经济学人:川普当选总统 国际经济出现的乱象(中)

 　　The larger budget deficits² entailed³ by tax reform, along with more public spending on infrastructure⁴, would underpin⁵ yields on long-term Treasury⁶ bonds.

　　因税收改革而造成的更大的预算赤字，连同更多的基础设施公共开支一起，会支撑起长期国债的收益。

　　Indeed, after falling in the initial aftermath of Mr Trump⁷'s victory, yields on 10- and 30-year Treasuries⁸ are on the rise again.

　　实际上，在特朗普获胜后的最初下跌过后，10年期和30年期的国债收益再启升势。

　　Add the potential for higher inflation from the stimulus⁹ and the likelier use of some protectionist tariffs¹⁰, plus a Federal Reserve with a more hawkish¹¹ tilt¹², as Mr Trump's appointees alter the complexion¹³ of its interest-rate-setting committee, and you have the makings of a renewed dollar rally.

　　算上来自刺激的更高通胀的可能性以及某些保护主义关税的可能的运用，以及因为特朗普的任命对其议息委员会局面的改变而造成的一个更具鹰派倾向的美联储，新一轮美元牛市形成的各种条件就全都具备了。

　　A fiscal¹⁴ stimulus coupled with an investment splurge in the world's largest economy should, all else equal, also be good for global aggregate¹⁵ demand.

　　在其他条件都相等的情况下，伴随着投资猛增的世界第二大经济体的财政刺激也应该有利于全球总需求。

　　And if this kind of “reflation populism” improves the near-term prospects¹⁶ for America's economy, it may dissuade¹⁷ Mr Trump from resorting to full-strength “anti-trade populism”. Well, perhaps.

　　同时，倘若这种“再通胀民粹主义”能让美国经济的近期前景有所改善，就有可能阻止特朗普诉诸倾尽全力的“反贸易民粹主义”。或许吧。

　　But given his leanings, it is easy to imagine him resorting to soft protectionism that keeps much of the additional demand within America's borders.

　　但是，考虑到他的倾向，特朗普诉诸于将大部分额外需求留在美国国内的软性保护主义是很容易就能想到的。

　　He might for instance lean on companies to favour domestic suppliers, or attach local-content conditions to publicly funded infrastructure projects.

　　例如，他可能依靠公司去眷顾国内供应商，或者是把本地内容条件附加给公共资助的基础设施项目。

　　What is more, the repatriation¹⁸ of profits by American firms would draw resources away from their subsidiaries abroad.

　　更为重要的是，美国企业的利润回流会将各种资源抽离它们的海外分公司。

　　In 1971 the world feared dollar weakness.

　　1971年，世界对美元的弱势忧心忡忡。

　　These days, dollar strength tends to have a tightening¹⁹ effect on global financial conditions.

　　如今，美元的强势往往会给全球金融环境造成一种收紧效应。

　　The waxing and waning²⁰ of the dollar is strongly linked to the ups and downs of the credit cycle.

　　美元的涨跌已经与信贷周期的起伏紧密地联系在一起。

　　When the dollar is weak and American interest rates are low, companies outside America are keen to borrow dollars.

　　当美元疲软、美国利率处于低位时，美国之外的公司热衷于借入美元。

　　Often big firms, flush with such cheap loans, will further extend credit in local currencies to smaller ones.

　　这类廉价贷款充裕的大公司经常会进一步将用当地货币计算的信贷扩展至较小的公司。

　　But when the dollar goes up, the cycle goes into reverse, as corporate²¹ borrowers outside America scramble²² to pay down their dollar debts.

　　但是，当美元上涨时，由于美国之外的企业举债者急于偿还美元债务，信贷周期反转。

　　That causes a more general tightening of credit.

　　造成一种更加整体的信贷收紧。

　　Mexico has the most to lose from Mr Trump's presidency²³, should he keep his campaign promises.

　　如果特朗普信守竞选承诺，墨西哥将是他总统任期的最大输家。

　　So the peso plummeted²⁴ in the wake of the result.

　　因而，墨西哥比索在结果出来后大幅跳水。

　　But Mexico, along with Chile, Turkey, the Philippines and Russia, also has a large burden of dollar debts, which are becoming more expensive in local currency.

　　但是，墨西哥，与智利、土耳其、菲律宾和俄罗斯一起，也背负着沉重的美元债务。这些债务，用当地货币来计算的话，正在变得越来越昂贵。

　　Mr Trump's protectionist bent²⁵ may make it hard for emerging markets to trade their way out of trouble.

　　特朗普的保护主义倾向可能让新兴市场很难走出困境。

　　Only a few are likely to be unharmed by his victory.

