经济学人:当机器成为超级智能 人类该如何应对?

 　　Business: Schumpeter: Techno wars

　　商业：熊彼德：“铁克诺” 之战

　　An earlier sunny mood about technology and innovation has given way to pessimism¹.

　　在技术与创新领域，悲观主义取代了先前的乐观态度

　　The most striking battle in modern business pits the techno-optimists against the techno-pessimists².

　　在现代商业中，高新技术乐观派与悲观派构成了激烈对峙的两大阵营。

　　The first group argues that the world is in the middle of a technology-driven renaissance³.

　　乐观主义者声称，世界正处于技术驱动的复兴中。

　　Tech CEOs compete with each other for superlatives.

　　各技术巨头相互竞争，力求推出最优秀的产品。

　　Business professors say that our only problem will be what to do with the people when the machines become super-intelligent.

　　商学院教授则认为，唯一需要担心的是，当机器发展为超级智能，人类该如何应对。

　　The pessimists retort that this is froth: a few firms may be doing wonderfully but the economy is stuck.

　　悲观主义者则反讥道，以上言论不过是高谈弘论：虽然少部分公司的确运行得不错，但经济已陷入停滞。

　　Larry Summers of Harvard University talks about secular⁴ stagnation⁵.

　　哈佛大学的拉里·萨默斯就此提出了“长期停滞”。

　　Tyler Cowen, of George Mason University, says that the American economy has eaten all the low-hanging fruits of modern history and got sick.

　　乔治梅森大学的泰勒·科文认为，美国经济已耗尽现代史上一切唾手可得的成果而趋于病态。

　　Until recently the prize for the most gloom-laden book on the modern economy has gone to Robert Gordon of Northwestern University.

　　唱衰现代经济势的问鼎之作是1月出版的西北大学罗伯特·戈登写的。

　　In “The Rise and Fall of American Growth”, published in January, Mr Gordon argues that the IT revolution is a minor⁶ diversion compared with the inventions that accompanied the second industrial one—electricity, motor cars and aeroplanes— which changed lives profoundly.

　　戈登在《美国兴衰》一书中指出，第二次工业革命中，电力、汽车和飞机都曾给日常生活带来翻天覆地的变化，而IT革命不过是小巫见大巫。

　　The current information upheaval⁷, by contrast, is merely altering a narrow range of activities.

　　近年来，人们获取信息的方式发生了剧变，但也仅仅是让原本就为数不多的方式增添了些新花样。

　　Now a new book, “The Innovation Illusion” by Fredrik Erixon and Bjorn Weigel, presents a still more pessimistic vision.

　　弗雷德里克·埃里克松和比约?恩格尔现发行了他们的新书《创新的假象》，书中表达了更为悲观的看法。

　　Messrs Erixon and Weigel write that the very engine of capitalist growth, the creative destruction described by Joseph Schumpeter, is kaput.

　　他们在书中写道，资本主义发展的“核心引擎”（約瑟夫·熊彼特曾称其为创造性破坏）已运作失常。

　　Aside from a handful of stars such as Google and Amazon, they point out, capitalism⁸ is ageing fast.

　　他们指出，除了如谷歌和亚马逊等少数精英公司仍发展良好，资本主义整体已迅速老化。

　　Europe’s 100 most valuable firms were founded more than 40 years ago.

　　纵观欧洲100家大公司，绝大部分都建立在40年前。

　　Even America, which is more entrepreneurial, is succumbing⁹ to middle-aged¹⁰ spread.

　　即使是更具创业精神的美国也难以抵挡公司中年化现象的蔓延。

　　The proportion of mature firms, or those 11 years old or more, rose from a third of all firms in 1987 to almost half in 2012, and the number of startups fell between 2001 and 2011.

　　从1981到2012年间，资深公司（已建立11年或更长时间）由占公司总数的1/3上升到占一半左右，而2001到2011年间，新公司数量则一直下降。

　　People who extol¹¹ free markets often blame such stagnation on excessive regulation.

　　自由市场的支持者经常把这种经济停滞归咎于政府管制过多。

　　That has certainly played its part.

　　这种说法的确有一定道理。

　　But the authors argue that stagnation has most to do with the structure of capitalism itself.

