经济学人:IT革命已毫无动力?新型经济该何去何从

 　　Mr Gordon is right that the second industrial revolution involved never-to-be-repeated changes.

　　正如戈登所言，第二次工业革命带来的改变无法复制。

　　But that does not mean that driverless cars count for nothing.

　　但这并不意味着无人驾驶车就一文不值。

　　Messrs Erixon and Weigel are also right to worry about the West’s dismal¹ recent record in producing new companies.

　　诚然，埃克里松和恩格尔的担忧也非无稽之谈，西方世界近年在培养新公司方面的确不容乐观。

　　But many old firms are not run by bureaucrats² and have reinvented themselves many times over: General Electric must be on at least its ninth life.

　　但许多老牌公司也非由官僚把控，且已经多次进行自我革新，比如通用电气就至少革新了9次。

　　新型经济该何去何从.png

　　And the impact of giant new firms born in the past 20 years such as Uber, Google and Facebook should not be underestimated: they have all the Schumpeterian characteristics the authors admire.

　　我们同样不应该小瞧那些在过去20年诞生的“新巨头”（如优步、谷歌和脸书）所带来的冲击，因为他们拥有埃克里松和恩格尔所推崇的“熊彼特式”特征。

　　On the pessimists³’ side the strongest argument relies not on closely watching corporate⁴ and investor⁵ behaviour but rather on macro-level statistics on productivity.

　　就“悲观”阵营而言，他们最有力的观点基于生产率的宏观统计数据而非对公司策略和投资者行为的近距离观察。

　　The figures from recent years are truly dismal.

　　而近年的宏观统计数据的确糟糕。

　　Karim Foda, of the Brookings Institution, calculates that labour productivity in the rich world is growing at its slowest rate since 1950.

　　经济分析机构卡里姆·仸达指出，发达国家的劳动生产率正以自1950年以来最低的速率增长。

　　Total factor productivity (which tries to measure innovation) has grown at just 0.1% in advanced economies since 2004, well below its historical average.

　　用来衡量创新能力的总生产率在发达经济体增长仅为0.1%，远低于历史均值。

　　Optimists⁶ have two retorts.

　　而“乐观”阵营也有两个理由来反驳。

　　The first is that there must be something wrong with the figures.

　　首先，这些数据肯定出错了。

　　One possibility is that they fail to count the huge consumer surplus given away free of charge on the internet.

　　原因可能是互联网低廉甚至免费的服务导致了严重的消费者过剩，这部分并未计算在内。

　　But this is unconvincing.

　　然而，这难以令人信服。

　　The official figures may well be understating the impact of the internet revolution, just as they downplayed the impact of electricity and cars in the past, but they are not understating it enough to explain the recent decline in productivity growth.

　　因为官方数据可能像以前看轻汽车和电力一样，淡化了互联网革命的影响。但这种“轻描淡写”也未严重到足以给生产率增长的近期下降作借口。

　　Another, second line of argument—that the productivity revolution has only just begun—is more persuasive⁷.

　　乐观阵营有另一个更令人信服的观点——生产率革命还在萌芽阶段呢。

　　Over the past decade many IT companiesmay have focused on things that were more “fun than fundamental” in Paul Krugman’s phrase.

　　过去数十年，许多IT公司可能都只专注于那些保罗·克鲁格曼称为“娱乐性大于实用性”的东西。

　　But Silicon⁸ Valley’s best companies are certainly focusing on things that change the material world.

　　然而，硅谷的顶尖公司正专注于如何能给世界带来实际的变化。

　　Uberand Airbnb are bringing dramatic improvements to two large industries that have been more or less stuck for decades.

　　运输业与酒店业在过去数十年多少陷入了停滞，而优步和空中食宿正给它们带来翻天覆地的变化。

　　Morgan Stanley estimates that driverless cars could result in $507 billion a year of productivity gains in America, mainly from people being able to stare at their laptops instead of at the road.

　　摩根士·坦利估计，在美国，无人驾驶汽车一年能带来5，070亿美元的收益，主要用户是那些把更多精力放在电脑上，而不是路上的人。

　　The real question is not whether the IT revolution has run out of steam or whether creative destruction is grinding to a halt.

