时代周刊:伊朗核协议并没有彻底作废

Now the risk report by Ian Bremmer

下面是伊恩·布雷默供稿的“风险报告”

The aftershock across the globe

余震波及全世界

THE IRAN DEAL ISN’T dead yet.

伊朗核协议并没有彻底作废。

The rest of the signatories (Germany, France, the U.K., Russia, China and the E.U.) have vowed¹ to uphold the terms of the 2015 agreement.

（除美国外的）其他签署方(德国、法国、英国、俄罗斯、中国和欧盟）都坚称会拥护2015年达成的伊朗核协议的规定。

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has signaled a desire to do the same.

伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼也表达了同样的愿望。

And so President Donald Trump²’s decision may become the latest proof that we now live in a post–Pax Americana world—

如此一来，唐纳德·特朗普总统的决定或许就成了最新的证据，表明我们现在处在一个“后美国治世”的时代——

one in which the U.S. perhaps doesn’t play a lead role but a participatory one.

一个美国在世界舞台上发挥的不再是主导作用而是参与作用的时代。

There is a growing divide between the U.S. and Europe,

美国和欧洲之间的分歧已经越来越大，

where leaders were already incensed³ that Trump has

此前，在钢铁和铝产品上特朗普只给了欧盟暂时的豁免，

offered only temporary exemptions⁴ on the steel and aluminum⁵ tariffs⁶ that the U.S. is threatening to impose on the E.U.

现在，他威胁要开始对欧盟征收关税了，他的这一举措激怒了欧洲的领导人们。

After Trump’s Iran announcement, the U.K., France and Germany issued a joint⁷ statement that expressed regret and concern.

特朗普宣布推出伊朗核协议后，美法德三国发表了联合声明表示遗憾和关切。

French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to keep the deal alive by pursuing a “broader framework” that addresses not just nuclear activity

法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙试图通过促成一个不仅针对核问题，

but also Iran’s missile program and its activities in Syria, Yemen and Iraq.

还针对伊朗的导弹项目及其在叙利亚、也门和伊拉克的活动的“更广泛的框架”来挽救这一协议。

But it’s hard to see how he can convince Trump that Iran will no longer be “the leading state sponsor of terror,” as Trump described it.

但很难看到他会如何说服川普相信伊朗将不再是他所谓的“扶植恐怖主义的头号国家”。

In the Middle East, the initial impact has already been felt.

中东已经初步感受到了特朗普退出伊朗核协议的影响。

Israel immediately deployed⁸ airstrikes in Syria, and more conflict is now a real risk.

以色列立即在叙利亚部署了空袭，日益增多的冲突如今已经成了真正的风险。

Both Israel and Saudi Arabia, confident in their support from Trump, will answer each perceived Iranian act of aggression⁹.

自信有特朗普撑腰的以色列和沙特表示，伊朗的每一次挑衅，他们都会奉陪。

Worse still, if Iran decides the deal is indeed dead,

更糟糕的是，伊朗要是认定该协议确实已作废，

it will kick out International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors¹⁰ and begin enriching uranium.

就会遣散国际原子能机构的监察人员，重新开始浓缩铀。

If you’re worried that Iran is determined¹¹ to get a nuclear weapon, it’s better to have the inspectors inside the country.

如果你担心伊朗已经决定制造核武器了，那你最好派些监察人员到伊朗去。

Concerns also exist stateside.

美国国内也存在担忧。

The price of oil already reached a three-year high on the speculation¹² that Trump was preparing to abandon the nuclear deal.

由于外界猜测特朗普准备退出核协议，石油价格已经涨到了三年来的最高水平。

As U.S. sanctions come back into force, Iran’s oil production will take a hit, as will the world’s supply of the critical commodity.

