level of punitive¹⁸ measures we've put on, fumbling¹⁹ operations. He's also very quick to mention nuclear weapons. I don't think we should be concerned at this time. Where this does become pretty critical is if this conflict expands into a wider U.S.-NATO-Russia open conflict.

INSKEEP: Mr. Edmonds, thanks for the analysis, really appreciate it.

EDMONDS: Thanks for having me.

INSKEEP: Jeffrey Edmonds is with the research and analysis organization CNA.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 analyze   

vt.分析，解析 (=analyse)

参考例句：

• We should analyze the cause and effect of this event.我们应该分析这场事变的因果。
• The teacher tried to analyze the cause of our failure.老师设法分析我们失败的原因。

3 obsessively   

ad.着迷般地，过分地

参考例句：

• Peter was obsessively jealous and his behaviour was driving his wife away. 彼得过分嫉妒的举止令他的妻子想离他而去。
• He's rude to his friends and obsessively jealous. 他对他的朋友很无礼而且嫉妒心重。

4 crumble   

vi.碎裂，崩溃；vt.弄碎，摧毁

参考例句：

• Opposition more or less crumbled away.反对势力差不多都瓦解了。
• Even if the seas go dry and rocks crumble,my will will remain firm.纵然海枯石烂，意志永不动摇。

5 convoys   

n.（有护航的）船队( convoy的名词复数 )；车队；护航（队）；护送队

参考例句：

• Truck convoys often stop over for lunch here. 车队经常在这里停下来吃午饭。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• A UN official said aid programs will be suspended until there's adequate protection for relief convoys. 一名联合国官员说将会暂停援助项目，直到援助车队能够得到充分的保护为止。 来自辞典例句

6 ambushes   

n.埋伏( ambush的名词复数 )；伏击；埋伏着的人；设埋伏点v.埋伏( ambush的第三人称单数 )；埋伏着

参考例句：

• He was a specialist in ambushes, he said, and explained his tactics. 他说自己是埋伏战斗方面的专家，并讲述了他的战术。 来自互联网
• It makes ambushes rather fun. 它使得埋伏战术非常有趣。 来自互联网

7 maneuver   

n.策略[pl.]演习；v.(巧妙)控制；用策略

参考例句：

• All the fighters landed safely on the airport after the military maneuver.在军事演习后，所有战斗机都安全降落在机场上。
• I did get her attention with this maneuver.我用这个策略确实引起了她的注意。

8 warfare   

n.战争(状态)；斗争；冲突

参考例句：

• He addressed the audience on the subject of atomic warfare.他向听众演讲有关原子战争的问题。
• Their struggle consists mainly in peasant guerrilla warfare.他们的斗争主要是农民游击战。

9 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

10 alluded   

提及，暗指( allude的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• In your remarks you alluded to a certain sinister design. 在你的谈话中，你提到了某个阴谋。
• She also alluded to her rival's past marital troubles. 她还影射了对手过去的婚姻问题。

11 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

12 overestimated   

对（数量）估计过高，对…作过高的评价( overestimate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They overestimated his ability when they promoted him. 他们提拔他的时候高估了他的能力。
• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。

13 covert   

adj.隐藏的；暗地里的

参考例句：

• We should learn to fight with enemy in an overt and covert way.我们应学会同敌人做公开和隐蔽的斗争。
• The army carried out covert surveillance of the building for several months.军队对这座建筑物进行了数月的秘密监视。

14 bogged   

adj.陷于泥沼的v.（使）陷入泥沼， （使）陷入困境( bog的过去式和过去分词 )；妨碍，阻碍

参考例句：

• The professor bogged down in the middle of his speech. 教授的演讲只说了一半便讲不下去了。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The tractor is bogged down in the mud. 拖拉机陷入了泥沼。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

16 notch   

n.(V字形)槽口，缺口，等级

参考例句：

• The peanuts they grow are top-notch.他们种的花生是拔尖的。
• He cut a notch in the stick with a sharp knife.他用利刃在棒上刻了一个凹痕。

17 bluster   

v.猛刮；怒冲冲的说；n.吓唬，怒号；狂风声

参考例句：

• We could hear the bluster of the wind and rain.我们能听到狂风暴雨的吹打声。
• He was inclined to bluster at first,but he soon dropped.起初他老爱吵闹一阵，可是不久就不做声了。

18 punitive   

adj.惩罚的，刑罚的

参考例句：

• They took punitive measures against the whole gang.他们对整帮人采取惩罚性措施。
• The punitive tariff was imposed to discourage tire imports from China.该惩罚性关税的征收是用以限制中国轮胎进口的措施。

19 fumbling   

n. 摸索,漏接 v. 摸索,摸弄,笨拙的处理

参考例句：

• If he actually managed to the ball instead of fumbling it with an off-balance shot. 如果他实际上设法拿好球而不是fumbling它。50-balance射击笨拙地和迅速地会开始他的岗位移动，经常这样结束。
• If he actually managed to secure the ball instead of fumbling it awkwardly an off-balance shot. 如果他实际上设法拿好球而不是fumbling它。50-50提议有时。他从off-balance射击笨拙地和迅速地会开始他的岗位移动，经常这样结束。