经济学人266:英国将面临下一轮衰退

 　　The economy Autumn leaves falling

　　经济秋叶落了

　　The growing troubles in the euro zone mean Britain is set for another recession

　　日益严重的欧元区危机，意味着英国将要面临下一轮衰退

　　PREPARE for some bad news. The prime minister, David Cameron, told an audience of business leaders on November 21st that shrinking the budget deficit¹ was “proving harder than anyone envisaged².” His comments laid the ground for the chancellor³, George Osborne, who makes his autumn statement on the economy and public finances on November 29th. The chancellor’s message is likely to be grim: a downgrade to official growth forecasts for next year and beyond seems certain. The coalition⁴ government’s hopes of eliminating the “structural⁵” part of the deficit (the bit that cannot be blamed on temporary slack in the economy) and of capping public debt by the end of the current parliament are in serious doubt.

　　要做好坏消息的准备。12月21号，英国首相大为卡梅伦告诉场下的各位商界领袖：缩减赤字的难度非常大。在11月29号，财政部长George Osborne会发表经济和公共财政的演说，卡梅伦的言论为此次演说定下了基调。财政部长很有可能传递负面的消息——明后两年官方经济预测的下滑在所难免。联合政府希望消除经济结构问题所带来的负债，同时希望在本届议会结束之前设置公共债务的限额，而要做到这些又存在着很多疑问。

　　Bond markets are likely to be forgiving, given the scale of troubles elsewhere. But a failure to hit its fiscal⁶ targets would harm the coalition government’s credibility. And there is a more pressing worry. Britain’s strong links with the wretched euro zone mean that its economy is being dragged into continent-wide recession (see article). Some Conservative politicians seem to believe that Britain stands apart from the euro disaster because it has its own currency. In fact, the economy is increasingly dependent on exports, two-fifths of which are shipped to the euro zone. There is little spending power at home: consumers are still carrying a lot of debt while struggling with weak wage growth and high inflation; public spending is shrinking; and business investment has been sluggish⁷.

　　考虑到这次危机的规模之大，英国债券市场的问题还可以被原谅。而联合政府未能达到财政目标，这就使得联合政府的公信力受损。英国与欧元区联系甚是紧密，这也意味着英国的经济也必将被拖入这场席卷欧洲的衰退。一些保守政客认为因为英国有独立的货币，所以他们不会席卷到这场风暴中。而事实上，英国的经济则越来越倚重出口。多达经济总量的五分之二的货物通过海运运往欧元区国家。英国国内购买力越来越低。面对低工资和高通货膨胀，消费者已经负债累累。公共支出在缩减，同时，商业投资也不景气。

　　Bond markets are likely to be forgiving, given the scale of troubles elsewhere. But a failure to hit its fiscal targets would harm the coalition government’s credibility. And there is a more pressing worry. Britain’s strong links with the wretched euro zone mean that its economy is being dragged into continent-wide recession (see article). Some Conservative politicians seem to believe that Britain stands apart from the euro disaster because it has its own currency. In fact, the economy is increasingly dependent on exports, two-fifths of which are shipped to the euro zone. There is little spending power at home: consumers are still carrying a lot of debt while struggling with weak wage growth and high inflation; public spending is shrinking; and business investment has been sluggish.

　　更糟糕的是，英国购买了很多的欧元重灾区的债务。英国银行放款给爱尔兰，西班牙，意大利，葡萄牙和希腊。截止到六月份，放款总额为3500亿美元，相当于其GDP的15%。商业和银行投放大多数款项，但是政府的款项也占到10%。同时，政府也间接放出一些款项。6月份，又一笔2100亿银行资产贷款给了法国和德国的银行，这些钱之后会间接借给意大利和西班牙。

　　Growing anxiety about public finances in Europe has sapped confidence in banks which are big holders⁸ of government bonds. And the rush by European banks to sell bonds of the least creditworthy sovereigns has made things worse. European banks are finding it harder to refinance their own debts at reasonable interest rates, and funding costs are rising for British banks too. That will eventually feed through to higher interest rates on loans to companies and consumers. Banks nervous about euro-zone assets turning sour and keen to preserve scarce capital will be cautious about making new loans, which will only add to the recessionary forces.

