2022年经济学人 投资者应该如何应对反复出现的通胀冲击?（2）

These tailwinds have turned.

但这些顺风已经转向了。

Covid-19 messed up supply chains; war and sabre-rattling are undermining globalisation.

新冠肺炎扰乱了供应链；战争和武力威胁正在削弱全球化进程。

Manoj Pradhan, formerly¹ of Morgan Stanley, points out that China’s working-age population has peaked.

曾就职于摩根士丹利的马诺杰·普拉丹指出，中国的劳动年龄人口已经达到顶峰。

Jeremy Grantham, a bearish² hedge-fund investor³, fears that the switch to renewables will be slow and costly⁴, and that lower investment in fossil-fuel production will make it hard for energy firms to ramp⁵ up supply, increasing the risk of energy-price spikes⁶.

看空对冲基金的投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆担心，向可再生能源的转变会费时又费钱，化石燃料生产投资减少将使能源公司难以增加供应，从而增加能源价格飙升的风险。

All this, the structuralists argue, means the current inflation shock is likely to be the first of many: central bankers will be playing whack-a-mole for a while yet.

结构主义者辩称，这一切意味着，当前的通胀冲击很可能是许多冲击中的第一个：央行官员们还得再打一会儿地鼠。

Recurrent inflation would upend 20 years of portfolio⁷-management strategy.

反复出现的通胀将颠覆20年来的投资组合管理策略。

If the correlation⁸ between stocks and bonds shifts from -0.5 to +0.5 the volatility⁹ of a “60/40” portfolio increases by around 20%.

如果股票和债券之间的相关系数从-0.5变成+0.5，“60/40”投资组合的波动率就会增加20%左右。

In a bid to avoid being wrong-footed once again, investors¹⁰ are updating their plans.

为了避免再次手足无措，投资者正在更新他们的计划。

As Barry Gill of UBS’s asset-management arm puts it, the task is “to realign your portfolio around this new reality”.

正如瑞银资产管理部门的巴里·吉尔所说，要做的任务是“围绕这一新的现实情况重新调整投资组合”。

What assets will allow investors to sleep soundly in this new reality?

什么样的资产才能让投资者在这种新的现实情况下睡得安稳？

Cryptocurrencies once looked like an interesting hedge, but this year they have fallen and risen in lockstep with stocks.

加密货币曾经看起来像是一种有趣的对冲，但今年它们的涨跌与股市同步。

A recent paper by KKR, a private asset-management firm, argues, perhaps unsurprisingly, that illiquid alternatives, like private equity¹¹ and credit, are a good way to diversify¹².

私人资产管理公司KKR最近的一篇论文认为，私募股权和信贷等非流动性的替代选择是扩大业务范围的好方法，这或许并不令人意外。

But that may be an illusion: illiquid assets are rarely marked-to-market, and are exposed to the same underlying¹³ economic forces as stocks and bonds.

但这可能是一种错觉：非流动性资产很少按市值计价，可能受到的经济力量影响还与股票和债券相同。

There are other options.

还有其他选择。

AQR suggests stock-picking strategies where success has little to do with broader economic conditions, such as “long-short” equity investing (going long on one firm and short on another).

AQR建议采用几乎不依靠整体经济状况就能成功的选股策略，例如“多空”股票投资(即做多一家公司，做空另一家公司)。

Meanwhile, commodities are the natural choice for those worried about a disorderly green transition, since a basket of them appears to be uncorrelated with stocks and bonds over long periods.

与此同时，对于那些担心无序绿色转型的人来说，大宗商品是自然而然的选择，因为从长期来看，一篮子大宗商品似乎与股票和债券无关。

In the search for new ways to minimise risk, investors dreaming of high returns will have to get creative.

在寻找将风险降至最低的新方法时，梦想高回报的投资者将必须发挥创造力。

That, at least, should tire them out by the end of the day.

总之，这应该至少会让他们筋疲力尽。

1 formerly   

adv.从前，以前

参考例句：

• We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
• This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。

2 bearish   

adj.(行情)看跌的，卖空的

参考例句：

• It is foolish not to invest in stocks,so I will show her how to be bearish without them too,if she chooses.不投资股票是愚蠢的，因此如果她选择股票，我会向她展示怎样在没有长期潜力的情况下进行卖空。
• I think a bearish market must be a good time for bargain-hunters to invest.我觉得熊市对于想买低的人可是个投资的大好机会。

3 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

4 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

5 ramp   

n.暴怒，斜坡，坡道；vi.作恐吓姿势，暴怒，加速；vt.加速

参考例句：

• That driver drove the car up the ramp.那司机将车开上了斜坡。
• The factory don't have that capacity to ramp up.这家工厂没有能力加速生产。

6 spikes   

n.穗( spike的名词复数 )；跑鞋；（防滑）鞋钉；尖状物v.加烈酒于( spike的第三人称单数 )；偷偷地给某人的饮料加入（更多）酒精（ 或药物）；把尖状物钉入；打乱某人的计划

参考例句：

• a row of iron spikes on a wall 墙头的一排尖铁
• There is a row of spikes on top of the prison wall to prevent the prisoners escaping. 监狱墙头装有一排尖钉，以防犯人逃跑。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

8 correlation   

n.相互关系，相关，关连

参考例句：

• The second group of measurements had a high correlation with the first.第二组测量数据与第一组高度相关。
• A high correlation exists in America between education and economic position.教育和经济地位在美国有极密切的关系。

9 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

10 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

11 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

12 diversify   

v.（使）不同，（使）变得多样化

参考例句：

• Our company is trying to diversify.我们公司正力图往多样化方面发展。
• Hills and woods diversify the landscape.山陵和树木点缀景色。

13 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。