美国国家公共电台 NPR--As foreign workers return, economists see help for labor shortages and inflation

As foreign workers return, economists¹ see help for labor² shortages and inflation

Transcript³

REHOBOTH BEACH, Delaware — When the crowds return to Funland this summer, they'll find familiar rides like the Fire Engines and the Sea Dragon at this small beachside amusement park.

For the first time since the pandemic began, many of those rides and games will be staffed by student guest workers from around the world.

"They are truly important to the success of our business," said Chris Darr, the personnel manager at Funland. "We saw last year, we couldn't fill the positions that we had."

The number of guest workers and immigrants coming to the United States is slowly climbing again after steep declines during the pandemic. Tens of thousands of international students are back at resort towns and amusement parks. The Biden administration has released more visas for seasonal⁴ guest workers, and it's automatically extending work permits for others.

Economists say that should ease labor shortages — and some, though not all, think it could help calm inflation too.

"Hopefully if this trend continues, and maybe accelerates, we will see the easing of some of the shortages," said Giovanni Peri, an economics professor at the University of California, Davis.

Businesses in Rehoboth Beach rely on seasonal guest workers

Employers in Rehoboth Beach are clearly glad to have these temporary student workers back. Without them, Darr says, he couldn't hire enough people to keep Funland open every day.

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"Especially at the end of the summer, early August, we lose college students, we lose high school students back to sports and theater programs," said Darr, a fourth-generation member of the family that owns the park.

For decades, he says, Funland has relied on students coming to the U.S. on J-1 visas. But the program was all but shut down in 2020. The numbers were up last year, though still far short of pre-pandemic levels.

"Without the J-1 visa program, we wouldn't be able to open half of the stuff that is in the park," he said.

This summer, Darr is expecting about two dozen student guest workers — including 21-year-old Morgan Bennett, a student from Jamaica.

"There was a listing of all the different places that I could have worked," Bennett said. "When the person had told me the type of job that I would have encountered, I just said yes!"

The State Department says the number of participants in its summer work travel program is rebounding⁶ toward pre-pandemic levels. Roughly 30,000 participants have started the program already this year, according to a State Department official, with about 50,000 more in the pipeline⁷. That would put the program at roughly three-quarters of its enrollment⁸ in 2019, when more than 108,000 visas were issued.

More guest workers could help ease labor shortages

Overall, the U.S. economy is about two million working-age immigrants short of where it would have been if not for the pandemic and the Trump⁹ administration's cuts, according to Peri. He says that's contributed to a tighter labor market, putting pressure on employers to raise wages — and in turn, prices.

"If these shortages loosens up — so if there are more workers — this should also reduce the inflationary pressures," Peri said. That's especially true, he says, in industries that depend heavily on immigrant labor, like hospitality.

"We were 32 employees short last summer," said Susan Wood, who owns the Cultured Pearl Restaurant and Sushi Bar in Rehoboth Beach. "It was torture. I mean all of our staff work six, seven days. They killed themselves."

"I worked 183 days straight at the front desk, and my husband worked more than that in the kitchen," she said.

Wood is also participating in the J-1 visa program this year. Without those international student workers, she says, her year-round staff worked a lot of overtime¹⁰ last summer, driving her labor costs way up.

"We had to raise prices," Wood said. "We raised prices because of payroll¹¹, but not nearly as much as we had to raise prices because of food costs."

Some economists doubt that more immigration will cure inflation

The costs of food and energy are still rising fast. Economists say that's contributing to inflation across the economy — and some are skeptical¹² that a partial rebound⁵ in the number of guest workers and immigrants will have a measurable impact.

"I don't think it's going to do much to fix our inflation problem," said Ramesh Ponnuru, the editor of the National Review, and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank in Washington.

Ponnuru argues that inflation right now is largely caused by problems in the supply chain, and that simply bringing immigration back to pre-COVID levels won't solve those problems.

"We need an immigration policy designed with our economy's interests in mind. We don't have that," Ponnuru said. "And just toggling that so that you have more of a dysfunctional immigration policy seems to me to be a mistake."

Temporary guest workers are already making an impact on the bottom line at Thrasher's French Fries in Rehoboth Beach. General manager Dean Shuttleworth is expecting about a dozen international student workers this summer, which means that he'll have enough staff to reopen another location across the street that's been shuttered since the pandemic began.

"[Memorial Day] weekend was the first time we opened our 26 Rehoboth Avenue store up in two years," Shuttleworth said.

"Last year, we had the volume up. We were extremely busy," he said. "So I'm in pretty good shape this year."

Still, Shuttleworth says he's raising prices this summer — to keep up with the rising cost of potatoes and paper cups.

1 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

3 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

4 seasonal   

adj.季节的，季节性的

参考例句：

• The town relies on the seasonal tourist industry for jobs.这个城镇依靠季节性旅游业提供就业机会。
• The hors d'oeuvre is seasonal vegetables.餐前小吃是应时蔬菜。

5 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

6 rebounding   

蹦跳运动

参考例句：

• The strength of negative temperature concrete is tested with supersonic-rebounding method. 本文将超声回弹综合法用于负温混凝土强度检测。
• The fundamental of basketball includes shooting, passing and catching, rebounding, etc. 篮球运动中最基本的东西包括投篮，传接球，篮板球等。

7 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

8 enrollment   

n.注册或登记的人数；登记

参考例句：

• You will be given a reading list at enrollment.注册时你会收到一份阅读书目。
• I just got the enrollment notice from Fudan University.我刚刚接到复旦大学的入学通知书。

9 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

10 overtime   

adj.超时的，加班的；adv.加班地

参考例句：

• They are working overtime to finish the work.为了完成任务他们正在加班加点地工作。
• He was paid for the overtime he worked.他领到了加班费。

11 payroll   

n.工资表，在职人员名单，工薪总额

参考例句：

• His yearly payroll is $1.2 million.他的年薪是120万美元。
• I can't wait to get my payroll check.我真等不及拿到我的工资单了。

12 skeptical   

adj.怀疑的，多疑的

参考例句：

• Others here are more skeptical about the chances for justice being done.这里的其他人更为怀疑正义能否得到伸张。
• Her look was skeptical and resigned.她的表情是将信将疑而又无可奈何。