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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
Republican primaries show that Trump1 voters don't always follow his endorsements3
Former President Donald Trump has been a near-constant presence in this year's Republican primaries. Candidates have eagerly sought his endorsement2, with some making a pilgrimage to his Mar-a-Lago estate to ask for his support in person.
Trump has at times used his endorsement as a tool of revenge, in an attempt to take down GOP officeholders who have crossed him — most notably5 those who did not support his effort to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
But with several weeks of primaries now complete, a trend has emerged: Republican voters — even those who maintain Trump was a great president — are not marching in lockstep with him. Many are instead bucking6 his endorsements.
"Republican voters are not monolithic," veteran GOP strategist Dallas Woodhouse said. "They are not falling all over each other waiting to hear who Trump endorses7 to make their decision." Yes, it is a factor, Woodhouse added, "and it can be a big factor, but it's not necessarily the determinant factor."
Some voters undoubtedly8 have been waiting on Trump. Take Kathy Deal, for instance. When she spoke9 with NPR back in March, the resident of Lancaster, Ohio, was undecided and eager to hear from Trump on the state's Republican candidates for U.S. Senate.
"That would definitely seal it for sure, it would seal it," Deal said, weeks before Trump made a late endorsement of Hillbilly Elegy10 author J.D. Vance, who would go on to win the nomination11.
It was a very different story for one voter weeks later in Pennsylvania. Seventy-one-year-old Trump supporter Bob Rapp was not pleased that the former president had endorsed12 celebrity13 TV doctor Mehmet Oz in the GOP Senate contest there. Rapp told NPR in April that he doesn't think Oz is even a conservative.
"Some of his stances have been pretty liberal on his TV show," Rapp said. "I'm just concerned that he may be a RINO [Republican in name only]."
But that didn't mean being at odds14 with Trump over Oz had affected15 his strong admiration16 for the former president.
"No, because it's his prerogative," Rapp said. "You don't agree with your leaders 100% of the time." He maintained firmly that Trump's endorsement wouldn't sway him.
Oz did eventually win the nomination in an extremely close contest. Rapp told NPR later that he voted for businessman Dave McCormick, who conceded during a recount.
A solid success rate, but in key races it's a mixed bag for Trump
Taking a broad look at how Trump's endorsements have fared so far, his win-loss record is strong, but a lot of that is because mostly he backs popular incumbents18 or frontrunners, like Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, who didn't really need his support to secure a nomination.
In other contests Trump's record is more mixed.
"Trump's endorsement is not a magic wand or a silver bullet," said Sarah Longwell, a longtime GOP consultant19 and the publisher of The Bulwark20 website.
She's been watching the impact of Trump endorsements and notes that in certain situations it can provide a big boost, especially in highly competitive races with lots of candidates. In such contests, Trump's support can mean more press coverage21 and create momentum22. Longwell says that's what happened in Ohio's U.S. Senate primary.
"Where there's a big group of Republicans, and they're all battling it out, and they're all telling the voters how terrible their opponents are, and people are kind of not sure who they like, and when Trump comes in with an endorsement, it tends to kind of elevate people in these races," she said.
Longwell says that laundry list of factors all aligned23 to help Vance win in Ohio.
But not all of Trump's picks get such a boost, especially when they are the challenger attempting to knock off an incumbent17 with high name recognition and a track record.
Take Georgia, where Trump put his credibility on the line by endorsing24 challengers to a pair of Republican incumbents — Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Both men crossed Trump when they rebuffed his requests that they use their power to overturn Trump's loss in Georgia in the 2020 election. Trump based his endorsements in these races entirely25 on his lie that the 2020 election was stolen, and that these two elected officials betrayed him by not supporting him in that falsehood.
But there was a problem for Trump in these contests: Kemp and Raffensperger each had a broad base of support among GOP voters, and each had a record of accomplishment26 that could compete with Trump's bid for vengeance27.
Longwell has been conducting regular focus groups with Trump supporters. In a session with Georgia voters, she heard from people like Laura (focus group members are only identified by their first name), who was still undecided about her vote, but who still had good things to say about the governor.
"I like what Brian Kemp has done," Laura said, "and I liked how he handled COVID." Then for emphasis, she added: "The state seems to be running smoothly28 to me."
It's not known who Laura eventually cast her ballot29 for, but it is known that Kemp won reelection by a margin30 of more than 50 percentage points. Raffensperger won his primary too, also by a substantial margin of 19 points.
