经济学人:川普当选总统 国际经济出现的乱象(下)

 　　Yet there are risks to China's economy too, from even a milder form of Trumpian populism.

　　然而，对于中国经济来说，也存在着来自一种较为温和形式的特朗普式民粹主义的风险。

　　The dollar's weakness over the spring and summer helped stem the outflow of capital from China that had threatened to unmoor the yuan and so unsettled global financial markets at the turn of the year.

　　美元在春夏两季中的弱势曾对阻止早在年初就已威胁要解缆人民币、进而一度令全球金融市场动荡不安的资本从中国的外流起到帮助作用。

　　A sustained dollar rally would thus mean a severe headache for China's policymakers, as it would revive the pressure on its capital account.

　　因而，对中国决策者来说，持续的美元升势是一件很令人头疼的事情，因为这种升势会复活对其资本账户的压力。

　　They might then face an unpalatable choice: let the yuan sink against the dollar or keep domestic monetary¹ policy tighter to support it.

　　这样，他们就可能面临一种难以接受的选择：要么放任人民币对美元下跌，要么在国内维持从紧的货币政策以支撑人民币。

　　China is safe from the biggest indirect effect of Mr Trump's victory: the boost it gives other populist politicians.

　　至于特朗普胜利的最大的非直接影响——这种胜利给予其他民粹主义政客的提振，中国是安全的。

　　Europe is far more vulnerable.

　　欧洲就要脆弱的多得多了。

　　Britain's vote in June to leave the European Union was one early ballot-box reflection of anti-establishment sentiment.

　　6月的英国脱欧投票是反对现有体制情绪的一种早期的票箱反映。

　　Since then, insurgent² political parties in France, Germany, Italy and elsewhere have called for referendums on membership.

　　自那以后，法国、德国、意大利以及其他国家的造反政党就在呼吁就欧盟成员国资格进行公投。

　　Such parties typically favour trade barriers and limits on immigration, and are gaining in popularity.

　　这类政党一般都对贸易壁垒和移民限制青睐有加，而且正在积聚人气。

　　The euro area's economy has been faring better in recent years, but the single currency remains³ fragile.

　　近年来，欧元区的经济一直都在较好地前行。但是，单一货币仍然脆弱不堪。

　　The kind of cross-border risk-sharing needed to put the euro on a sound footing is at odds⁴ with the rising tides of nationalism and populism.

　　为将欧元置于一种坚实基础之上所必需的跨境风险共担与日渐高涨的民族主义和民粹主义浪潮势如水火。

　　An immediate⁵ hurdle⁶ is Italy's referendum on constitutional reform on December 4th.

　　一个即将到来的障碍是12月4日的意大利宪法改革公投。

　　A defeat would weaken Matteo Renzi, the reformist prime minister, and embolden⁷ the populist Five Star Movement, which favours ditching the euro.

　　失败会削弱该国的改革派总理马泰奥·伦齐，让倾向于放弃欧元的民粹主义五星运动更加肆无忌惮。

　　Around 14% of the euro area's goods exports go to America, quite a bit less than China's 18%.

　　大约14%的欧元区商品出口到美国，比中国的18%少一点。

　　But America accounts for about 40% of the currency zone's recent export growth, according to economists⁸ at HSBC, a bank.

　　但是，据汇丰银行经济学家，美国大约占该货币区近来出口增长的40%。

　　So American protectionism is arguably a bigger threat to Europe than to China.

　　因此，美国的保护主义可以说是一种对欧洲比对中国更大的威胁。

　　The whole world has much to fear from Mr Trump's threats to tear up trade agreements and impose punitive⁹ tariffs¹⁰ on imports.

　　整个世界都对来自特朗普撕毁贸易协议并对进口施加惩罚性关税的威胁深感忧虑。

　　And even if he refrains from starting a trade war, the loose-tongued, fact-lite style he cultivated during the campaign could wreak¹¹ serious damage when he is president.

　　同时，即便他在开启贸易战上做出退让，他在选战期间养成的口无遮拦、罔顾事实的风格也可能在他总统任上造成严重的破坏。

　　His hyperbolic threats now carry the weight of the American presidency¹².

　　如今，他的夸大其词的威胁具有美国总统的分量。

　　His victory was enough to chill some financial markets; what he might do with it could spark full-scale panic.

　　他的胜利足以让一些金融市场感到寒心；他可能以之而做出的行为可能激起全面的恐慌。

　　Even short of that, like the Brexit vote, it marks an alarming step away from a liberal, open economic order towards more isolationism and less prosperity.

　　纵然没有造成恐慌，就像英国脱欧那样，这也标志着令人担忧的远离自由开放的经济秩序、走向更多的孤立主义和较少的繁荣的一步。

　　1.financial markets 金融市场

　　例句:The financial markets have given the thumbs up to the new policy.

　　金融市场已经接受了新政策。

　　2.trade war 贸易战

　　例句:If the Europeans did not reduce subsidies¹³, a trade war would ensue.

　　如果欧洲人不减少补贴，便会发生贸易战。

　　3.tear up 撕毁

　　例句:When this happens, they will tear up the contract.

　　如果这事发生，他们将会违约。

　　4.full-scale 全面的

　　例句:This weekend's fighting is threatening to burst into full-scale war.

　　本周末的冲突有升级成全面战争的危险。

1 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

2 insurgent   

adj.叛乱的，起事的；n.叛乱分子

参考例句：

• Faruk says they are threatened both by insurgent and government forces.法鲁克说，他们受到暴乱分子和政府军队的双重威胁。
• The insurgent mob assembled at the gate of the city park.叛变的暴徒聚在市立公园的门口。

3 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

4 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

5 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

6 hurdle   

n.跳栏，栏架；障碍，困难；vi.进行跨栏赛

参考例句：

• The weather will be the biggest hurdle so I have to be ready.天气将会是最大的障碍，所以我必须要作好准备。
• She clocked 11.6 seconds for the 80 metre hurdle.八十米跳栏赛跑她跑了十一秒六。

7 embolden   

v.给…壮胆，鼓励

参考例句：

• Emboldened by the wine,he went over to introduce himself to her.他借酒壮胆，走上前去向她作自我介绍。
• The Prime Minister was steadily emboldened by the discovery that he faced no opposition.发现自己并未遭到反对，首相渐渐有了信心。

8 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 punitive   

adj.惩罚的，刑罚的

参考例句：

• They took punitive measures against the whole gang.他们对整帮人采取惩罚性措施。
• The punitive tariff was imposed to discourage tire imports from China.该惩罚性关税的征收是用以限制中国轮胎进口的措施。

10 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

11 wreak   

v.发泄；报复

参考例句：

• She had a burning desire to wreak revenge.她复仇心切。
• Timid people always wreak their peevishness on the gentle.怯懦的人总是把满腹牢骚向温和的人发泄。

12 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

13 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》