2018年CRI Tariffs to undermine world economic growth: former US diplomat

 

“I think we have dangers in these kinds of policies. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff¹ Act, prior to the Great Depression, is considered one of the causes of the Great Depression that started in 1929. So, if we're to follow these policies of tariffs², this is gonna affect economic growth worldwide and undermine what is a pretty good global economy today.”

                                                                            --Stephen Orlins, President of US National Committee on US-China Relations

Economic observers and entrepreneurs are voicing concern and hope over a looming³ China-US trade dispute.

China announced plans to launch an anti-dumping investigation⁴ into imports of phenol from five countries, including the US, on Monday.

This comes after US President Donald Trump⁵ signed a memorandum⁶ last week which could impose tariffs on up to 60 billion US dollars’ worth of imports from China.

For more on this, CRI's Yang Guang caught up with Stephen Orlins, President of US National Committee on US-China Relations and a former diplomat⁷, at the now-concluded China Development Forum⁸.

Q: Chinese authorities announced to launch anti-dumping investigation on chemical raw material phenol of 5 sources including the United States, so do you think it's a sign of escalation⁹ of the trade disputes between the United States and China? Where would it go?

A: Number one, it's an investigation, there's not an imposition of tariffs, so that I think it's just, it's preparing for a possible escalation, I think there's no question, that's possible. Don't forget the announcement that President Trump made is not an imposition of tariffs yet, it is a process which is gonna take 90 days. They're first going to designate what goods are gonna be subject to tariff, then they're going to consult with the business community and the public, then they're going to try and draw conclusions, so the fastest it will happen is in 90 days. You saw today that Secretary Mnuchin, the Secretary of the Treasury¹⁰ of the United States, sent a letter to Liu He. So what's going on is these proposed tariffs are creating a pressure for negotiation¹¹. So I expect to see negotiations¹² going on over the 90 days, I think in the end of 90 days, we'll see, as a former diplomat, I can tell you that deadlines are often extended.

Q: How do you evaluate the trade policies of the Trump administration to China? 

A: If there's an imposition of tariffs on 60 billion dollars of exports to the United States, we'll have to see what the percentages of the tariffs are, and then we'll see what the effect is. So far, the steel and aluminum¹³ tariffs are tiny, they really, China exports virtually no steel and aluminum to the United States, so that really hasn't had a major effect. But certainly, Trump's rhetoric¹⁴ is very harsh.

Q: If there was a trade war, who will be the biggest loser?

A: Well, if it escalates¹⁵ to hundreds of billions of dollars of goods being subject to tariffs, that would then I guess become what you're calling a trade war. I think we have dangers in these kinds of policies. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, prior to the Great Depression, is considered one of the causes of the Great Depression that started in 1929. So, if we're to follow these policies of tariffs, this is gonna affect economic growth worldwide and undermine what is a pretty good global economy today.

Q: Chinese government has warned that if the trade dispute continues, it will harm, jeopardize¹⁶ the relations between the two countries, to what extent do you think these have already done to two countries' relationship?

A: I think so far the relationship has not been severely¹⁷ damaged, even though the rhetoric is harsh, we have not seen an imposition of tariffs on a broad range of goods, but certainly it's disturbing, and if it goes down this path, it will certainly affect the U.S.-China relationship. We have also seen documents which call China a revisionist power, the National Security Strategy in the United States calls China a strategic competitor and a revisionist power, I think those are also damaging the U.S.-China relationship. We've seen the whole policy of engagement being questioned. When I first came to Asia, Asia was at war. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, Asia has not been at war. I think that has been an effect of this constructive¹⁸ engagement policy that the United States and China have both followed. So it deeply troubles me that people seem to be rejecting a policy that has created peace and prosperity in Asia for these many years.

That was Stephen Orlins, President of US National Committee on US-China Relations, speaking with CRI's Yang Guang on the sidelines of China Development Forum.

1 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

2 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

3 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望

4 investigation   

n.调查，调查研究

参考例句：

• In an investigation,a new fact became known, which told against him.在调查中新发现了一件对他不利的事实。
• He drew the conclusion by building on his own investigation.他根据自己的调查研究作出结论。

5 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

6 memorandum   

n.备忘录，便笺

参考例句：

• The memorandum was dated 23 August,2008.备忘录上注明的日期是2008年8月23日。
• The Secretary notes down the date of the meeting in her memorandum book.秘书把会议日期都写在记事本上。

7 diplomat   

n.外交官，外交家；能交际的人，圆滑的人

参考例句：

• The diplomat threw in a joke, and the tension was instantly relieved.那位外交官插进一个笑话，紧张的气氛顿时缓和下来。
• He served as a diplomat in Russia before the war.战前他在俄罗斯当外交官。

8 forum   

n.论坛，讨论会

参考例句：

• They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
• The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。

9 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

10 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

11 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

12 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

13 aluminum   

n.(aluminium)铝

参考例句：

• The aluminum sheets cannot be too much thicker than 0.04 inches.铝板厚度不能超过0.04英寸。
• During the launch phase,it would ride in a protective aluminum shell.在发射阶段，它盛在一只保护的铝壳里。

14 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

15 escalates   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的第三人称单数 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• As the challenge escalates, the need for teamwork elevates. 面临的挑战越大，越需要团队协同合作。 来自互联网
• I cannot understand why a minor disagreement escalates into a fist-fight. 我真不明白为什么一点意见不合就变成了拳头相见。 来自互联网

16 jeopardize   

vt.危及，损害

参考例句：

• Overworking can jeopardize your health.工作过量可能会危及你的健康。
• If you are rude to the boss it may jeopardize your chances of success.如果你对上司无礼，那就可能断送你成功的机会。

17 severely   

adv.严格地；严厉地；非常恶劣地

参考例句：

• He was severely criticized and removed from his post.他受到了严厉的批评并且被撤了职。
• He is severely put down for his careless work.他因工作上的粗心大意而受到了严厉的批评。

18 constructive   

adj.建设的，建设性的

参考例句：

• We welcome constructive criticism.我们乐意接受有建设性的批评。
• He is beginning to deal with his anger in a constructive way.他开始用建设性的方法处理自己的怒气。