经济学人:中国债券市场定价风险(下)

 　　But the Chinese property business is going through a painful retrenchment¹ after years of overbuilding, which suggests Vanke's bonds are not without their risks.

　　然而，中国房地产行业在历经多年的过热发展后，正艰难度过寒冬期。从这一点能够看出，万科发行的债券也并非毫无风险。

　　Yet in late September they were treated as just as safe as official issuers.

　　可就在9月末，业界认为万科企业债券的风险简直可与政府的相比肩。

　　Vanke sold five-year bonds at a yield of 3.5%, the same as the bonds of some provincial² governments at the time.

　　与同期省政府债券的收益率相同，万科以收益率为3.5%的五年期债券发售市场。

　　中国债券市场2.jpg

　　Despite these ominous³ portents⁴, many Chinese bond analysts⁵ take a sanguine⁶ view.

　　尽管存在这些不祥之兆，中国国内许多债券分析师对此持乐观态度。

　　The increase in issuance has been exaggerated by a debt swap⁷: local governments are on track this year to replace about 3 trillion yuan of expensive loans with cheaper bonds.

　　某种程度上，债务互换夸大了债券发行的增量：今年，地方政府正用3万亿元的高额贷款来换取更为廉价的债券。

　　The average interest rate paid on outstanding debt in China has fallen from nearly 7% last year to just over 6% this year, according to Hua Chuang Securities, making it easier for borrowers to keep up with payments.

　　据华创证券统计显示，中国未偿债务的平均支付利率已从去年近7%跌至为今年6%，这使得借款人还债的负担更为轻松。

　　Besides, with growth sluggish⁸, the central bank will probably keep interest rates low.

　　除此之外，随着经济增长放缓，中国人民银行可能会维持低利率政策不变。

　　Shi Lei, head of fixed-income research at Ping An Securities, expects yields to come down by as much as half a percentage point over the next year.

　　石磊是平安证券固定收益调研部的负责人。他预计明年的收益将会下降0.5%。

　　Spreads between interest rates on corporate⁹ bonds and government ones are also starting to widen again.

　　同时，公司债券和政府债券两者利率的差幅也将再次扩大。

　　Their compression had been spurred by the stock market crash in July, when much of the money that fled stocks ended up in bonds of all ratings.

　　两者的利率差在此前6月份股市崩盘中逐步缩小——当时（投资者）将资金抽离股市，再度投放于各级债券市场。

　　Chen Kang of SWS Research believes that now the stock market has rebounded¹⁰, investors¹¹ are starting to differentiate¹² again between private and government-backed issuers.

　　陈康系上海申银万国证券研究所的一名分析师，他认为如今股市已经回升，投资者也开始再次区分私人和政府担保的债券发行方。

　　Whether those government-backed issuers deserve their low yields is another question.

　　有政府作担保的债券发行人是否就应获得低收益则是另一问题。

　　The handful of defaults to date shows that China is willing to let some companies fail, but so far no big firms in which the central government retains a sizeable shareholding¹³ have met that fate.

　　目前为止，中国国内仅发生了几件债务违约事件，这表明中国当局愿意牺牲掉一些企业的利益。至于那些中央政府持有相当股份的大企业，迄今未有一家遭遇关门闭业的命运。

　　Instead, those that have got into trouble have been rescued, leading investors to treat their bonds as virtually risk-free.

　　反而，这些陷入困境的大企业还得到救助，这使得投资者认为其债券是完全“零风险”。

　　SinoSteel, a struggling miner and steel trader, is the latest test of this implicit¹⁴ guarantee.

　　苦苦挣扎的中钢集团是一家采矿和钢铁交易公司，是对隐性担保的最新测试。

　　It had been due to repay bondholders some 2 billion yuan in October, but pushed the date back to December 16th.

　　该企业本应于10月份以20亿元还清债券债务，但债务清偿届满期却被推迟到12月16日。

　　A default would shake investors' faith in government-backed bonds—bringing some sobriety to a market that sorely needs it.

　　债务违约将会动摇投资者对政府担保债券的投资信心——不过这也给市场带来了亟需且非常必要的冷静。

　　1.going through 熬过；仔细检查

　　例句:He was going through a very difficult time.