Then there's an example in North Carolina, where even a Trump endorsement couldn't save scandal-plagued Congressman31 Madison Cawthorn in his primary.
GOP strategist Woodhouse says Trump may have actually helped Cawthorn in what was a very tough primary from a conservative challenger. At the very least, Woodhouse said, "Nobody is going to blame the president for Cawthorn's loss because Cawthorn had had a long series of self-inflicted wounds."
Still, he says, it does help demonstrate how a Trump endorsement has limits.
When Trump's pick loses, a Trump-like figure still wins
Woodhouse says a key part of all this is the overall makeup32 of the races in Republican primaries this year — and likely into the near future.
In contest after contest, voters are not choosing between a Trump-endorsed candidate and an anti-Trump candidate. Most every GOP hopeful runs on a pro-Trump list of issues. Sometimes that includes support for the lie that Trump really won in 2020, but it also always includes support for Trump's positions and rhetoric33 on issues like building a southern border wall and getting tough with China on trade — with lots of cultural issues thrown in.
"I mean, any candidates going forward are going to adopt those core issues that were part of the America First agenda," Woodhouse said.
So even if his candidate loses, Trump's issues are very much on the winning side in these primaries.
And there's another potentially significant impact Trump is having in the primaries: He's endorsing candidates far down the ballot, for local races, something unheard of for a former president.
Longwell said that allows Republicans to increase their presence in key local offices that don't typically get a lot of attention on Election Day, "which allows people who are totally unknown, and maybe even in many cases running unopposed for offices that people pay almost no attention to, to raise some money, to gain some profile."
For the GOP, she said, it's a matter of building a deep bench of officeholders "to really fill that with people who are very much in Donald Trump's image."
And that could end being Trump's biggest impact on the 2022 elections.
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trump
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| n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭 | |
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endorsement
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| n.背书；赞成，认可，担保；签(注)，批注 | |
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endorsements
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| n.背书( endorsement的名词复数 )；（驾驶执照上的）违章记录；（公开的）赞同；（通常为名人在广告中对某一产品的）宣传 | |
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transcript
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| n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书 | |
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notably
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| adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地 | |
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bucking
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| v.（马等）猛然弓背跃起( buck的现在分词 )；抵制；猛然震荡；马等尥起后蹄跳跃 | |
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endorses
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| v.赞同( endorse的第三人称单数 )；在（尤指支票的）背面签字；在（文件的）背面写评论；在广告上说本人使用并赞同某产品 | |
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undoubtedly
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| adv.确实地，无疑地 | |
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spoke
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| n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说 | |
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elegy
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| n.哀歌，挽歌 | |
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nomination
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| n.提名，任命，提名权 | |
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endorsed
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| vt.& vi.endorse的过去式或过去分词形式v.赞同( endorse的过去式和过去分词 )；在（尤指支票的）背面签字；在（文件的）背面写评论；在广告上说本人使用并赞同某产品 | |
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celebrity
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| n.名人，名流；著名，名声，名望 | |
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odds
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| n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别 | |
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affected
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| adj.不自然的，假装的 | |
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admiration
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| n.钦佩，赞美，羡慕 | |
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incumbent
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| adj.成为责任的，有义务的；现任的，在职的 | |
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incumbents
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| 教区牧师( incumbent的名词复数 )； 教会中的任职者 | |
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consultant
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| n.顾问；会诊医师，专科医生 | |
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bulwark
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| n.堡垒，保障，防御 | |
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coverage
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| n.报导，保险范围，保险额，范围，覆盖 | |
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momentum
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| n.动力，冲力，势头；动量 | |
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aligned
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| adj.对齐的，均衡的 | |
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endorsing
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| v.赞同( endorse的现在分词 )；在（尤指支票的）背面签字；在（文件的）背面写评论；在广告上说本人使用并赞同某产品 | |
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entirely
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| ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地 | |
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accomplishment
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| n.完成，成就，（pl.）造诣，技能 | |
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vengeance
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| n.报复，报仇，复仇 | |
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smoothly
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| adv.平滑地，顺利地，流利地，流畅地 | |
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ballot
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| n.（不记名）投票，投票总数，投票权；vi.投票 | |
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margin
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| n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘 | |
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Congressman
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| n.（美）国会议员 | |
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makeup
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| n.组织；性格；化装品 | |
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rhetoric
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| n.修辞学，浮夸之言语 | |
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