An economic indicator sheds light on the trucking industry

An economic indicator¹ sheds light on the trucking industry

Transcript²

The spot market rate can tell you about the state of the trucking industry, and sometimes the economy at large. It hit highs early in the pandemic, but it's down 15% since the start of the year.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

There is an economic indicator that can reveal the state of the trucking industry and sometimes the economy at large. It's called the spot market rate, and it hit historic highs early in the pandemic. But this year, it's fallen fast. Paddy Hirsch and Wailin Wong from our daily economics podcast The Indicator explain what that means.

WAILIN WONG, BYLINE³: If you need to truck your goods across the U.S., there are two ways you can do it. You can use the contract market, where you make a contract with a haulage firm. That's where the cost of transportation is agreed to weeks or months in advance. Or you can use the spot market.

KENDRA TUCKER: So at any given moment or any given location, there's a market for drivers and riders.

PADDY HIRSCH, BYLINE: This is Kendra Tucker. She's the CEO of truckstop.com It's a service that links people who need to move their goods with drivers who can do the moving for them.

TUCKER: One everyday example of a spot market is a ride-sharing app, like Uber or Lyft.

HIRSCH: The spot market in trucking is super dynamic, with prices rising and falling all the time, as supply and demand fluctuates. But during the pandemic, of course, we saw a massive surge in demand for goods, and that led to a surge in demand for truckers to ship those goods, and, of course, that led to a surge in transportation prices. Since 2020, the cost per mile to ship something in a truck has gone pretty much only one way - upwards⁴.

WONG: Close to a 60% increase in the spot rates, an increase that peaked in January this year and created an interesting wrinkle in the trucking market.

HIRSCH: As those spot prices began to rise, contract market truckers started to get jealous of their spot market peers, and they started to reject their contracts.

TUCKER: So just because the contract exists doesn't mean the contract is always honored, particularly when spot market rates start doing what they've been doing. Carriers then say, I've got to get out of this contract because I could make more in the spot market.

HIRSCH: But of course, now the spot price is falling - down 15% since January. And in the past, a slump⁵ in the spot market has been kind of like a red light flashing on the dash of the trucking industry and maybe even the economy at large, warning that a correction could be coming or maybe even a recession.

TUCKER: We generally avoid the R word, in that it's not actually recessionary. I guess it's recessionary in that demand is receding⁶. But demand was incredibly high, right? So what we're headed back to now is a normal market based on the trends that we see.

WONG: A normal market - and this makes sense, right? We are now coming out of the pandemic - fingers crossed.

HIRSCH: Fingers crossed.

WONG: And so our demand for services is rising, and our demand for goods is falling. That ebbing⁷ demand for goods means less demand for trucks.

HIRSCH: Which is good for the consumer, right? Because it means our stuff costs less to ship and, therefore, should be marginally less expensive.

WONG: But what about all those new trucking entrepreneurs who entered the market while it was raging hot?

DEMETRIS WASHINGTON: My name is Demetris Washington (ph). I'm the owner of Nomadic⁸ Transx LLC.

HIRSCH: Demetris started his own small trucking business in Maryland.

WASHINGTON: The industry right now is tough. You know, gas prices are really high and...

HIRSCH: But all of these problems aside, Demetris doesn't think that the sky is falling. Like Kendra Tucker, he believes that the industry is merely in a correction, and he's doing OK. Last week, he says, he broke even. That felt great.

Paddy Hirsch.

WONG: Wailin Wong, NPR News.

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NPR transcripts⁹ are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor¹⁰. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative¹¹ record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

1 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

4 upwards   

adv.向上，在更高处...以上

参考例句：

• The trend of prices is still upwards.物价的趋向是仍在上涨。
• The smoke rose straight upwards.烟一直向上升。

5 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

6 receding   

v.逐渐远离( recede的现在分词 )；向后倾斜；自原处后退或避开别人的注视；尤指问题

参考例句：

• Desperately he struck out after the receding lights of the yacht. 游艇的灯光渐去渐远，他拼命划水追赶。 来自辞典例句
• Sounds produced by vehicles receding from us seem lower-pitched than usual. 渐渐远离我们的运载工具发出的声似乎比平常的音调低。 来自辞典例句

7 ebbing   

（指潮水）退( ebb的现在分词 )； 落； 减少； 衰落

参考例句：

• The pain was ebbing. 疼痛逐渐减轻了。
• There are indications that his esoteric popularity may be ebbing. 有迹象表明，他神秘的声望可能正在下降。

8 nomadic   

adj.流浪的；游牧的

参考例句：

• This tribe still live a nomadic life.这个民族仍然过着游牧生活。
• The plowing culture and the nomadic culture are two traditional principal cultures in China.农耕文化与游牧文化是我国传统的两大主体文化。

9 transcripts   

n.抄本（ transcript的名词复数 ）；转写本；文字本；副本

参考例句：

• Like mRNA, both tRNA and rRNA are transcripts of chromosomal DNA. tRNA及rRNA同mRNA一样，都是染色体DNA的转录产物。 来自辞典例句
• You can't take the transfer students'exam without your transcripts. 没有成绩证明书，你就不能参加转学考试。 来自辞典例句

10 contractor   

n.订约人，承包人，收缩肌

参考例句：

• The Tokyo contractor was asked to kick $ 6000 back as commission.那个东京的承包商被要求退还6000美元作为佣金。
• The style of house the contractor builds depends partly on the lay of the land.承包商所建房屋的式样，有几分要看地势而定。

11 authoritative   

adj.有权威的，可相信的；命令式的；官方的

参考例句：

• David speaks in an authoritative tone.大卫以命令的口吻说话。
• Her smile was warm but authoritative.她的笑容很和蔼，同时又透着威严。