　　作为政府债券最大的持有者，银行对于欧洲公共财政状况越来越不安。欧洲银行争先甩卖低信用度的主权债券，这也使得如今的状况变的更加糟糕。在合理的利率范围内，欧洲银行也意识到为债务筹措资金越发困难。同时，在英国，银行融资成本也随之水涨船高。而这些最终必将由提升企业和个人的贷款利率进行填补。面对日益变质的欧洲区资产，银行界十分紧张，与此同时，他们也希望能够能保留仅剩下的资产。因此，他们对于新贷款也越发小心，因为增加贷款这只能加速衰退。

　　Businesses will soon be caught up in this spiral of ever-diminishing confidence. Firms know that credit lines cannot be relied upon when banks and financial markets shun⁹ all but the safest investments. There are already reports that firms are postponing¹⁰ purchases and trimming their stocks of supplies to conserve¹¹ cash. Cuts to discretionary spending, such as capital projects or advertising¹², will become more common as the euro crisis intensifies¹³ and uncertainty¹⁴ and anxiety increase.

　　业界信心普遍下降，企业人士不久也会卷入其中。因为银行和金融市场限制所有贷款，只保留最安全的那部分，因而工厂也意识到不能再依赖信用额度了。有消息称工厂推迟其购买，削减部分发行股票，用现钞保值。由于欧元区危机加重，以及一些不确定性和不安因素，企业会越发频繁对像资本项目和广告这类选择性的花销进行削减。

　　How far might the economy fall? The central case of the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee is that output will be broadly flat in the current quarter and in the first half of 2012, though it thinks a worse outcome is more likely than a better one. Its forecast excludes the possibility of a big euro-zone blow-up, not because this is improbable but because there is “no meaningful way” to calculate its impact. Fear that the euro zone will disintegrate¹⁵ will itself weigh on the economy.

　　经济衰退还要多久？尽管不好的情况发生的可能性比较大，英国央行货币政策委员会公布的数据：产出量本季度和明年一季度会与之前持平。英国的预测也放大了欧元区危机爆发的危机程度。不是因为无法预测他，而是没有可行的方法来测算其影响。对于欧元区的担心也加重了对于其自身经济的担忧。

　　Absent a complete meltdown, the second dip of a “double-dip” recession ought to be smaller than the first, because there are fewer excesses to correct. Britain’s current-account deficit is closer to balance. The household savings¹⁶ rate is a healthy 7.2%, which means consumers have a bigger cushion between their income and spending than they did when recession first struck in 2008. There is less capital spending to cut back on: companies are already sitting on piles of cash. And the flow of capital seeking a haven¹⁷ from the euro crisis will sustain demand for British government bonds, for fancy houses, and for other assets deemed to be safer than euro-zone banks or bonds. Real household income is likely to rise modestly in 2012 after falling sharply this year because of high inflation and tax increases, notes Kevin Daly of Goldman Sachs.

　　英国并未和欧元区完全融合，而且在这次的危机中，英国也没有什么要纠正的失职失误。因此，这一轮的衰退应该比上一次状况要好。而且目前的英国账务赤字接近于均衡。家庭储蓄率也达7.2%。相对2008年的衰退来说，在此健康的利率下，消费者在收入和花销之间有相对更大的缓冲货币。资本支出削减程度也更加有限，而且企业界现在也存有大量的现金。同时，流动资本也在寻找这轮危机中的避风港。资本将会维持对于英国政府债务，奢华的住宅以及一些其他资产的需求，在这些领域投资要比欧洲银行的债务要安全得多。由于高通胀以及税收的增加，不动产收益讲可能在2012年有平稳增长。

　　Yet the likely recession will strain public finances. Figures for the first seven months of the financial year suggest that the government is roughly on track to meet its borrowing target of ￡122 billion (around 8% of GDP) for 2011-12. Yet the number of people claiming unemployment benefit has risen each month since March (see chart). Many economists¹⁸ believe the Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent fiscal watchdog, will take a dimmer view of the economy’s medium-term prospects¹⁹. That would imply less of the budget deficit will be eroded²⁰ as the economy expands to its full potential, and that more of it is therefore structural.

　　这场衰退有可能限制公共财政支出。2011-12财政年度的前7个月统计数据显示政府已经大致完成其借款目标——1220亿英镑。自3月以来，获得失业金的人数每月都在上升。血多经济学家认为独立的财政监督——预算责任部会对中期经济前景会有更低的预期。经济会发挥到最大潜力而且大部分赤字是结构性的，这意味着更少的预算赤字会坏账赖账。

　　This leaves Mr Osborne in an uncomfortable position as he prepares his autumn statement. He has made it clear that he does not regard it as a “fiscal event” where spending and tax changes are announced; that will be saved for the budget in March. But it is a political set-piece all the same. So the chancellor will try to knit together a variety of small, fairly cheap policy strands²¹, such as measures to help small businesses with credit, into a coherent growth strategy. Given the unfolding catastrophe²² on Britain’s doorstep, it is likely to look threadbare.