　　然而，《创新的假象》的作者则认为，这种停滞与资本主义自身的结构有更大关系。

　　Companies are no longer actually owned by adventurous¹² capitalists but by giant institutions such as the Vanguard Group (with more than $3 trillion under management) which constantly buy and sell slivers¹³ of ownership for anonymous¹⁴ investors¹⁵.

　　事实上，公司已不再由具冒险精神的资本家控制，而是由像先锋集团（the Vanguard Group）这种大型机构掌控。该公司资产逾3万亿美元，不断为匿名投资者购买和出售所有权。

　　These institutions are more interested in predictable returns than in enterprise.

　　比起商业发展，他们更看重可预测回报。

　　It is not all Mark Zuckerbergs at the top, the authors posit¹⁶.

　　作者认为并非所有高层都像马克·扎克伯格一样。

　　The big firms are answering the call for predictability by hiring corporate¹⁷ bureaucrats¹⁸.

　　多数大公司都雇佣企业管理者来满足投资者对可预测性的渴求。

　　These people shy away from risky¹⁹ investments in new technology.

　　这些企业管理者往往会避免对新技术进行风险投资。

　　After rising relentlessly²⁰ as a share of GDP in 1950-2000, investment in IT began declining in the early 2000s.

　　在1950到2000年间，IT行业投资曾作为GDP的一部分持续增长，但于2000年早期开始衰退。

　　Instead of shaking up markets, bureaucratic²¹ CEOs focus on squeezing the most out of their sunk costs and fight to defend niches²².

　　比起颠覆市场，官僚型CEO更注重于尽可能压缩沉没成本和捍卫利基市场。

　　They hoard²³ cash, buy back their firms’ shares and reinforce their positions by merging²⁴ with former rivals.

　　他们通过储备现金，回购自家公司股份以及与竞争对手合并来巩固公司的市场地位。

　　The gloomsters’ case is true to some extent but it is overstated.

　　这些悲观人士的言论在一定程度上是对的，但还是言过其实了。

　　1.compete with 与...竞争

　　例句:We ask for a level playing field when we compete with foreign companies.

　　我们寻求一个能与外国公司公平竞争的环境。

　　2.shake up 摇匀；整顿

　　例句:The government wanted to reform the institutions, to shake up the country.

　　政府想要实施机构改革，整顿国家。

　　3.point out 指出

　　例句:Critics point out that the prince, on his income, should be paying tax

　　批评家指出王子的收入应该纳税。

　　4.got sick 生病

　　例句:nd I even stole for you when you got sick.

　　在你生病的时候我甚至还为你偷过东西。

1 pessimism   

n.悲观者，悲观主义者，厌世者

参考例句：

• He displayed his usual pessimism.他流露出惯有的悲观。
• There is the note of pessimism in his writings.他的著作带有悲观色彩。

2 pessimists   

n.悲观主义者( pessimist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Pessimists tell us that the family as we know it is doomed. 悲观主义者告诉我们说，我们现在的这种家庭注定要崩溃。 来自辞典例句
• Experts on the future are divided into pessimists and optimists. 对未来发展进行预测的专家可分为悲观主义者和乐观主义者两类。 来自互联网

3 renaissance   

n.复活，复兴，文艺复兴

参考例句：

• The Renaissance was an epoch of unparalleled cultural achievement.文艺复兴是一个文化上取得空前成就的时代。
• The theme of the conference is renaissance Europe.大会的主题是文艺复兴时期的欧洲。

4 secular   

n.牧师，凡人；adj.世俗的，现世的，不朽的

参考例句：

• We live in an increasingly secular society.我们生活在一个日益非宗教的社会。
• Britain is a plural society in which the secular predominates.英国是个世俗主导的多元社会。

5 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。

6 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。

7 upheaval   

n.胀起，(地壳)的隆起；剧变，动乱

参考例句：

• It was faced with the greatest social upheaval since World War Ⅱ.它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。
• The country has been thrown into an upheaval.这个国家已经陷入动乱之中。

8 capitalism   

n.资本主义

参考例句：

• The essence of his argument is that capitalism cannot succeed.他的论点的核心是资本主义不能成功。
• Capitalism began to develop in Russia in the 19th century.十九世纪资本主义在俄国开始发展。

