经济学人369:希望永不泯灭

 　　The Arab uprising

　　阿拉伯世界的起义

　　Hope springs eternal

　　希望永不泯灭

　　The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East.By Marc Lynch.

　　阿拉伯世界的起义：未完结的新中东革命。马克?里奇著。

　　THE Arab spring has, inevitably¹, spawned² a gaggle of instant books.

　　轰轰烈烈的阿拉伯之春不可避免导致了大量实时书籍的涌现。

　　But it was much easier to make sense of the region’s upheavals³ a year ago, in the first flush of excitement, than it is today.

　　但是现在解释这场大动乱爆发的合理之处，与一年前革命之火熊熊点燃之时相比困难多了。

　　With Egypt languishing⁴ under military rule, Libya groping for national unity⁵,

　　现在，埃及在军事统治下日趋衰弱，利比亚在黑暗中摸索国家统一的道路，

　　Syria’s body-count rising and only Tunisia witnessing a relatively⁶ smooth political transition, is there still a single unifying⁷ narrative⁸?

　　叙利亚起义堆积了累累白骨，也仅仅只有突尼斯处于相对平稳的政治过渡期。在这种情形之下，阐述这场革命是否还是和当初的口吻相一致呢？

　　Marc Lynch, an American scholar and blogger with ties to the Obama administration, believes there is.

　　马克?里奇认为是这样的。他是一位美国学者并且为奥巴马政府撰写博客。

　　Although alive to the setbacks of the past year, he remains⁹ hopeful.

　　虽然认识到过去一年挫折重重，他仍然对阿拉伯世界的起义保持着乐观的态度。

　　In “The Arab Uprising”, he argues that the old status quo in the Middle East has been shattered for good, and that the rest of us had better get used to this brave but baffling new world.

　　在《阿拉伯世界的起义》一书中，他认为中东世界陈腐现状的大洗牌是一件好事，余下的人们应接受这个充满勇气又令人困惑的新世界。

　　To explain today’s events, he goes back to the 1950s, when the revolution of Gamal Abdel Nasser in Egypt set Arab pulses racing¹⁰.

　　为了解释本次事件，马克?里奇回顾了上世纪50年代由迦玛尔?阿卜杜尔?纳赛尔领导的埃及革命，此次革命曾掀起阿拉伯世界如火如荼的革命浪潮。

　　But that first Arab spring died in 1967, in Israel’s humiliating defeat of the Arab armies in the six-day war—a useful warning for today’s revolutionaries that success is not preordained.

　　然而，首次的阿拉伯之春于1967年阿拉伯联军被以色列耻辱性的击败而宣告结束。这次“六日战争”对于今天的革命者们无疑是一个有益的警醒：胜利绝非上天注定。

　　Today’s Arab societies have some of the same objectives—to achieve dignity and freedom, to break with Western tutelage—but their populations are bigger,

　　今天在阿拉伯社会同样存在着一些相同的期望，那就是要争取尊严和自由、摆脱西方世界的管制。但是较之当初，他们已拥有了更加庞大的人口基础，

　　they are readier to challenge autocratic rulers and, thanks to satellite television, Facebook and Twitter, they are more intimately connected with one another and with the world.

　　更加乐意于向独裁统治者发出挑战。而卫星电视，facebook和twitter等现代信息传播工具也使他们能够与彼此、与世界保持更紧密的联系。

　　Mr Lynch, who made his name with his 2006 book, “Voices of the New Arab Public”, understands what makes Arab opinion tick.

　　2006年出版的《新阿拉伯民众的呼声》一书使马克?里奇名声大噪，他明白是什么导致了阿拉伯人民的想法。

　　His new book sets out, clearly and forthrightly¹¹, to dispel¹² Western (and especially American) illusions about the nature of change in the Arab world.

　　此次新书的出版，清楚而直截了当地打破了西方（尤其是美国）对于阿拉伯世界变革的本质所抱有的错误幻想。

　　He does not accept, for instance, that the successes of the Islamists in recent elections in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco are cause for alarm.

　　举例来说，在近期突尼斯、埃及和摩洛哥的选举中伊斯兰教主义者大获胜利，但里奇并不认为这值得担忧。

　　It is inevitable¹³, he contends, that groups like the Muslim Brotherhood¹⁴ will benefit from an opening-up of political space, and their democratic pretensions¹⁵ should be put to the test.

　　他称，类似穆斯林兄弟会的组织从开放的政治角逐中获得优势，这是不可避免地；他们的民主主张也应该受到检验。

　　Mr Lynch also thinks the uprisings, by empowering Arab publics, have made the Palestinian issue more important. He supported military intervention¹⁶ in Libya, but opposes it in Syria.

　　他同时认为，由阿拉伯民众发起的起义也使解决巴基斯坦问题变得更为紧迫。他此前支持在利比亚的军事干涉活动，但此次反对对叙利亚进行军事干涉。

　　His account is especially useful when it comes to the regional fallout. He sees Turkey and Qatar, which have embraced the new mood, as winners; Israel and Iran as sullen¹⁷ spectators.

　　特别在涉及到地区影响的问题时，他的解释尤为合理。对于接受了新潮流的土耳其和卡塔尔，他将其视为赢家；而以色列和伊朗则是阴郁的旁观者。

　　As for America, Mr Lynch thinks Barack Obama has got some big things right: the president has understood,

　　至于美国，里奇认为奥巴马在一些重大问题上站对了位置：

　　in particular, as his critics frequently have not, that these are home-grown uprisings, neither needing nor welcoming American leadership.

