2022年经济学人 美国通胀

Finance and Economics

财经版块

Follow the money

跟着钱走

The only thing that proved transitory about inflation in America in 2021 was the consensus¹ that it would subside².

唯一能证明2021年美国的通货膨胀是暂时的，是人们一致认为它将会消退。

The left-hand chart shows that analysts³ consistently revised up their predictions, trailing reality.

左边的图表显示，分析师不断向上修正他们的预测，还是落后于现实。

Consumer prices are now rising by nearly 7% compared with a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1982.

与去年同期相比，消费者价格上涨了近7%，这是自1982年以来的最快增速。

What does the future hold?

未来是什么样子？

The right-hand chart presents two scenarios⁴.

右边的图表显示了两种情况。

In the first, month-on-month inflation immediately falls back to its pre-pandemic trajectory⁵.

第一种情况，月度环比通胀率立即回落至疫情前的水平。

Even so, it would take until the end of 2022 for annual inflation to slow to the 2% pace that used to be the norm.

即便如此，年通胀率要到2022年底才能降至2%，这在过去是常态。

In the second case, consumer prices rise at the same monthly clip seen over the past year.

第二种情况，消费者价格指数月度增幅与去年持平。

Annual inflation would soar to nearly 8% in February, and stay elevated.

2月份，年通货膨胀率将飙升至近8%，并保持在较高水平。

Either way, one prediction seems rock-solid: the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in 2022, as the central bank itself indicated on December 15th.

无论哪种情况，有一种预测似乎已成定局：美联储将在2022年开始加息，正如央行自己在12月15日表示的那样。

1 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

2 subside   

vi.平静，平息；下沉，塌陷，沉降

参考例句：

• The emotional reaction which results from a serious accident takes time to subside.严重事故所引起的情绪化的反应需要时间来平息。
• The controversies surrounding population growth are unlikely to subside soon.围绕着人口增长问题的争论看来不会很快平息。

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

5 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。