时代周刊:中美之间的一场意志较量(2)

On April 2, we saw China’s first response:

4月2日，我们看到了中国的第一轮反应:

tariffs² on 128 goods from the U.S. worth $3 billion, with the threat of more to come,

宣布对来自美国的128种，总价值30亿美元的商品征收关税，还威胁说后续还会有更多关税，

as a reply to the initial steel and aluminum³ gambit.

作为对当初美国针对中国征收钢铝关税的回应。

The proportionate response from Beijing signaled

北京方面的相应回应表明，

that China doesn’t want a fight but won’t back down if Trump⁴ escalates⁵.

中国无意挑起纷争，但如果特朗普得寸进尺，中国就绝不退缩。

On April 3, the Trump Administration revealed its list

4月3日，特朗普政府公布了

of recommended Chinese products to target in his broader tariff¹ proposal–including more than 1,300 of them.

特朗普广泛征税的提案中他建议征税的中国产品清单——共计1300多种。

On April 4, China sharply upped the stakes, with tariffs on U.S. goods worth about $50 billion.

4月4日，中国加大了赌注，将征收关税的美国商品规模提高到了500亿美元。

There is a risk of further escalation⁶,

时态还可能进一步恶化，

because both sides believe they hold the stronger hand.

因为双方都认为占上风的是自己一方。

Trump knows that China’s economy is susceptible⁷ to trade action,

特朗普知道，中国的经济很容易受到贸易方面的牵制，

since it depends on it more than the U.S. does.

因为它比美国更依赖贸易。

According to the World Bank, 37% of China’s GDP comes from trade–

世界银行的数据显示，中国37%的GDP都来自贸易——

though that’s down from more than 65% in 2006–vs. 27% for the U.S.

尽管这一比例比2006年的65%已经有所下降，而美国的GDP只有27%来自贸易。

That creates a vulnerability for China.

这给中国造成了一个软肋。

But Trump is more politically vulnerable than Xi.

但特朗普在政治上比习脆弱。

It’s not an accident that among the U.S. goods targeted by China are ginseng and pork,

中国这次将征税矛头对准人参和猪肉之类的商品并非偶然，

products that will hurt farmers and business owners in states like Wisconsin and Iowa,

因为这些产品会影响到威斯康辛州和爱荷华州的农民和企业主，

which are essential for Trump’s re-election bid in 2020.

而这群人对特朗普2020年的连任竞选有着至关重要的作用。

Trump will hear more public criticism for these moves than Xi will.

这些举措给特朗普带来的民众批评之声势必盖过给习带来的批评之声。

There are no swing states in China.

因为中国没有民意摇摆不定的“摇摆州”。

Beijing’s second round of tariffs targets many U.S. goods,

北京的第二轮关税将矛头对准了更多的美国商品，

including cars, orange juice and soybeans–a product that accounts for trade worth $14 billion per year.

比如汽车、橙汁和大豆——这些产品每年给美国带来的贸易额高达140亿美元。

This will have an even greater pocketbook effect on Trump’s base.

这一举措将从财政上进一步撼动特朗普的根基。

And this is just the beginning.

而这还仅仅是个开始。

Trump wants U.S. companies to have greater access to China’s vast marketplace.

川普希望美国的企业能够更多地进入中国这个巨大的市场。

He wants a much lower trade deficit–and a political win.

他想要降低赤字——同时夺取政治胜利。

China needs access to the technologies that can help its economy make the leap

而中国需要从制造业巨头到尖端工业创造者那里

from manufacturing powerhouse to cutting-edge creator of industries

获得能够帮助其经济实现飞跃的技术，

and jobs that flow from advances in artificial intelligence, robotics and advanced microchips.

需要人工智能、机器人技术和先进微芯片的发展带来的就业机会。

The U.S. may win some concessions⁸ on market access,

美国在市场准入方面或许能赢得一些让步，

but China won’t end the practice of forcing U.S. companies to share technology as the price of admission.

但中国不会结束强迫美国公司以分享技术作为准入条件的做法。

Whatever happens next, it’s clear that the Mar-a-Lago moment is long gone.

无论接下来发生什么，很明显，马阿拉戈庄园里的那个时刻早已经一去不复返了。

1 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

2 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

3 aluminum   

n.(aluminium)铝

参考例句：

• The aluminum sheets cannot be too much thicker than 0.04 inches.铝板厚度不能超过0.04英寸。
• During the launch phase,it would ride in a protective aluminum shell.在发射阶段，它盛在一只保护的铝壳里。

4 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

5 escalates   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的第三人称单数 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• As the challenge escalates, the need for teamwork elevates. 面临的挑战越大，越需要团队协同合作。 来自互联网
• I cannot understand why a minor disagreement escalates into a fist-fight. 我真不明白为什么一点意见不合就变成了拳头相见。 来自互联网

6 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

7 susceptible   

adj.过敏的，敏感的；易动感情的，易受感动的

参考例句：

• Children are more susceptible than adults.孩子比成人易受感动。
• We are all susceptible to advertising.我们都易受广告的影响。

8 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。