　　只有少数几个国家可能不受他的胜利的危害。

　　Where does a Trump victory leave China, the world's second-largest economy?

　　特朗普的胜利会把世界第二大经济体中国置于何种境地呢？

　　China accounts for roughly a half of America's net trade-deficit¹, so in Mr Trump's zero-sum reckoning, it has a lot to lose should America launch an all-out trade war.

　　中国大约占美国贸易净赤字的一半，因此，在特朗普的零和思维中，如果发起一场贸易战，美国将损失惨重。

　　In fact, the resulting disruption to global supply-chains would badly hurt American firms, and higher prices on imported goods would squeeze American consumers, especially poorer households, which spend proportionately more on them.

　　实际上，由此而导致的对于全球供应链的破坏会严重伤害美国企业，同时越来越高的进口商品价格也

　　1.budget deficit 预算赤字

　　例句:They're ready to cut the federal budget deficit for the next fiscal year.

　　他们已准备好削减下一财年的联邦预算赤字。

　　2.accounts for 占...比例

　　例句:The brain accounts for merely three per cent of body weight.

　　大脑仅占体重的3%。

　　3.trade-deficit 贸易赤字

　　例句:Trade-deficit countries did not co-operate, with the result that international trade all but collapsed²⁶.

　　贸易逆差国家没有与之合作，其结果是国际贸易近乎崩溃。

　　4.pay down 当场付款；现金支付

　　例句:I used it to pay down some credit cards.

　　我用来付信用卡帐了。

1 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

2 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

3 entailed   

使…成为必要( entail的过去式和过去分词 )； 需要； 限定继承； 使必需

参考例句：

• The castle and the land are entailed on the eldest son. 城堡和土地限定由长子继承。
• The house and estate are entailed on the eldest daughter. 这所房子和地产限定由长女继承。

4 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

5 underpin   

v.加固，支撑

参考例句：

• China needs regional stability to underpin its continued economic growth.中国需要地区稳定来巩固其持续的经济增长。
• These developments are underpinned by solid progress in heavy industry.重工业的稳固发展为这些进展打下了基础。

6 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

7 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

8 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

9 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

10 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

11 hawkish   

adj. 鹰派的, 强硬派的

参考例句：

• My staff's advice that first day was amazingly hawkish. 在第一天，我的僚属们的意见是令人吃惊的鹰派意见。
• Antiwar groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish Cabinet. 反战团体担心巴拉克·奥巴马可以创建强硬派内阁。

12 tilt   

v.(使)倾侧；(使)倾斜；n.倾侧；倾斜

参考例句：

• She wore her hat at a tilt over her left eye.她歪戴着帽子遮住左眼。
• The table is at a slight tilt.这张桌子没放平，有点儿歪.

13 complexion   

n.肤色；情况，局面；气质，性格

参考例句：

• Red does not suit with her complexion.红色与她的肤色不协调。
• Her resignation puts a different complexion on things.她一辞职局面就全变了。

14 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

15 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。

16 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

17 dissuade   

v.劝阻，阻止

参考例句：

• You'd better dissuade him from doing that.你最好劝阻他别那样干。
• I tried to dissuade her from investing her money in stocks and shares.我曾设法劝她不要投资于股票交易。

18 repatriation   

n.遣送回国，归国

参考例句：

• The Volrep programme is the preferred means of repatriation. 政府认为自愿遣返计划的遣返方法较为可取。 来自互联网
• Arrange the cargo claiming and maritime affairs,crews repatriation,medical treatment,traveling so on. （六）洽办货物理赔，船舶海事处理，办理船员遣返，就医，旅游等。 来自互联网

19 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

20 waning   

adj.（月亮）渐亏的，逐渐减弱或变小的n.月亏v.衰落( wane的现在分词 )；（月）亏；变小；变暗淡

参考例句：

• Her enthusiasm for the whole idea was waning rapidly. 她对整个想法的热情迅速冷淡了下来。
• The day is waning and the road is ending. 日暮途穷。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

21 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

22 scramble   

v.爬行，攀爬，杂乱蔓延，碎片，片段，废料

参考例句：

• He broke his leg in his scramble down the wall.他爬墙摔断了腿。
• It was a long scramble to the top of the hill.到山顶须要爬登一段长路。

23 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

24 plummeted   

v.垂直落下，骤然跌落( plummet的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Share prices plummeted to an all-time low. 股票价格暴跌到历史最低点。
• A plane plummeted to earth. 一架飞机一头栽向地面。 来自《简明英汉词典》

25 bent   

n.爱好，癖好；adj.弯的；决心的，一心的

参考例句：

• He was fully bent upon the project.他一心扑在这项计划上。
• We bent over backward to help them.我们尽了最大努力帮助他们。

26 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。