2022年经济学人 在艰难时期管理美国企业（1）

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Managing American business in hard times: No margin¹ for error

在艰难时期管理美国企业：容不得犯错

A guide to running a company in a period of stagflation.

在滞胀时期经营公司的指南。

For the leaders of American Inc, high inflation is unwelcome.

美国公司的领导人不欢迎高通胀。

It is also unfamiliar².

对其也不熟悉。

Warren Buffett, 91, the oldest boss in the S&P 500 index of big firms, most recently warned about the dangers of rising prices in his annual shareholder³ letter for 2011.

91岁的沃伦·巴菲特是标准普尔500指数的大企业中年龄最大的老板，最近的一次，他早在2011年致股东的信中就股价上涨的危险发出了警告。

The average chief executive of a company in the index, aged⁴ a stripling 58, had not started university in 1979 when Paul Volcker, inflation’s enemy-in-chief, became chairman of the Federal Reserve.

该指数成分股公司的首席执行官平均年龄为58岁，还很年轻，按照这个年纪来算，在1979年，通货膨胀的头号敌人保罗·沃尔克成为美联储主席时，他们都还没有上大学。

By the time the average boss began working the rise of globalised capitalism⁵ was ushering⁶ in an era of low inflation and high profits.

在这个岁数的老板刚刚开始工作时，全球化资本主义的崛起正迎来一个低通胀、高利润的时代。

Their firms’ share prices rose between the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the covid-19 pandemic, a decade of rock-bottom inflation.

在2007-2009年的世界金融危机到2019年暴发新冠疫情的这十年间，通货膨胀触底，他们公司的股价都有所上涨。

Inflation will stay high for some time yet.

通货膨胀率仍将在一段时间内居高不下。

On June 7th the World Bank warned that “several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth now seem likely.”

6月7日，世界银行警告称，“未来数年，通货膨胀率高于平均水平，而经济增长低于平均水平的局面，在目前看来是有可能的。”

A new study by Marijn Bolhuis, Judd Cramer and Lawrence Summers finds that if you measure inflation consistently, today’s rate is not that far off the peak in 1980.

马尔金·博尔赫斯、贾德·克雷默和劳伦斯·萨默斯的一项新研究发现，如果你一直衡量通胀率，就会发现今天的通胀率与1980年的峰值相差不远。

As the past creeps up on the future, “stagflation” is preoccupying⁷ the denizens⁸ of corner offices.

随着过去逐渐逼近未来，“滞胀”正困扰着高级办公室里的人。

Today’s executives may think of themselves as battle-hardened—they have experienced a financial crisis and a pandemic.

今天的高管可能认为自己身经百战--他们经历了一场金融危机和一场疫情。

However, the stagflationary challenge requires a different toolkit that borrows from the past and also involves new tricks.

然而，应对滞胀挑战需要一套不同的工具，一套既借鉴过去，也包含新技巧的工具。

The primary task for any management team is to defend margins⁹ and cashflow, which investors¹⁰ favour over revenue growth when things get dicey.

任何管理团队的首要任务都是保护利润和现金流，当形势变得不明朗时，投资者更喜欢利润和现金流，而不是收入增长。

That will require fighting harder down in the trenches¹¹ of the income statement.

这将需要在损益表的战壕中更加努力地战斗。

Although a rise in margins as inflation first picked up last year led politicians to denounce corporate¹² “greedflation”, after-tax profits in fact tend to come down as a share of GDP when price rises persist, based on the experience of all American firms since 1950.

尽管在去年通胀首次抬头时，利润率因此上升，引发政界人士谴责企业“贪婪膨胀”，但实际上，根据1950年以来所有美国公司的经验，当价格持续上涨时，税后利润占国内生产总值的比例往往会下降。

To create shareholder value in this environment companies must increase their cashflows in real terms.

为了在这种环境下创造股东价值，企业必须增加实际现金流。

That means a combination of cutting expenses and passing cost inflation on to customers without dampening sales volumes.

这意味着在不影响销量的情况下，既要削减开支，又要将成本膨胀转嫁给客户。

Cost-cutting will not be easy.

削减成本并非易事。

The prices of commodities, transport and labour remain elevated and most companies are price-takers in those markets.

大宗商品、运输和劳动力的价格仍然居高不下，大多数公司又都是这些市场的价格接受者。

Supply-chain constraints¹³ have begun to ease a bit and may keep easing in the coming months.

