2022年经济学人 科技泡沫正在破裂（2）

The industry has suffered from an abrupt¹ reversal of fortunes, explains Mark Mahaney of Evercore ISI, an investment bank.

投资银行Evercore isi的Mark Mahaney解释说，这个行业遭遇了命运的突然逆转。

In recent years more than one factor gave tech a boost: the coronavirus pandemic pushed life and work online; government stimulus² programmes further increased demand; and super-loose monetary³ policy made tech’s long-term growth more attractive to investors⁴.

近年来，有多个因素推动了科技的发展:冠状病毒大流行推动了生活和工作的网络化;政府的刺激计划进一步增加了需求;超宽松的货币政策也让科技公司的长期增长对投资者更具吸引力。

Now people are turning away from screens and leaving home again; the war in Ukraine is creating paralysing uncertainty⁵; and economies around the world are suffering from inflation and soon, perhaps, recession.

现在人们不再使用屏幕，再次离开家；乌克兰战争正在制造令人丧失思考的不确定性；世界各地的经济都在受到通货膨胀的困扰，并且，可能很快就会陷入衰退。

Then there are rising interest rates.

然后是不断上升的利率。

Besides possibly triggering a downturn, they reduce the present value of tech companies’ profits, most of which lie far in the future.

除了可能引发经济低迷之外，它们还会降低科技公司的利润现值，而这些利润大多还需要很长时间才能兑现。

If inflation does not come down, central banks will pile on more rate rises, putting further pressure on risky⁶ tech stocks.

如果通胀不下降，各国央行将加大加息力度，给高风险科技股带来进一步压力。

How bad will things get?

情况会变得多糟糕？

Although stockmarkets have stabilised a bit in recent days, no one is ready to call the bottom.

尽管股市在最近几天已经稳定了一些，但没有人准备抄底。

Just as markets have overshot in the past few years, they can undershoot.

就像过去几年市场涨得过高一样，它们也可能跌得过低。

There is more of a consensus⁷ over what could happen when the dust has settled.

对于尘埃落定后会发生什么，人们达成了更多的共识。

According to Daniel Ives of Wedbush, another investment bank, the tech industry is at a “fork in the road”.

另一家投资银行韦德布什的丹尼尔·艾夫斯表示，科技行业正处在“十字路口”。

As interest rates go up, he argues, investors will turn their back on more speculative⁸ growth stocks and focus on the quality names in tech.

他认为，随着利率上升，投资者将抛弃更具投机性的成长型股票，转而关注科技股中的优质股。

No prizes for guessing which ones.

哪些是优质股无需多猜。

Although the combined market value of America’s tech titans - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft - has dropped by nearly 25% since November and their latest results were less stellar than in earlier quarters, they remain safe bets.

尽管美国科技巨头Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta和微软的总市值自去年11月以来已经下跌了近25%，而且它们的最新业绩也不如前几个季度那么出色，但它们仍然是稳妥的赌注。

Together they booked $359bn in quarterly sales and $69bn in net profits.

这些公司总共录得3590亿美元的季度销售额和690亿美元的净利润。

Their core businesses are still growing - in particular cloud computing⁹.

他们的核心业务仍在增长——尤其是云计算。

Collectively, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, the world’s three biggest cloud providers, took in $43bn of sales for such services in the first three months of 2022, up by 33% from a year earlier.

全球三大云服务提供商Alphabet、亚马逊和微软在2022年第一季度共实现了430亿美元的云服务销售额，同比增长33%。

More unexpectedly, older tech and hardware stocks seem in decent nick, Mr Ives notes.

艾夫斯指出，更令人没想到的是，老牌科技和硬件股似乎状况不错。

Intel, a veteran chipmaker, is down by a relatively¹⁰ modest 13% since November.

老牌芯片制造商英特尔自去年11月以来股价下跌了13%，是一个相对温和的数字。

IBM, a software icon¹¹, is up by 12%.

软件巨头IBM股价上涨了12%。

Makers¹² of business software with steady sales and high margins¹³, such as Adobe¹⁴, Oracle¹⁵ and Salesforce, may rebound¹⁶ fast.

销售稳定、利润率高的商业软件制造商，如Adobe、甲骨文和Salesforce，可能会快速回弹。

Hard though it may seem given Coinbase’s crash on May 11th, so may payments and crypto platforms, which have joined the financial mainstream¹⁷.

考虑到5月11日Coinbase的崩盘，这似乎看起来很困难，但已经加入金融主流的支付和加密平台也是如此。

Cyber-security firms, such as CrowdStrike or Palo Alto Networks, could see their fortunes return thanks to fears of Russian and Chinese cyber-attacks.

由于担心俄罗斯和中国的网络攻击，CrowdStrike或Palo Alto Networks等网络安全公司可能会重新迎来机遇。

Geopolitical rifts¹⁸ may even lift Palantir, a secretive analytics firm that works with security services, whose share price plunged¹⁹ by 20% on May 9th after it disclosed slowing sales growth.

地缘政治分裂甚至可能提振Palantir，这是一家与安全服务部门合作的秘密分析公司，在5月9日公布销售增长放缓后其股价暴跌20%。

Persistently²⁰ unprofitable gig-economy firms look shakier.

