纽约时报 美联储即将迎来金融危机后的首次降息(1)

Fed Is Closing In On First Rate Cut Since 2008 Crisis.

美联储即将迎来金融危机后的首次降息

By Jeanna Smialek

文/吉安娜·施密亚勒克

The Federal Reserve this week will most likely cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, when the economy was mired¹ in a deep recession,

由于中央银行试图阻止美国一直颇为强劲的经济增长放缓，

as the central bank tries to keep a record economic expansion from petering out.

美联储本周很可能迎来2008年经济陷入严重衰退以来的首次降息。

The expected change, while likely to be small, will end an era of gradual rate increases

预计此次降息幅度不会很大，但仍将终结渐进加息的时代——

intended to return the economy to a more “normal” state in the wake of the Great Recession,

在此之前，为拯救经济，使经历了“大衰退”的美国经济恢复“正常”，

when the Fed slashed² rates to near zero as it tried to rescue the economy.

美联储已将利率降至接近于零的低位。

The Fed’s approach has largely worked —

这一举措大致已经奏效——

the United States economy is growing, unemployment is at a 50-year low and wages are slowly rising.

美国经济已呈增长之势，失业率降至50年来最低水平，工资水平也已徐徐上涨。

But a rate cut at this moment in the cycle sends a signal: The current economy could be as good as it gets.

然而，在当前这样良好的经济形势下降息无异于释放了这样一个信号：当前经济或已触顶。

The Fed’s move on Wednesday may cheer President Trump³,

美联储周三的这一举措或许能令特朗普总统感到些许快慰，

who has jawboned the central bank for a year over its 2018 rate increases,

因央行2018年加息一事，这一年来，特朗普一直在对央行施压，

saying the economy would have gone up “like a rocket” had the Fed not gotten it wrong.

声称若不是美联储犯了错，美国经济会“像火箭一样”腾飞。

“The Fed acted too soon. I turned out to be right, they acted too soon and too violently,”

“美联储加息加得太仓促了。事实证明我是对的，他们确实过于仓促，过于猛烈了，”

Mr. Trump said on Friday at the White House.

特朗普周五在白宫说道。

But the Fed, which operates independently of the White House, is likely to make a move driven by precaution, not politics,

然而，运作独立于白宫的美联储采取这一行动的考量可能是为了预防而非政治因素，

as it tries to inoculate⁴ the economy against the harmful effects of slowing global growth and Mr. Trump’s trade war.

因其试图令美国经济免受世界经济增长放缓和特朗普贸易战的不利影响。

While the United States economy continues to chug along, cracks are beginning to show.

尽管美国经济当下依然强劲，裂痕已经开始显现。

Manufacturing gauges⁵, which often lead the rest of the economy, are slumping⁶ across the world.

就全球范围来看，生产指标，通常带动着其他经济部门，都已陷入衰退。

Business investment and confidence have suffered under Mr. Trump’s trade spats⁷ and tariffs⁸.

商业投资和市场信心纷纷受到了特朗普的贸易争端和关税政策的冲击。

A potent⁹ recession indicator¹⁰ is flashing red — rates on 10-year bonds have been lower than those on 3-month government securities,

强有力的经济衰退指标已经亮起红灯——10年期国债的利率一直低于3月期国债的利率，

a sign that investors¹¹ are pessimistic about the future.

表明投资者并不看好美国经济的未来。

The effect of Mr. Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax cut is waning¹² and businesses report that they are holding off on expanding,

特朗普签署的1.5万亿美元的减税法案的效力正在衰减，各企业纷纷报告他们已推迟扩张，

in part because of concern about global economic growth and a protracted¹³ trade dispute between the United States and China.

部分原因在于对全球经济增长的担忧以及美国和中国之间旷日持久的贸易争端。

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy,

周五公布的数据显示，国内生产总值(GDP)——衡量一个经济体生产的商品和服务价值总和最广泛的指标——

rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, according to data released on Friday.

第二季度增速为2.1%。

That is a decent pace, but it shows the economy is reverting¹⁴ to normal after a 3.1 percent growth rate in the first quarter.

这一增速还算强劲，但也表明美国经济已从第一季度3.1%的增速恢复正常。

Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has been signaling a possible rate cut,

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一直在暗示可能降息，

telling lawmakers this month that “the uncertainties¹⁵ around global growth and trade continue to weigh on the outlook”

本月早些时候，他对议员们表示，“全球增长和贸易的不确定性依然笼罩着我国经济的前景，”

and that the Fed would act as needed to sustain the economic expansion.