　　所以真正的问题并非是IT革命是否已毫无动力，或是创造性破坏是否已陷入停滞。

　　In fact, the IT revolution is probably gathering⁹ pace and Google and Amazon are two of the most innovative¹⁰ firms to emerge in the past 50 years.

　　事实上，IT革命可能正蓄势待发，正如谷歌和亚马逊乃过去50年来最具创新性的公司。

　　Rather it is whether the new economy can counteract¹¹ the forces ranged against it: ageing populations; a political class responding to populism by restricting trade and by over-regulating business; and education systems that in many places are failing.

　　人口老龄化，政治阶层采取限制贸易与过度约束公司来应对民粹主义，许多地区的教育系统崩坏，新型经济该如何应对这些影响才是真正的问题。

　　The big danger is that, while optimists and pessimists battle it out, the world becomes ever more divided between islands of high productivity surrounded by a vast ocean of stagnation¹².

　　真正危险的是，当两大阵营酣战正烈时，世界却已变得更加四分五裂——一望无际的“停滞之海”包围着硕果仅存的高生产率岛屿。

　　1.industrial revolution 工业革命

　　例句:The industrial revolution modified the whole structure of English society.

　　工业革命改变了整个英国社会的结构。

　　2.run out of 用完；耗尽

　　例句:They have run out of ideas.

　　他们已经想不出任何办法了。

　　3.focused on 专注于

　　例句:Every eye at the conference was focused on the rostrum.

　　代表们的眼光都集注在大会主席台上。

　　4.give away 放弃；泄露

　　例句:He was giving his collection away for nothing

　　他将收藏品无偿捐献出来。

1 dismal   

adj.阴沉的，凄凉的，令人忧郁的，差劲的

参考例句：

• That is a rather dismal melody.那是一支相当忧郁的歌曲。
• My prospects of returning to a suitable job are dismal.我重新找到一个合适的工作岗位的希望很渺茫。

2 bureaucrats   

n.官僚( bureaucrat的名词复数 )；官僚主义；官僚主义者；官僚语言

参考例句：

• That is the fate of the bureaucrats, not the inspiration of statesmen. 那是官僚主义者的命运，而不是政治家的灵感。 来自辞典例句
• Big business and dozens of anonymous bureaucrats have as much power as Japan's top elected leaders. 大企业和许多不知名的官僚同日本选举出来的最高层领导者们的权力一样大。 来自辞典例句

3 pessimists   

n.悲观主义者( pessimist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Pessimists tell us that the family as we know it is doomed. 悲观主义者告诉我们说，我们现在的这种家庭注定要崩溃。 来自辞典例句
• Experts on the future are divided into pessimists and optimists. 对未来发展进行预测的专家可分为悲观主义者和乐观主义者两类。 来自互联网

4 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

5 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

6 optimists   

n.乐观主义者( optimist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Even optimists admit the outlook to be poor. 甚至乐观的人都认为前景不好。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Optimists reckon house prices will move up with inflation this year. 乐观人士认为今年的房价将会随通货膨胀而上涨。 来自辞典例句

7 persuasive   

adj.有说服力的，能说得使人相信的

参考例句：

• His arguments in favour of a new school are very persuasive.他赞成办一座新学校的理由很有说服力。
• The evidence was not really persuasive enough.证据并不是太有说服力。

8 silicon   

n.硅(旧名矽)

参考例句：

• This company pioneered the use of silicon chip.这家公司开创了使用硅片的方法。
• A chip is a piece of silicon about the size of a postage stamp.芯片就是一枚邮票大小的硅片。

9 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

10 innovative   

adj.革新的，新颖的，富有革新精神的

参考例句：

• Discover an innovative way of marketing.发现一个创新的营销方式。
• He was one of the most creative and innovative engineers of his generation.他是他那代人当中最富创造性与革新精神的工程师之一。

11 counteract   

vt.对…起反作用，对抗，抵消

参考例句：

• The doctor gave him some medicine to counteract the effect of the poison.医生给他些药解毒。
• Our work calls for mutual support.We shouldn't counteract each other's efforts.工作要互相支持，不要互相拆台。

12 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。