供应链的限制已经开始有所缓解，并可能在未来几个月继续放松。

But disruptions will almost certainly continue.

但几乎可以肯定的是，妨碍将继续存在。

In April Apple lamented¹⁴ that the industry-wide computer-chip shortage is expected to create a $4bn-8bn “constraint” for the iPhone-maker in the current quarter.

今年4月，苹果曾哀叹，整个行业的电脑芯片短缺预计将在本季度给他们这家iPhone制造商带来40亿至80亿美元的“限制”。

The input¹⁵ bosses can control most easily is labour.

老板们最容易控制的投入是劳动力。

After months of frenzied¹⁶ hiring, companies are looking to protect margins by getting more from their workers—or getting the same amount from fewer of them.

在疯狂招聘了数月后，企业正指望通过从员工那里获得更多利润--或者从更少的员工那里获得相同利润的方式，来保护利润。

The labour market remains¹⁷ drum-tight: in America wages are up by more than 5% year on year and in April lay-offs hit a record low.

劳动力市场仍然紧张：在美国，工资同比增长了5%以上，4月份的裁员人数创历史新低。

But, in some corners, the pandemic hiring binge to meet pent-up demand is being unwound.

但是，在一些角落，为满足人们被压抑的需求而掀起的疫情招聘狂潮正在消退。

1 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

2 unfamiliar   

adj.陌生的，不熟悉的

参考例句：

• I am unfamiliar with the place and the people here.我在这儿人地生疏。
• The man seemed unfamiliar to me.这人很面生。

3 shareholder   

n.股东，股票持有人

参考例句：

• The account department have prepare a financial statement for the shareholder.财务部为股东准备了一份财务报表。
• A shareholder may transfer his shares in accordance with the law.股东持有的股份可以依法转让。

4 aged   

adj.年老的，陈年的

参考例句：

• He had put on weight and aged a little.他胖了，也老点了。
• He is aged,but his memory is still good.他已年老，然而记忆力还好。

5 capitalism   

n.资本主义

参考例句：

• The essence of his argument is that capitalism cannot succeed.他的论点的核心是资本主义不能成功。
• Capitalism began to develop in Russia in the 19th century.十九世纪资本主义在俄国开始发展。

6 ushering   

v.引，领，陪同( usher的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• They were right where the coach-caller was swinging open a coach-door and ushering in two ladies. "他们走到外面时，叫马车的服务员正打开车门，请两位小姐上车。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹
• Immediately the two of them approached others, thanking them, ushering them out one by one. 他们俩马上走到其他人面前，向他们道谢，一个个送走了他们。 来自辞典例句

7 preoccupying   

v.占据（某人）思想，使对…全神贯注，使专心于( preoccupy的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Something seems to is preoccupying her at the moment. 她此刻若有所思。 来自互联网
• As with urban crime, failing urban schools are preoccupying countries the world over. 那些学校的升学率惊人地低，许多学生甚至不能没有基本的读写能力和计算能力。 来自互联网

8 denizens   

n.居民，住户( denizen的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• polar bears, denizens of the frozen north 北极熊，在冰天雪地的北方生活的动物
• At length these denizens of the swamps disappeared in their turn. 到了后来，连这些沼泽国的居民们也不见了。 来自辞典例句

9 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

10 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

11 trenches   

深沟，地沟( trench的名词复数 )； 战壕

参考例句：

• life in the trenches 第一次世界大战期间的战壕生活
• The troops stormed the enemy's trenches and fanned out across the fields. 部队猛攻敌人的战壕，并在田野上呈扇形散开。

12 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

13 constraints   

强制( constraint的名词复数 )； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

14 lamented   

adj.被哀悼的，令人遗憾的v.（为…）哀悼，痛哭，悲伤( lament的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• her late lamented husband 她那令人怀念的已故的丈夫
• We lamented over our bad luck. 我们为自己的不幸而悲伤。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 input   

n.输入(物)；投入；vt.把(数据等)输入计算机

参考例句：

• I will forever be grateful for his considerable input.我将永远感激他的大量投入。
• All this information had to be input onto the computer.所有这些信息都必须输入计算机。

16 frenzied   

a.激怒的；疯狂的

参考例句：

• Will this push him too far and lead to a frenzied attack? 这会不会逼他太甚，导致他进行疯狂的进攻？
• Two teenagers carried out a frenzied attack on a local shopkeeper. 两名十几岁的少年对当地的一个店主进行了疯狂的袭击。

17 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。