随着美国对伊朗的制裁重新生效，伊朗的石油生产将会受到影响，石油这种极为重要的大宗商品在全球的供应也将受到影响。

If a spike¹³ in oil prices pushes gas prices higher,

如果油价飙升带动天然气价格上涨，

there will be political repercussions¹⁴ for Trump and his allies—just in time for the summer driving season and then the midterm elections.

特朗普及其盟友的政绩就会受到影响——而且正好撞上夏季驾车高峰和中期选举。

The President has not offered an alternative plan to thwart¹⁵ Iran’s nuclear development.

目前，特朗普总统还没有提出阻止伊朗继续发展核武器的其他方案。

Perhaps Iran’s faltering¹⁶ economy will doom¹⁷ the regime.

或许，伊朗那摇摇欲坠的经济自己就会将伊朗政府推入深渊。

Or maybe the Trump Administration will respond to perceived provocation¹⁸ with military strikes.

又或许，特朗普政府会以军事打击还击挑衅。

Whatever the strategy, the world may have just become an even more volatile¹⁹ place.

但无论他们采取何种战略，这个世界可能都已经愈加动荡了。

1 vowed   

起誓，发誓（vow的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• He vowed quite solemnly that he would carry out his promise. 他非常庄严地发誓要实现他的诺言。
• I vowed to do more of the cooking myself. 我发誓自己要多动手做饭。

2 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

3 incensed   

盛怒的

参考例句：

• The decision incensed the workforce. 这个决定激怒了劳工大众。
• They were incensed at the decision. 他们被这个决定激怒了。

4 exemptions   

n.（义务等的）免除( exemption的名词复数 )；免（税）；（收入中的）免税额

参考例句：

• The exemptions for interpretive rules, policy statements, and procedural rules have just been discussed. 有关解释性规则、政策说明和程序规则的免责我们刚刚讨论过。 来自英汉非文学 - 行政法
• A: The regulation outlines specific exemptions for some WPM. 答：该规定概述了某些木质包装材料的特定的例外情形。 来自互联网

5 aluminum   

n.(aluminium)铝

参考例句：

• The aluminum sheets cannot be too much thicker than 0.04 inches.铝板厚度不能超过0.04英寸。
• During the launch phase,it would ride in a protective aluminum shell.在发射阶段，它盛在一只保护的铝壳里。

6 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

7 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

8 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

9 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。

10 inspectors   

n.检查员( inspector的名词复数 )；（英国公共汽车或火车上的）查票员；（警察）巡官；检阅官

参考例句：

• They got into the school in the guise of inspectors. 他们假装成视察员进了学校。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Inspectors checked that there was adequate ventilation. 检查员已检查过，通风良好。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

12 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

13 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

14 repercussions   

n.后果，反响( repercussion的名词复数 )；余波

参考例句：

• The collapse of the company will have repercussions for the whole industry. 这家公司的垮台将会给整个行业造成间接的负面影响。
• Human acts have repercussions far beyond the frontiers of the human world. 人类行为所产生的影响远远超出人类世界的范围。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 thwart   

v.阻挠，妨碍，反对；adj.横(断的)

参考例句：

• We must thwart his malevolent schemes.我们决不能让他的恶毒阴谋得逞。
• I don't think that will thwart our purposes.我认为那不会使我们的目的受到挫折。

16 faltering   

犹豫的，支吾的，蹒跚的

参考例句：

• The economy shows no signs of faltering. 经济没有衰退的迹象。
• I canfeel my legs faltering. 我感到我的腿在颤抖。

17 doom   

n.厄运，劫数；v.注定，命定

参考例句：

• The report on our economic situation is full of doom and gloom.这份关于我们经济状况的报告充满了令人绝望和沮丧的调子。
• The dictator met his doom after ten years of rule.独裁者统治了十年终于完蛋了。

18 provocation   

n.激怒，刺激，挑拨，挑衅的事物，激怒的原因

参考例句：

• He's got a fiery temper and flares up at the slightest provocation.他是火爆性子，一点就着。
• They did not react to this provocation.他们对这一挑衅未作反应。

19 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。