　　即他认识到这是阿拉伯世界内部的动乱，既不需要也不欢迎美国的领导，而奥巴马的批评者们屡屡忽视这一点。

　　But Mr Lynch faults Mr Obama for his failure to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace, to criticise¹⁸ more firmly the suppression of Bahrain’s uprising or to develop a more effective public diplomacy¹⁹.

　　但里奇同时也指责奥巴马没能成功推动巴以和平进程，并更加坚决地批评了对巴林地区动乱的镇压或是开展更有效的公共外交。

　　Is Mr Lynch right in declaring the old status quo beyond recall? This may be too rosy²⁰.

　　是否像里奇认为的那样，阿拉伯世界陈腐的面貌经一去不返 ？这样说未免过于乐观了。

　　But of all the books on the extraordinary events of the past 15 months, this is one of the most illuminating²¹ and, for policymakers, the most challenging.

　　但是在所有介绍过去1年零3个月 阿拉伯世界变革的书里面，这本书是最富于启发的，对于政策制定者来说也是最富有挑战意味的。

1 inevitably   

adv.不可避免地；必然发生地

参考例句：

• In the way you go on,you are inevitably coming apart.照你们这样下去，毫无疑问是会散伙的。
• Technological changes will inevitably lead to unemployment.技术变革必然会导致失业。

2 spawned   

（鱼、蛙等）大量产（卵）( spawn的过去式和过去分词 )； 大量生产

参考例句：

• The band's album spawned a string of hit singles. 这支乐队的专辑繁衍出一连串走红的单曲唱片。
• The computer industry has spawned a lot of new companies. 由于电脑工业的发展，许多新公司纷纷成立。

3 upheavals   

突然的巨变( upheaval的名词复数 )； 大动荡； 大变动； 胀起

参考例句：

• the latest upheavals in the education system 最近教育制度上的种种变更
• These political upheavals might well destroy the whole framework of society. 这些政治动乱很可能会破坏整个社会结构。

4 languishing   

a. 衰弱下去的

参考例句：

• He is languishing for home. 他苦思家乡。
• How long will she go on languishing for her red-haired boy? 为想见到她的红头发的儿子，她还将为此烦恼多久呢？

5 unity   

n.团结，联合，统一；和睦，协调

参考例句：

• When we speak of unity,we do not mean unprincipled peace.所谓团结，并非一团和气。
• We must strengthen our unity in the face of powerful enemies.大敌当前，我们必须加强团结。

6 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

7 unifying   

使联合( unify的现在分词 )； 使相同； 使一致； 统一

参考例句：

• In addition, there were certain religious bonds of a unifying kind. 此外，他们还有某种具有一种统一性质的宗教上的结合。
• There is a unifying theme, and that is the theme of information flow within biological systems. 我们可以用一个总的命题，把生物学系统内的信息流来作为这一研究主题。

8 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

9 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

10 racing   

n.竞赛，赛马；adj.竞赛用的，赛马用的

参考例句：

• I was watching the racing on television last night.昨晚我在电视上看赛马。
• The two racing drivers fenced for a chance to gain the lead.两个赛车手伺机竞相领先。

11 forthrightly   

ad.言行坦诚地，直率地

参考例句：

• Didn't prevaricate but answered forthrightly and honestly. 毫不欺骗而是坦言相告。
• However in the economic production function that how knowledge contains a level forthrightly? 然而知识如何直接地包含到标准的经济生产函数中？

12 dispel   

vt.驱走，驱散，消除

参考例句：

• I tried in vain to dispel her misgivings.我试图消除她的疑虑，但没有成功。
• We hope the programme will dispel certain misconceptions about the disease.我们希望这个节目能消除对这种疾病的一些误解。

13 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

14 brotherhood   

n.兄弟般的关系，手中情谊

参考例句：

• They broke up the brotherhood.他们断绝了兄弟关系。
• They live and work together in complete equality and brotherhood.他们完全平等和兄弟般地在一起生活和工作。

15 pretensions   

自称( pretension的名词复数 )； 自命不凡； 要求； 权力

参考例句：

• The play mocks the pretensions of the new middle class. 这出戏讽刺了新中产阶级的装模作样。
• The city has unrealistic pretensions to world-class status. 这个城市不切实际地标榜自己为国际都市。

16 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

17 sullen   

adj.愠怒的，闷闷不乐的，(天气等)阴沉的

参考例句：

• He looked up at the sullen sky.他抬头看了一眼阴沉的天空。
• Susan was sullen in the morning because she hadn't slept well.苏珊今天早上郁闷不乐，因为昨晚没睡好。

18 criticise   

v.批评，评论；非难

参考例句：

• Right and left have much cause to criticise government.左翼和右翼有很多理由批评政府。
• It is not your place to criticise or suggest improvements!提出批评或给予改进建议并不是你的责任！

19 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

20 rosy   

adj.美好的，乐观的，玫瑰色的

参考例句：

• She got a new job and her life looks rosy.她找到一份新工作，生活看上去很美好。
• She always takes a rosy view of life.她总是对生活持乐观态度。

21 illuminating   

a.富于启发性的，有助阐明的

参考例句：

• We didn't find the examples he used particularly illuminating. 我们觉得他采用的那些例证启发性不是特别大。
• I found his talk most illuminating. 我觉得他的话很有启发性。