美联储将采取必要的行动维持经济的继续扩张。

Anticipation¹⁶ of a cut may already be providing a slight economic jolt¹⁷ by lowering consumer interest rates and sending stocks soaring,

对降息的预期或已推动美国经济出现轻微提振，在降低消费利率的同时刺激了股市的大涨，

giving companies more reason to invest and consumers an extra nudge to buy a house or a car.

为企业提供了更充分的投资理由的同时赋予了消费者更大的购车购房动力。

1 mired   

abbr.microreciprocal degree 迈尔德（色温单位）v.深陷( mire的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The country was mired in recession. 这个国家陷入了经济衰退的困境。
• The most brilliant leadership can be mired in detail. 最有才干的领导也会陷于拘泥琐事的困境中。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

2 slashed   

v.挥砍( slash的过去式和过去分词 )；鞭打；割破；削减

参考例句：

• Someone had slashed the tyres on my car. 有人把我的汽车轮胎割破了。
• He slashed the bark off the tree with his knife. 他用刀把树皮从树上砍下。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

4 inoculate   

v.给...接种，给...注射疫苗

参考例句：

• A corps of doctors arrived to inoculate the recruits.一队医生来给新兵打防疫针。
• I was just meant to come out here and inoculate some wee babies.我是过来这边给小孩子们接种疫苗的。

5 gauges   

n.规格( gauge的名词复数 )；厚度；宽度；标准尺寸v.（用仪器）测量( gauge的第三人称单数 )；估计；计量；划分

参考例句：

• A thermometer gauges the temperature. 温度计可测量温度。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The fuel gauges dropped swiftly. 燃料表指针迅速下降。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 slumping   

大幅度下降，暴跌( slump的现在分词 )； 沉重或突然地落下[倒下]

参考例句：

• Hong Kong's slumping economy also caused a rise in bankruptcy applications. 香港经济低迷，破产申请个案随之上升。
• And as with slumping, over-arching can also be a simple postural habit. 就像弯腰驼背，过度挺直也可能只是一种习惯性姿势。

7 spats   

n.口角( spat的名词复数 )；小争吵；鞋罩；鞋套v.spit的过去式和过去分词( spat的第三人称单数 )；口角；小争吵；鞋罩

参考例句：

• Gasoline is a solvent liquid that removes grease spats. 汽油是一种能脱去油迹的有溶解能力的液体。 来自辞典例句
• Then spats took a catnap, and the bird looked out for dogs. 然后斯派茨小睡了一会儿。小鸟为它站岗放哨，防止狗跑过来。 来自互联网

8 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

9 potent   

adj.强有力的，有权势的；有效力的

参考例句：

• The medicine had a potent effect on your disease.这药物对你的病疗效很大。
• We must account of his potent influence.我们必须考虑他的强有力的影响。

10 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

11 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

12 waning   

adj.（月亮）渐亏的，逐渐减弱或变小的n.月亏v.衰落( wane的现在分词 )；（月）亏；变小；变暗淡

参考例句：

• Her enthusiasm for the whole idea was waning rapidly. 她对整个想法的热情迅速冷淡了下来。
• The day is waning and the road is ending. 日暮途穷。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

13 protracted   

adj.拖延的；延长的v.拖延“protract”的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The war was protracted for four years. 战争拖延了四年。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• We won victory through protracted struggle. 经过长期的斗争，我们取得了胜利。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 reverting   

恢复( revert的现在分词 )； 重提； 回到…上； 归还

参考例句：

• The boss came back from holiday all relaxed and smiling, but now he's reverting to type. 老板刚度假回来时十分随和，满面笑容，现在又恢复原样了。
• The conversation kept reverting to the subject of money. 谈话的内容总是离不开钱的事。

15 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

16 anticipation   

n.预期，预料，期望

参考例句：

• We waited at the station in anticipation of her arrival.我们在车站等着，期待她的到来。
• The animals grew restless as if in anticipation of an earthquake.各种动物都变得焦躁不安，像是感到了地震即将发生。

17 jolt   

v.（使）摇动，（使）震动，（使）颠簸

参考例句：

• We were worried that one tiny jolt could worsen her injuries.我们担心稍微颠簸一下就可能会使她的伤势恶化。
• They were working frantically in the fear that an aftershock would jolt the house again.他们拼命地干着，担心余震可能会使房子再次受到震动。