　　他正处于非常艰难的时期。

　　2.push back 向后推；退回

　　例句:Through you we push back our enemies; through your name we trample¹⁵ our foes¹⁶.

　　我们靠你要推倒我们的敌人。靠你的名要践踏那起来攻击我们的人。

　　3.the stock market 股市

　　例句:The company's shares promptly¹⁷ fell by 300 lire on the stock market.

　　该公司在股市上的股价迅即跌了300里拉。

　　4.the central bank 中央银行

　　例句:The central bank will provide special loans, and the banks will pledge the land as security.

　　中央银行会提供特殊贷款，而这些银行会以土地作为抵押。

1 retrenchment   

n.节省，删除

参考例句：

• Retrenchment will be necessary. 有必要进行紧缩。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Defense planners predict an extended period of retrenchment. 国防规划人员预计开支紧缩期会延长。 来自辞典例句

2 provincial   

adj.省的，地方的；n．外省人，乡下人

参考例句：

• City dwellers think country folk have provincial attitudes.城里人以为乡下人思想迂腐。
• Two leading cadres came down from the provincial capital yesterday.昨天从省里下来了两位领导干部。

3 ominous   

adj.不祥的，不吉的，预兆的，预示的

参考例句：

• Those black clouds look ominous for our picnic.那些乌云对我们的野餐来说是个不祥之兆。
• There was an ominous silence at the other end of the phone.电话那头出现了不祥的沉默。

4 portents   

n.预兆( portent的名词复数 )；征兆；怪事；奇物

参考例句：

• But even with this extra support, labour-market portents still look grim. 但是即使采取了额外支持措施，劳动力市场依然阴霾密布。 来自互联网
• So the hiccups are worth noting as portents. 因此这些问题作为不好的征兆而值得关注。 来自互联网

5 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

6 sanguine   

adj.充满希望的，乐观的，血红色的

参考例句：

• He has a sanguine attitude to life.他对于人生有乐观的看法。
• He is not very sanguine about our chances of success.他对我们成功的机会不太乐观。

7 swap   

n.交换；vt.交换，用...作交易

参考例句：

• I will swap you my bicycle for your radio.我想拿我的自行车换你的收音机。
• This comic was a swap that I got from Nick.这本漫画书是我从尼克那里换来的。

8 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

9 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

10 rebounded   

弹回( rebound的过去式和过去分词 )； 反弹； 产生反作用； 未能奏效

参考例句：

• The ball rebounded from the goalpost and Owen headed it in. 球从门柱弹回，欧文头球将球攻进。
• The ball rebounded from his racket into the net. 球从他的球拍上弹回网中。

11 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

12 differentiate   

vi.(between)区分；vt.区别；使不同

参考例句：

• You can differentiate between the houses by the shape of their chimneys.你可以凭借烟囱形状的不同来区分这两幢房子。
• He never learned to differentiate between good and evil.他从未学会分辨善恶。

13 shareholding   

n.股权

参考例句：

• Shareholding commercial banks must exercise an independent system of board of directors. 股份制商业银行必须实行独立董事制度。 来自互联网
• Asset re-structuring: to conduct shareholding reform for high quality assets. 资产重组：对优质资产进行股份制改造。 来自互联网

14 implicit   

a.暗示的，含蓄的，不明晰的，绝对的

参考例句：

• A soldier must give implicit obedience to his officers. 士兵必须绝对服从他的长官。
• Her silence gave implicit consent. 她的沉默表示默许。

15 trample   

vt.踩，践踏；无视，伤害，侵犯

参考例句：

• Don't trample on the grass. 勿踏草地。
• Don't trample on the flowers when you play in the garden. 在花园里玩耍时,不要踩坏花。

16 foes   

敌人，仇敌( foe的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They steadily pushed their foes before them. 他们不停地追击敌人。
• She had fought many battles, vanquished many foes. 她身经百战，挫败过很多对手。

17 promptly   

adv.及时地，敏捷地

参考例句：

• He paid the money back promptly.他立即还了钱。
• She promptly seized the opportunity his absence gave her.她立即抓住了因他不在场给她创造的机会。