时代周刊:特朗普下台是伊朗唯一的希望

Iran is left with few strategic options after Trump¹’s bold move

特朗普大胆采取行动，伊朗左右为难

Scoring legitimate² foreign-policy wins has not been easy for U.S. President Donald Trump, Twitter proclamations notwithstanding.

对美国总统特朗普而言，在外交政策上赢得合法胜利并非易事，尽管从推特上来看并非如此。

But he’s just notched³ his biggest one yet against Iran.

但他近日还是赢得了迄今为止针对伊朗的最大一次胜利。

Since Trump decided⁴ to pull out of the Joint⁵ Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),

特朗普决定退出《关于伊朗核计划的全面协议》(JCPOA)后，

Iran has been careful to take only incremental⁶ steps away from the hard-fought nuclear deal

伊朗在脱离这一艰难达成的协议时一直颇为谨慎，仅采取循序渐进的方式，

in hopes that the other signatories would salvage⁷ it, but to no avail.

希望其他签署国能挽救这一协议，但仍无济于事。

Since then, Iran has spent the better part of a year testing U.S. limits.

于是，接下来的大半年伊朗转向了试探美国的底线。

Cyberattacks. Harassing⁸ tankers⁹. Shooting U.S. drones. Hitting Saudi oil facilities.

网络攻击，骚扰游轮，击落美国的无人机，袭击沙特的采油设备。

The U.S. response to all these has been notably¹⁰ restrained, at times infuriatingly so from the perspective of allies.

每次美国的反应都相当克制，在盟友看来有时甚至克制地令人发指。

When the U.S. finally did respond with the shock escalation¹¹ and assassination¹² of Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force,

最后，美国终于加大突袭力度，暗杀了"圣城旅”指挥官卡西姆·索莱马尼少将，

it sent a clear message to Iran that the U.S. was done being cautious.

便是在向伊朗发射明确的信号：美国已经谨慎够了。

Trump has argued in the past that his at-times erratic¹³ approach is to his advantage:

过去，特朗普曾辩称，他有时采取反复无常的策略恰好也是他的优势：

“I don’t want people to know exactly what I’m doing—or thinking. I like being unpredictable. It keeps them off balance.”

“我不想让别人确切地知道我在做什么或想什么。我喜欢让人摸不透。这样他们就会自乱阵脚。”

In a world as chaotic¹⁴ as ours,

在我们这样混乱的社会，

it’s a questionable¹⁵ strategy (especially when it comes to dealing¹⁶ with our allies) but one that has paid dividends¹⁷ in this case.

这样的策略确实未必可靠（尤其是在与我们的盟友打交道的时候）但这一次还是收到了一定的成效。

Had Iran not shot down Ukraine International Airlines flight 752,

如果伊朗没有击落乌克兰国际航空公司的752次航班，

it’s possible the rest of the world would be applauding Iran for its attempt to de-escalate tensions

国际社会或许就会称赞伊朗缓解紧张局势的做法，

by shooting missiles into two U.S. military bases in Iraq

包括往伊拉克境内的两个美军基地发射导弹，

and giving enough warning to ensure zero fatalities¹⁸ (though a few U.S. troops were wounded).

为确保零伤亡（尽管还是有几名美军受伤）给予基地足够警告的做法。

But as it is, the Iranians’ misfire cost them any goodwill¹⁹ that the world was willing to spare Tehran’s regime.

然而眼下，伊朗的误伤让他们失去了国际社会放过德黑兰政权一马的任何好感。

Iran is now under massive pressure, from within and without.

从国内到国外，伊朗现在都面临着巨大的压力。

The Iranian people are suffering under tightening²⁰ sanctions that have brought the country’s teetering economy to its knees.

日益严厉的制裁让这个国家本就摇摇欲坠的经济彻底被逼停，伊朗民众为此饱受其苦。

The European signatories to the deal, while still hoping it can be salvaged²¹ in some way,

签署伊朗核协议的欧洲国家，尽管仍然希望能用某种方式挽救这一协议，

are increasingly reluctant to spend their own political capital

已经越来越不愿意将他们的政治资本花在疑似和美国一样坚决，

for an Iranian leadership that seems just as determined²² as the U.S. to force the world to choose sides, even at the cost of civilian²³ lives.

即便要以平民的生命为代价，也要迫使国际社会选择立场的伊朗领导层身上。

Germany, France and the U.K. have now triggered the dispute-resolution mechanism²⁴ written into the JCPOA,

德国、法国和英国已经启动写入了JCPOA的争端解决机制，

a clear signal to Iran that they are no longer willing to let Tehran inch closer to a nuclear weapon

这就等于向伊朗释放了一个清晰的信号，在等2020年大选到来，希望美国民众能投票支持特朗普下台期间，

while they wait for the 2020 election and hope the American people vote Trump out of office.

他们已经不愿德黑兰向核武器进一步靠近。

At this point, waiting out Trump is the only hope Tehran has left.

此时此刻，等特朗普下台已经成了德黑兰唯一的希望。

If Trump wins another term, it will be near impossible for Tehran to avoid renegotiating the nuclear deal if it wishes to escape sanctions.

如果特朗普连任成功，德黑兰要想逃脱制裁，就几乎不可能避开重新协商核协议。

But given just how large the divide between the country’s hard-liners and reformists has become, that’s a tall order.

然而，鉴于该国强硬派和改革派之间的分歧已经如此强烈，重新谈判是一个很高的要求。

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s becoming clear that the biggest mistake Iran’s reformists made wasn’t signing the JCPOA,

事后看来，很明显，伊朗的改革派犯下的最严重的错误并非签订了JCPOA，

but overselling the benefits of that deal to the public

而在于向公众夸大这笔交易的好处

(a criticism that can also be lodged²⁵ against the Obama Administration, if we’re being honest).