9 succumbing   

不再抵抗（诱惑、疾病、攻击等）( succumb的现在分词 )； 屈从； 被压垮； 死

参考例句：

• Mrs. Smith washed and ironed clothes for him, succumbing to him. 史密斯太太被他迷住了，愿意为他洗衣烫衣。
• They would not in the end abandon their vital interests by succumbing to Soviet blandishment. 他们最终决不会受苏联人的甜言蜜语的诱惑，从而抛弃自己的切身利益。

10 middle-aged   

adj.中年的

参考例句：

• I noticed two middle-aged passengers.我注意到两个中年乘客。
• The new skin balm was welcome by middle-aged women.这种新护肤香膏受到了中年妇女的欢迎。

11 extol   

v.赞美，颂扬

参考例句：

• We of the younger generation extol the wisdom of the great leader and educator.我们年轻一代崇拜那位伟大的引路人和教育家的智慧。
• Every day I will praise you and extol your name for ever and ever. 我要天天称颂你，也要永永远远赞美你的名。

12 adventurous   

adj.爱冒险的；惊心动魄的，惊险的，刺激的　

参考例句：

• I was filled with envy at their adventurous lifestyle.我很羨慕他们敢于冒险的生活方式。
• He was predestined to lead an adventurous life.他注定要过冒险的生活。

13 slivers   

（切割或断裂下来的）薄长条，碎片( sliver的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Margret had eight slivers of glass removed from her cheek. 从玛格列特的脸颊取出了八片碎玻璃。
• Eight slivers are drawn together to produce the drawn sliver. 在末道并条机上，八根棉条并合在一起被牵伸成熟条。

14 anonymous   

adj.无名的；匿名的；无特色的

参考例句：

• Sending anonymous letters is a cowardly act.寄匿名信是懦夫的行为。
• The author wishes to remain anonymous.作者希望姓名不公开。

15 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

16 posit   

v.假定，认为

参考例句：

• If she needs salvation,she will posit a savior.如果她需要救助，她就会设想一个救助者。
• Other historians posit that she died of old age around 550 BC.别的史学家则认为她一直活到公元前550年左右才寿终正寝。

17 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

18 bureaucrats   

n.官僚( bureaucrat的名词复数 )；官僚主义；官僚主义者；官僚语言

参考例句：

• That is the fate of the bureaucrats, not the inspiration of statesmen. 那是官僚主义者的命运，而不是政治家的灵感。 来自辞典例句
• Big business and dozens of anonymous bureaucrats have as much power as Japan's top elected leaders. 大企业和许多不知名的官僚同日本选举出来的最高层领导者们的权力一样大。 来自辞典例句

19 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

20 relentlessly   

adv.不屈不挠地；残酷地；不间断

参考例句：

• The African sun beat relentlessly down on his aching head. 非洲的太阳无情地照射在他那发痛的头上。
• He pursued her relentlessly, refusing to take 'no' for an answer. 他锲而不舍地追求她，拒不接受“不”的回答。

21 bureaucratic   

adj.官僚的，繁文缛节的

参考例句：

• The sweat of labour washed away his bureaucratic airs.劳动的汗水冲掉了他身上的官气。
• In this company you have to go through complex bureaucratic procedures just to get a new pencil.在这个公司里即使是领一支新铅笔，也必须通过繁琐的手续。

22 niches   

壁龛( niche的名词复数 )； 合适的位置[工作等]； （产品的）商机； 生态位（一个生物所占据的生境的最小单位）

参考例句：

• Some larvae extend the galleries to form niches. 许多幼虫将坑道延伸扩大成壁龛。
• In his view differences in adaptation are insufficient to create niches commensurate in number and kind. 按照他的观点，适应的差异不足以在数量上和种类上形成同量的小生境。

23 hoard   

n./v.窖藏，贮存，囤积

参考例句：

• They have a hoard of food in the basement.地下室里有他们贮藏的食物。
• How many curios do you hoard in your study?你在你书房里聚藏了多少古玩？

24 merging   

合并（分类）

参考例句：

• Many companies continued to grow by merging with or buying competing firms. 许多公司通过合并或收买竞争对手的公司而不断扩大。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
• To sequence by repeated splitting and merging. 用反复分开和合并的方法进行的排序。