经济学人:中国债券市场定价风险(上)

 　　Finance and economics: China's bond market Pricing risk

　　财经：中国债券市场定价风险

　　Debt issuance booms despite a wave of defaults.

　　尽管债务违约浪潮汹涌，发债量仍旧激增。

　　China's domestic bond market has never been riskier¹.

　　中国国内债券市场的风险从未像现在这样如此之高。

　　It was only last year that it suffered its first default.

　　就在去年，中国国内债市出现首例违约事件。

　　中国债券市场1.jpg

　　This year at least six companies have defaulted.

　　今年则至少有六家企业还不起债。

　　The miscreants² are a diverse lot, including a beverage³ bottler, a solar-panel maker⁴ and a cement company.

　　债务违约企业跨各行各业，其中包括饮料装瓶商、太阳能电池板制造商和水泥公司。

　　As economic growth grinds lower, defaults will inevitably⁵ rise.

　　随着经济增长逐步放缓，违约增加的情况在所难免。

　　A gloomy outlook of this kind would normally lead investors⁶ to demand a premium⁷ before buying bonds.

　　一般而言，如此惨淡前景将促使投资者在购买债券之前要求获得风险溢价。

　　Instead, they have lapped them up, making it cheaper for China's companies to borrow.

　　然而，现实正好与之相反。他们欣然接受了债市现状，这使得中国企业的融资贷款成本相对降低。

　　Bond issuance has boomed this year, reaching almost 12 trillion yuan ($1.9 trillion) so far, up from the record 7.7 trillion sold in all of 2014, according to Wind Information, a data provider.

　　根据数据咨询企业Wind资讯，今年的债券发行量大幅度增长：2014年全年债券售额已创纪录达7.7万亿元，而目前规模已高达12万亿元(1.9万亿美元)。

　　This has prompted warnings that, much like the stock market earlier this year, China's bond market is swelling⁸ into a bubble.

　　这一现象不禁令人回想起“前车之鉴”：与今年早期的股市一样，中国债券市场正逐渐膨胀成一团巨大泡沫。

　　Banks accounted for almost all lending in China until a decade ago.

　　直至十年前，中国国内所有贷款几乎都由银行一家独揽发放。

　　Today, for every five yuan of loans companies take out, they also finance themselves with one yuan of bonds.

　　如今，在企业所融资取得的贷款中，每五元就有一元被企业用于发放债券。

　　That has made China the world's third-biggest bond market, behind America and Japan—a development that should help shield the economy from the expensive busts⁹ to which banks are prone¹⁰.

　　这使得中国跻身为全球第三大债券市场，仅次于美国和日本。同时，债券市场的发展亦发挥着积极作用——保护中国经济免于遭受银行破产的高昂代价。

　　At the moment, though, the bond market seems to be stoking risk.

　　尽管如此，目前债券市场的入市风险似乎正逐步攀升。

　　For most of the past five years, yields on highly rated corporate¹¹ bonds were two or three percentage points higher than on government bonds of the same maturity¹².

　　五年来，评级较高的公司债券收益与政府债券同期相比，前者在大部分时间里高出后者两到三个百分点。

　　This year the spread has narrowed, hitting a low in early November of just 1.3 percentage points.

　　今年这一收益差幅逐步缩小，11月初时降至新低，仅为1.3%。

　　This implies that investors think corporate bonds have become less risky¹³, despite the proliferation of defaults.

　　这表明尽管债务违约的现象愈发盛行，投资者认为企业债券的风险相对有所降低。

　　Look at individual bonds, and signs of excess are even more obvious.

　　将目光转向公司债券，我们会发现过度“购债”的现象甚是明显。

　　Vanke is China's biggest listed property developer and, by most accounts, a well-managed company.

　　万科系中国最大的房地产开发商，同时亦被盛誉为管理完善的上市企业。

　　1.bond market 债券市场

　　例句:The PBC shall be in charge of supervising the issuance and trading of subordinated bonds in inter-bank bond market.

　　中国人民银行对次级债券在银行间债券市场的发行和交易进行监督管理。

　　2.well-managed 管理有方的

　　例句:A well-managed eurozone is one in which growth is sustained and adjustment promoted.

　　运转良好的欧元区是指经济增长持续和积极推动调整。

　　3.lap up 欣然接受

　　例句:Their audience will lap up whatever they throw at them.

　　不管是什么节目，他们的观众都照单全收。

　　4.take out 取出

　　例句:I got an abscess so he took the tooth out.

　　我牙龈脓肿，所以他就把那颗牙拔掉了。

1 riskier   

冒险的，危险的( risky的比较级 )

参考例句：

• Now they are starting to demand higher returns on riskier assets. 而今他们开始在风险更高的资产上要求更高的回报。
• The problem with that: RIM's business is getting riskier every quarter. 不过问题也随之而来：RIM面临的业务风险正逐季增大。

2 miscreants   

n.恶棍，歹徒( miscreant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• I ordered the miscreants to let me out. 我命令这些土匪放我出去。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Local people demanded that the District Magistrate apprehend the miscreants. 当地人要求地方法官逮捕那些歹徒。 来自辞典例句

3 beverage   

n.(水，酒等之外的)饮料

参考例句：

• The beverage is often colored with caramel.这种饮料常用焦糖染色。
• Beer is a beverage of the remotest time.啤酒是一种最古老的饮料。

4 maker   

n.制造者，制造商

参考例句：

• He is a trouble maker，You must be distant with him.他是个捣蛋鬼，你不要跟他在一起。
• A cabinet maker must be a master craftsman.家具木工必须是技艺高超的手艺人。

5 inevitably   

adv.不可避免地；必然发生地

参考例句：

• In the way you go on,you are inevitably coming apart.照你们这样下去，毫无疑问是会散伙的。
• Technological changes will inevitably lead to unemployment.技术变革必然会导致失业。

6 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

7 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

8 swelling   

n.肿胀

参考例句：

• Use ice to reduce the swelling. 用冰敷消肿。
• There is a marked swelling of the lymph nodes. 淋巴结处有明显的肿块。

9 busts   

半身雕塑像( bust的名词复数 )； 妇女的胸部； 胸围； 突击搜捕

参考例句：

• Dey bags swells up and busts. 那奶袋快胀破了。
• Marble busts all looked like a cemetery. 大理石的半身象，简直就象是坟山。

10 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

11 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

12 maturity   

n.成熟；完成；(支票、债券等)到期

参考例句：

• These plants ought to reach maturity after five years.这些植物五年后就该长成了。
• This is the period at which the body attains maturity.这是身体发育成熟的时期。

13 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。