经济学人310:多哈回合谈判的最后期限

 　　LAST November marked the start of the tenth year since the epic¹, stamina-sapping Doha round of trade talks began. It was also when the German chancellor², Angela Merkel, and Britain’s prime minister, David Cameron, joined by the heads of government of Turkey and Indonesia, asked a group of experts to work out how on earth to get a Doha deal done.

　　去年11月标志着自历史性的一刻——逐渐消耗耐力的多哈回合贸易谈判开始以来第十个年头的开始。德国总理安格拉?默克尔和英国首相戴维?卡梅伦以及土耳其和印尼政府首脑也在去年11月共同要求一批专家研究出切实达成多哈协议的方法。

　　Led by Peter Sutherland, a combative³ former director-general of the World Trade Organisation⁴ and its predecessor⁵ body, GATT, and by a trade economist⁶ at Columbia University, Jagdish Bhagwati, the experts were due to issue a report on January 28th. That will be in the midst of the annual jamboree at Davos in Switzerland, where global bigwigs gather to chew over world affairs.

　　由世贸组织和其前身关税及贸易总协定的前总裁彼得?萨瑟兰和哥伦比亚大学贸易经济学家贾迪什?巴格瓦蒂带头的专家们将于1月28日发布一份报告。在瑞士的达沃斯年会上，全球的权威人士相聚一堂讨论世界事务，这份报告正好在该年会召开期间发布。

　　The report could cause a few attendees to choke on their Glühwein. It urges its sponsors, along with the rest of the leaders of the world’s big economies, formally to commit to finishing the round by the end of the year. It is far from clear how such a deadline could be made binding⁷, but the idea is as much tactical as practical, and received backing this week from the International Chamber⁸ of Commerce.

　　这份报告可能会导致一些与会人员在喝葡萄酒时呛到。该报告敦促主办方以及世界大经济体的其余领导人正式致力于到今年年底完成多哈回合谈判。如何使这样一个最后期限具有约束力尚不甚清楚，但是这个想法既有战术性又有实用性并且在本周得到了国际商会的支持。

　　Mr Sutherland argues that his experience during the Uruguay round of trade talks taught him that having a firm timetable is the best way to knock heads together. Those talks took a mere⁹ seven years, ending in 1994, and if it is any consolation¹⁰ to today’s negotiators, even the WTO’s official history admits that at times they “seemed doomed¹¹ to fail”.

　　萨瑟兰先生称，他在乌拉圭贸易谈判中的经历告诉他，一个坚定的时间表是达成协议的最好方法。那些谈判只进行了7年，于1994年结束。如果这对如今的谈判人员有什么安慰的话，那就是甚至连世贸组织的官方历史也承认，有时那些谈判“似乎注定会失败”。

　　That is a fate that must not befall Doha, the experts insist. They reckon that only a few more steps are needed for an agreement. Richard Baldwin of the Graduate Institute in Geneva, one of the economists¹² in the group, argues that “Doha is a lot closer to being done than it has ever been, and than a lot of people realise.”

　　专家们强调，这样的命运一定不能降落到多哈回合谈判身上。他们认为只需再走几步就可以达成一项协议了。日内瓦研究生所、专家组中的经济学家之一理查德?鲍德温表示“与以往以及许多人意识到的情况相比，多哈回合离达成协议要近得多。”

　　One reason is that agricultural commodity prices are high, so in America subsidies¹³ to farmers, which are linked to world prices, have been tapered¹⁴ down. This means that trimming them back should be less controversial than might otherwise be the case. That could encourage Barack Obama to throw his weight behind the talks. Finishing the Doha round could also help his administration flaunt¹⁵ its pro-business credentials¹⁶, which have been under question of late.

　　原因之一是农产品价格昂贵，因此美国与世界价格相关的农业补贴已经有所减少。这意味着使农产品价格回落应该会比以往少一些争议，这可以促使贝拉克?奥巴马在谈判背后施加影响力。完成多哈回合也有助于表明他的政府是支持企业的，最近这一点一直受到质疑。

　　An emphasis on the importance of removing trade barriers in service industries, such as technology, could help to bring the agreement of big service-sector exporters, notably¹⁷ India. That country’s reluctance¹⁸ to make concessions¹⁹ on agriculture was blamed by many for the collapse²⁰ of the last serious attempt to finish the Doha round in July 2008. And the big emerging economies, the authors argue, need to remember that an umbrella trade agreement that covers almost all countries is far preferable to the idea of trying to strike scores of bilateral²¹ deals.

　　着力于消除服务业（如技术行业）的贸易壁垒可能会有助于获得服务业出口大国（主要是印度）的同意。2008年6月，进行了完成多哈回合的最后一次认真尝试，但失败了。许多人将那次失败归咎于印度不愿在农业方面让步。报告的撰写者们称，新兴大经济体需要铭记的是，几乎所有国家签订的全面贸易协议要比努力签订众多双边协议可取得多。

　　Some Doha doubters argue that the world economy has moved on since the round began—trade in services has become far more important, and many countries have already cut tariffs²² on their own—making the talks largely irrelevant²³. But the authors provide some convincing evidence against this view. The proposals already on the table would add $360 billion in new trade each year. They would lead to a substantial reduction in the tariffs paid. For example, the total amount of tariffs paid on manufactured goods imported into America could fall by almost 50%.