长期不盈利的零工经济公司看起来更加摇摇欲坠。

Uber, the ride-hailing and delivery champion which reported on May 4th that trips and users rose by nearly a fifth year on year in the first quarter, still lost nearly $6bn.

网约车和配送行业的领头羊优步在5月4日报告称，第一季度的出行次数和用户数量同比增长近五分之一，但仍亏损近60亿美元。

The heavy repricing of video-streamers, with multibillion-dollar content expenses and reversing (Netflix) or even steady (Disney) subscriber²¹ growth, may be permanent.

视频流媒体的大幅重新定价可能是永久性的，因为流媒体的内容成本高达数十亿美元，并且订阅数的增长正在逆转(网飞)，甚至稳定(迪士尼)。

The same may be true for second-tier firms in areas such as social media (Snap) or e-commerce (Shopify), which are dominated by Meta and Amazon, respectively.

社交媒体(Snap)或电子商务(Shopify)等领域的二线公司的情况可能也是如此，这两个领域分别由Meta和亚马逊主导。

It would be wrong to compare the current tech slump²² to the bursting of the dotcom bubble two decades ago.

将当前的科技行业低迷与20年前的互联网泡沫破裂相提并论是不对的。

Back then companies had neither healthy balance-sheets nor promising²³ business models.

当时的那些公司既没有健康的资产负债表，也没有前景美好的商业模式。

Nowadays many of them have both.

而如今这些公司中的许多家都两者兼有。

The stomach-churning market gyrations are unpleasant to a generation of tech founders²⁴, workers and investors who have lived a long bull run.

对于经历了长时间牛市的一代科技公司创始人、员工和投资者来说，令人反胃的市场波动是令人不快的。

But they are unlikely to stop digital technology eating the world.

但这些波动不太可能阻止数字技术吞噬世界。

1 abrupt   

adj.突然的，意外的；唐突的，鲁莽的

参考例句：

• The river takes an abrupt bend to the west.这河突然向西转弯。
• His abrupt reply hurt our feelings.他粗鲁的回答伤了我们的感情。

2 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

3 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

6 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

7 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

8 speculative   

adj.思索性的，暝想性的，推理的

参考例句：

• Much of our information is speculative.我们的许多信息是带推测性的。
• The report is highly speculative and should be ignored.那个报道推测的成分很大，不应理会。

9 computing   

n.计算

参考例句：

• to work in computing 从事信息处理
• Back in the dark ages of computing, in about 1980, they started a software company. 早在计算机尚未普及的时代（约1980年），他们就创办了软件公司。

10 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

11 icon   

n.偶像，崇拜的对象，画像

参考例句：

• They found an icon in the monastery.他们在修道院中发现了一个圣像。
• Click on this icon to align or justify text.点击这个图标使文本排齐。

12 makers   

n.制造者，制造商（maker的复数形式）

参考例句：

• The makers of the product assured us that there had been no sacrifice of quality. 这一产品的制造商向我们保证说他们没有牺牲质量。
• The makers are about to launch out a new product. 制造商们马上要生产一种新产品。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

14 adobe   

n.泥砖，土坯，美国Adobe公司

参考例句：

• They live in an adobe house.他们住在一间土坯屋里。
• Adobe bricks must drived dried completely before are used.土坯砖块使用前一定要完全干燥。

15 oracle   

n.神谕，神谕处，预言

参考例句：

• In times of difficulty,she pray for an oracle to guide her.在困难的时候，她祈祷神谕来指引她。
• It is a kind of oracle that often foretells things most important.它是一种内生性神谕，常常能预言最重要的事情。

16 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

17 mainstream   

n.（思想或行为的）主流；adj.主流的

参考例句：

• Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
• Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。

18 rifts   

n.裂缝( rift的名词复数 )；裂隙；分裂；不和

参考例句：

• After that, through the rifts in the inky clouds sparkled redder and yet more luminous particles. 然后在几条墨蓝色云霞的隙缝里闪出几个更红更亮的小片。 来自汉英文学 - 现代散文
• The Destinies mend rifts in time as man etches fate. 当人类想要再次亵渎命运的时候，命运及时修正了这些裂痕。 来自互联网

19 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

20 persistently   

ad.坚持地；固执地

参考例句：

• He persistently asserted his right to a share in the heritage. 他始终声称他有分享那笔遗产的权利。
• She persistently asserted her opinions. 她果断地说出了自己的意见。

21 subscriber   

n.用户，订户；（慈善机关等的）定期捐款者；预约者；签署者

参考例句：

• The subscriber to a government loan has got higher interest than savings. 公债认购者获得高于储蓄的利息。 来自辞典例句
• Who is the subscriber of that motto? 谁是那条座右铭的签字者？ 来自辞典例句

22 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

23 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

24 founders   

n.创始人( founder的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He was one of the founders of the university's medical faculty. 他是该大学医学院的创建人之一。 来自辞典例句
• The founders of our religion made this a cornerstone of morality. 我们宗教的创始人把这看作是道德的基石。 来自辞典例句