　　Osbron先生正在准备秋季演说，而之前的预计也让他感到不太舒服。虽然这次演说中会公布支出和税收变化以及3月份削减的额度，但他想让别人明白他不会把这次演说当成一次“财政事件”，归根到底，这是一次政治化决策。财政部长会编织出一系列的小型和低成本措施，比如说帮助一些信用良好的小型企业制定一个连贯的增值计划。的确可能有些老生常谈了，不过这就是摆在英国面前的现实问题。

　　recession n. 后退, 不景气 shrink v. 收缩 coalition n. 结合 euro n.欧元 sap v. 使大伤元气 discretionary adj. 任意的 watchdog n. 监督人 coherent adj. 互相密合着的, 连贯的

1 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

2 envisaged   

想像，设想( envisage的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He envisaged an old age of loneliness and poverty. 他面对着一个孤独而贫困的晚年。
• Henry Ford envisaged an important future for the motor car. 亨利·福特为汽车设想了一个远大前程。

3 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

4 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

5 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

6 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

7 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

8 holders   

支持物( holder的名词复数 )； 持有者； （支票等）持有人； 支托（或握持）…之物

参考例句：

• Slaves were mercilessly ground down by slave holders. 奴隶受奴隶主的残酷压迫。
• It is recognition of compassion's part that leads the up-holders of capital punishment to accuse the abolitionists of sentimentality in being more sorry for the murderer than for his victim. 正是对怜悯的作用有了认识，才使得死刑的提倡者指控主张废除死刑的人感情用事，同情谋杀犯胜过同情受害者。

9 shun   

vt.避开，回避，避免

参考例句：

• Materialists face truth,whereas idealists shun it.唯物主义者面向真理，唯心主义者则逃避真理。
• This extremist organization has shunned conventional politics.这个极端主义组织有意避开了传统政治。

10 postponing   

v.延期，推迟( postpone的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He tried to gain time by postponing his decision. 他想以迟迟不作决定的手段来争取时间。 来自辞典例句
• I don't hold with the idea of postponing further discussion of the matter. 我不赞成推迟进一步讨论这件事的想法。 来自辞典例句

11 conserve   

vt.保存，保护，节约，节省，守恒，不灭

参考例句：

• He writes on both sides of the sheet to conserve paper.他在纸张的两面都写字以节省用纸。
• Conserve your energy,you'll need it!保存你的精力，你会用得着的！

12 advertising   

n.广告业；广告活动 a.广告的；广告业务的

参考例句：

• Can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
• The advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。

13 intensifies   

n.（使）增强， （使）加剧( intensify的名词复数 )v.（使）增强， （使）加剧( intensify的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• A clear atmosphere intensifies the blue of the sky. 纯净的空气使天空变得更蓝。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Blowing on fire intensifies the heat. 吹火使热度加强。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

15 disintegrate   

v.瓦解，解体，（使）碎裂，（使）粉碎

参考例句：

• The older strata gradually disintegrate.较老的岩层渐渐风化。
• The plane would probably disintegrate at that high speed.飞机以那么高速飞行也许会四分五裂。

16 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

17 haven   

n.安全的地方，避难所，庇护所

参考例句：

• It's a real haven at the end of a busy working day.忙碌了一整天后，这真是一个安乐窝。
• The school library is a little haven of peace and quiet.学校的图书馆是一个和平且安静的小避风港。

18 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

19 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

20 eroded   

adj. 被侵蚀的，有蚀痕的 动词erode的过去式和过去分词形式

参考例句：

• The cliff face has been steadily eroded by the sea. 峭壁表面逐渐被海水侵蚀。
• The stream eroded a channel in the solid rock. 小溪在硬石中侵蚀成一条水道。

21 strands   

n.（线、绳、金属线、毛发等的）股( strand的名词复数 )；缕；海洋、湖或河的)岸；（观点、计划、故事等的）部份v.使滞留，使搁浅( strand的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Twist a length of rope from strands of hemp. 用几股麻搓成了一段绳子。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She laced strands into a braid. 她把几股线编织成一根穗带。 来自《简明英汉词典》

22 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。