2022年经济学人 通货膨胀：更快、更高、更长(1)

Finance & economics

财经板块

Inflation: Faster, higher, longer

通货膨胀：更快、更高、更长

The Fed delivers another jumbo rate rise, and it’s far from done

美联储再次大幅加息，而这离结束还早着呢

As recently as the start of June investors¹ and analysts² believed that a “jumbo” interest-rate rise for the Federal Reserve meant half a percentage point.

就在6月初，投资者和分析师还认为，0.5个百分点对美联储来说就算是“巨幅”加息了。

How quaint³.

真是老古董。

After four straight increases of three-quarters of a percentage point—the latest on November 2nd—perceptions have changed.

在连续四次加息0.75个百分点(最近一次是在11月2日)之后，他们的看法发生了变化。

Indeed, a stockmarket rally in the two weeks before the announcement was rooted in the belief that the Fed may scale down to a half-point rate increase at its next meeting in December.

事实上，在美联储宣布加息之前的两周里，股市反弹的根源在于人们相信，美联储可能会在12月的下次会议上将加息幅度缩小至半个百分点。

What was once jumbo is now moderate.

曾经的巨幅加息现在变得温和起来。

Whether the Fed will in fact downshift to a half-point increase is a matter for debate.

美联储是否真的会将加息幅度降至0.5个百分点还有待讨论。

Bond pricing assigns roughly even odds⁴ to the central bank opting⁵ for that smaller increment⁶ versus⁷ yet another three-quarter-point increase.

受债券定价影响，央行选择较小幅加息的几率，和选择再次加息0.75个百分点的几率大致相同。

At a news conference following the Fed’s latest move, Jerome Powell, the central bank’s chairman, resisted tipping his hand in either direction.

在美联储最近一次举措后举行的新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔拒绝就任何一个方向进行预测。

And for good reason: inflation figures for both October and November will be published before the Fed’s next meeting, and go a long way to determining what it does.

理由很充分：10月份和11月份的通胀数据都将在美联储下次会议之前公布，而这会对美联储的行动有很大的影响。

There is little sense in guessing the outcome before seeing that data.

所以在看到这些数据之前进行猜测没有什么意义。

But the focus on the size of the rise is also too narrow.

但对涨幅的关注也过于狭隘。

As Mr Powell notes, the Fed’s tightening⁸ of monetary⁹ policy can be looked at in three dimensions: how quickly it raises rates, how high it raises them and how long it then keeps them there.

正如鲍威尔所指出的那样，美联储的收紧货币政策可以从三个维度来考察：加息的速度有多快、加息的幅度有多高以及维持利率的时间有多长。

The first dimension is already clear.

第一个维度已经很清楚了。

Although the Fed was late in launching its rate-rise cycle, it has moved with alacrity¹⁰ since starting, raising short-term borrowing rates from 0% in March to 3.75% now—its most aggressive increase in four decades.

尽管美联储启动加息周期的时间较晚，但它自加息以来一直行动迅速，将短期借款利率从3月份的0%上调至目前的3.75%，这是40年来最激进的加息。

1 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 quaint   

adj.古雅的，离奇有趣的，奇怪的

参考例句：

• There were many small lanes in the quaint village.在这古香古色的村庄里，有很多小巷。
• They still keep some quaint old customs.他们仍然保留着一些稀奇古怪的旧风俗。

4 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

5 opting   

v.选择，挑选( opt的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• What courses are most students opting for? 多数学生选什么课程？ 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Wells doesn't rule out opting out and then re-signing with Houston. 威尔斯没有排除跳出合同再与火箭重签的可能。 来自互联网

6 increment   

n.增值，增价；提薪，增加工资

参考例句：

• Each increment of knowledge tells us more of our world.知识的点滴增长都会增进我们对世界的认知。
• She receives a salary increment each year.她每年得到加薪。

7 versus   

prep.以…为对手，对；与…相比之下

参考例句：

• The big match tonight is England versus Spain.今晚的大赛是英格兰对西班牙。
• The most exciting game was Harvard versus Yale.最富紧张刺激的球赛是哈佛队对耶鲁队。

8 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

9 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

10 alacrity   

n.敏捷，轻快，乐意

参考例句：

• Although the man was very old,he still moved with alacrity.他虽然很老，动作仍很敏捷。
• He accepted my invitation with alacrity.他欣然接受我的邀请。