　　一些多哈回合的怀疑人士称，自多哈回合开始以来，世界经济已经发展了。服务业的贸易变得重要得多，许多国家已经自行降低关税，这使谈判变得基本上无关紧要了。但是报告的撰写者提供了一些令人信服的证据来推翻这种观点。在谈判中已经提出来的意见将使新的贸易额每年增加3600亿美元。它们将使所支付的关税大大减少。比如，进入美国的制造业商品所需的关税总额将减少近50%。

　　The authors do, though, admit that there are growing gaps “between 20th-century trade governance and 21st-century trade”. A case in point is the growth and rising complexity²⁴ of global supply chains, which means that today’s protectionists are more likely to resort to targeted rules rather than tariffs; this makes trade negotiators’ traditional goal of tariff-killing less relevant. But abandoning the present negotiations²⁵ in favour of an entirely²⁶ new round of talks with a more up-to-date agenda, as some have advocated, has even less chance of getting anywhere than the Doha effort. That is saying something.

　　不过，报告的撰写者也承认，“20世纪和21世纪之间的贸易管理”差距日益加大。证明这一点的一个例子是全球供应链增加并且越来越复杂，这意味着如今的贸易保护主义者更有可能采用有针对性的法规，而不是关税，这使贸易谈判人员消除关税的传统目标不那么合理了。但是要是像一些人所提倡的那样，放弃当前的谈判，采用一个更加与时俱进的议程，启动一轮全新的谈判，那么成功的可能性比多哈回合甚至还要小。这是有一定道理的。

1 epic   

n.史诗，叙事诗；adj.史诗般的，壮丽的

参考例句：

• I gave up my epic and wrote this little tale instead.我放弃了写叙事诗，而写了这个小故事。
• They held a banquet of epic proportions.他们举行了盛大的宴会。

2 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

3 combative   

adj.好战的；好斗的

参考例句：

• Mr. Obama has recently adopted a more combative tone.奥巴马总统近来采取了一种更有战斗性的语调。
• She believes that women are at least as combative as are.她相信女性至少和男性一样好斗。

4 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

5 predecessor   

n.前辈，前任

参考例句：

• It will share the fate of its predecessor.它将遭受与前者同样的命运。
• The new ambassador is more mature than his predecessor.新大使比他的前任更成熟一些。

6 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

7 binding   

有约束力的，有效的，应遵守的

参考例句：

• The contract was not signed and has no binding force. 合同没有签署因而没有约束力。
• Both sides have agreed that the arbitration will be binding. 双方都赞同仲裁具有约束力。

8 chamber   

n.房间，寝室；会议厅；议院；会所

参考例句：

• For many,the dentist's surgery remains a torture chamber.对许多人来说，牙医的治疗室一直是间受刑室。
• The chamber was ablaze with light.会议厅里灯火辉煌。

9 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

10 consolation   

n.安慰，慰问

参考例句：

• The children were a great consolation to me at that time.那时孩子们成了我的莫大安慰。
• This news was of little consolation to us.这个消息对我们来说没有什么安慰。

11 doomed   

命定的

参考例句：

• The court doomed the accused to a long term of imprisonment. 法庭判处被告长期监禁。
• A country ruled by an iron hand is doomed to suffer. 被铁腕人物统治的国家定会遭受不幸的。

12 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 tapered   

adj. 锥形的，尖削的，楔形的，渐缩的，斜的 动词taper的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The tail tapered to a rounded tip. 尾部越来越细，最后成了个圆尖。
• The organization tapered off in about half a year. 那个组织大约半年内就逐渐消失了。

15 flaunt   

vt.夸耀，夸饰

参考例句：

• His behavior was an outrageous flaunt.他的行为是一种无耻的炫耀。
• Why would you flaunt that on a public forum?为什么你们会在公共论坛大肆炫耀？

16 credentials   

n.证明，资格，证明书，证件

参考例句：

• He has long credentials of diplomatic service.他的外交工作资历很深。
• Both candidates for the job have excellent credentials.此项工作的两个求职者都非常符合资格。

17 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

18 reluctance   

n.厌恶，讨厌，勉强，不情愿

参考例句：

• The police released Andrew with reluctance.警方勉强把安德鲁放走了。
• He showed the greatest reluctance to make a reply.他表示很不愿意答复。

19 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

20 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

21 bilateral   

adj.双方的，两边的，两侧的

参考例句：

• They have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal.他们一直在商谈一项双边贸易协定。
• There was a wide gap between the views of the two statesmen on the bilateral cooperation.对双方合作的问题，两位政治家各自所持的看法差距甚大。

22 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

23 irrelevant   

adj.不恰当的，无关系的，不相干的

参考例句：

• That is completely irrelevant to the subject under discussion.这跟讨论的主题完全不相关。
• A question about arithmetic is irrelevant in a music lesson.在音乐课上，一个数学的问题是风马牛不相及的。

24 complexity   

n.复杂(性)，复杂的事物

参考例句：

• Only now did he understand the full complexity of the problem.直到现在他才明白这一问题的全部复杂性。
• The complexity of the road map puzzled me.错综复杂的公路图把我搞糊涂了。

25 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

26 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。