（这一批评也适用于奥巴马政府，平心而论的话）。

A diplomatic breakthrough never came for Tehran, nor the economic revitalization that was promised them.

对德黑兰而言，外交上的突破至今没有，承诺给他们的经济振兴也未到来。

Achieving foreign-policy breakthroughs is hard enough.

取得外交政策的突破就已经够难的了。

Overpromising and underdelivering on those breakthroughs can be a tragic²⁶ mistake—

过度承诺这样的突破还履行不足就会演变成悲剧性的错误——

a lesson that Iran’s leadership, America’s and the rest of the world’s leaders would do well to heed²⁷.

伊朗，美国，甚至是全世界的领导人都应该吸取这一教训。

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 legitimate   

adj.合法的，合理的，合乎逻辑的；v.使合法

参考例句：

• Sickness is a legitimate reason for asking for leave.生病是请假的一个正当的理由。
• That's a perfectly legitimate fear.怀有这种恐惧完全在情理之中。

3 notched   

a.有凹口的，有缺口的

参考例句：

• Torino notched up a 2-1 win at Lazio. 都灵队以2 比1 赢了拉齐奧队。
• He notched up ten points in the first five minutes of the game. 他在比赛开始后的五分钟里得了十分。

4 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

5 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

6 incremental   

adj.增加的

参考例句：

• For logic devices, the incremental current gain is very important. 对于逻辑器件来说，提高电流增益是非常重要的。 来自辞典例句
• By using an incremental approach, the problems involving material or geometric nonlinearity have been solved. 借应用一种增量方法，已经解决了包括材料的或几何的非线性问题。 来自辞典例句

7 salvage   

v.救助，营救，援救；n.救助，营救

参考例句：

• All attempts to salvage the wrecked ship failed.抢救失事船只的一切努力都失败了。
• The salvage was piled upon the pier.抢救出的财产被堆放在码头上。

8 harassing   

v.侵扰，骚扰( harass的现在分词 )；不断攻击（敌人）

参考例句：

• The court ordered him to stop harassing his ex-wife. 法庭命令他不得再骚扰前妻。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• It was too close to be merely harassing fire. 打得这么近，不能完全是扰乱射击。 来自辞典例句

9 tankers   

运送大量液体或气体的轮船[卡车]( tanker的名词复数 )； 油轮； 罐车； 油槽车

参考例句：

• They should stop offloading waste from oil tankers into the sea. 他们应当停止从油轮上往海里倾倒废弃物。
• The harbour admits large tankers and freighters. 这个港口容得下巨型油船和货轮。

10 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

11 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

12 assassination   

n.暗杀；暗杀事件

参考例句：

• The assassination of the president brought matters to a head.总统遭暗杀使事态到了严重关头。
• Lincoln's assassination in 1865 shocked the whole nation.1865年，林肯遇刺事件震惊全美国。

13 erratic   

adj.古怪的，反复无常的，不稳定的

参考例句：

• The old man had always been cranky and erratic.那老头儿性情古怪,反复无常。
• The erratic fluctuation of market prices is in consequence of unstable economy.经济波动致使市场物价忽起忽落。

14 chaotic   

adj.混沌的，一片混乱的，一团糟的

参考例句：

• Things have been getting chaotic in the office recently.最近办公室的情况越来越乱了。
• The traffic in the city was chaotic.这城市的交通糟透了。

15 questionable   

adj.可疑的，有问题的

参考例句：

• There are still a few questionable points in the case.这个案件还有几个疑点。
• Your argument is based on a set of questionable assumptions.你的论证建立在一套有问题的假设上。

16 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

17 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

18 fatalities   

n.恶性事故( fatality的名词复数 )；死亡；致命性；命运

参考例句：

• Several people were injured, but there were no fatalities. 有几个人受伤，但没有人死亡。
• The accident resulted in fatalities. 那宗意外道致多人死亡。 来自《简明英汉词典》

19 goodwill   

n.善意，亲善，信誉，声誉

参考例句：

• His heart is full of goodwill to all men.他心里对所有人都充满着爱心。
• We paid ￡10,000 for the shop,and ￡2000 for its goodwill.我们用一万英镑买下了这家商店，两千英镑买下了它的信誉。

20 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

21 salvaged   

（从火灾、海难等中）抢救（某物）( salvage的过去式和过去分词 )； 回收利用（某物）

参考例句：

• The investigators studied flight recorders salvaged from the wreckage. 调查者研究了从飞机残骸中找到的黑匣子。
• The team's first task was to decide what equipment could be salvaged. 该队的首要任务是决定可以抢救哪些设备。

22 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

23 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

24 mechanism   

n.机械装置；机构，结构

参考例句：

• The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
• The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。

25 lodged   

v.存放( lodge的过去式和过去分词 )；暂住；埋入；（权利、权威等）归属

参考例句：

• The certificate will have to be lodged at the registry. 证书必须存放在登记处。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Our neighbours lodged a complaint against us with the police. 我们的邻居向警方控告我们。 来自《简明英汉词典》

26 tragic   

adj.悲剧的，悲剧性的，悲惨的

参考例句：

• The effect of the pollution on the beaches is absolutely tragic.污染海滩后果可悲。
• Charles was a man doomed to tragic issues.查理是个注定不得善终的人。

27 heed   

v.注意，留意；n.注意，留心

参考例句：

• You must take heed of what he has told.你要注意他所告诉的事。
• For the first time he had to pay heed to his appearance.这是他第一次非得注意自己的外表不可了。