商业报道:谁来为美国买单?

We know the fact is of a $438,000,000 deficit¹ this year and the rest is sort of speculative², but, but can you see the US getting into a trillion dollar market and if so, how?

Well, we’re, we’re obviously heading into a very difficult time for the US economically. You are gonna see a drop in tax receipts, you are gonna see, uh, pressure on the government to use money that’s already been used to bailout Wall Street to help other, other constituencies in the US who’re also gonna be facing troubles. So if possible that we could see these numbers in fact…uh...

Get to those sort of level

Get to those levels

I mean is the US of the opinion like most of the rest of the world, the best way to tackle a recession now is to spend very freely, the so called Keynesian Economic Theory.

I think they are gonna have their hands tied, I mean you can spend a certain amount but on the other hand, already we’ve got a massive budget deficit, we’ve got a huge amount of money that the US owes the rest of the world. So they can only go so far in trying to spend their way out of this recession.

Ok. So as you point out, the US already owes the rest of the world a huge amount of money. There’s a ten-trillion-dollar national debt. Perhaps up to a trillion dollars coming up. The government will finance that by selling basically treasuries⁴ to other countries. Why should those other countries buy them?

Well, of course, the US is gonna be turning to the same usual suspects who have been buying US debt in the past. That’s gonna be China, Japan, investors⁵ in the Middle East. And the problem for them is that they are already on the hook for a lot of US debt they have purchased in the past. And so they face, what some people have called “the financial balance of terror”. If you decide that you are not gonna buy, US debt going forward, you risk shooting yourself in the foot by devaluing the securities that you already own. So in a sense you need to keep buying in order to keep your portfolio⁶ valuable for the future. On the other hand, the question may be at what price, what yield does the US government have to offer in order to attract these investors to continue financing the US deficit.

Do you think there is a growing concern though in the international community, a government level, that after they’ve heard the president say I will half the national debt by the time I leave office and in fact it’s going completely the other way, it’s now a record deficit and ballooning, that the rest of the world loses their faith in the US government’s ability to manage its own finances. So therefore they are gonna be saying we don’t wanna go near this.

Sure there is a, there is a real question of confidence that the government is gonna be facing, the new administration is gonna be facing when it comes into office and that will be a matter for the administration to address in terms of trying to bolster⁷ the confidence of investors, and in fact you have a new attitude, you have a resolution to try and address this. Nobody expects that the deficit is gonna to be balanced or addressed short-term because of the recession, but longer term, if people see and or at least have faith that the US is taking the right steps to address this longer term then that may that may do something to address some of these concerns.

You talk about that sort of balance of year, that balance of fear, that if they stop buying it, the value of the US dollar will come down. But all the same countries like China and Japan have the bulk of their overseas foreign reserves in these US treasuries, 90% maybe, maybe a bit less. But isn’t it removed to bounce , why don’t they buy euros, why don’t they buy yen⁸, why do they keep wanting to buy the US dollar if there are so many problems associated with US dollar.

There have been discussions about this in the past and every once in a while you see a comment that suggests that China or Japan might be looking to diversify⁹ their exposure and opt¹⁰ to buying of euros or other currencies, and I doubt that you will see that go away. However on the other hand, what you’ve seen now with the financial crisis reaching Europe and the problems there and the need for governments to go in and bail³ out the banking¹¹ system there with Europe now in a recession and possibly getting into a very serious one in the next year. What that says is that Europe may not necessarily be as much of a safer bet than the dollar

Bet them at what you know

Right.

1 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

2 speculative   

adj.思索性的，暝想性的，推理的

参考例句：

• Much of our information is speculative.我们的许多信息是带推测性的。
• The report is highly speculative and should be ignored.那个报道推测的成分很大，不应理会。

3 bail   

v.舀（水），保释；n.保证金，保释，保释人

参考例句：

• One of the prisoner's friends offered to bail him out.犯人的一个朋友答应保释他出来。
• She has been granted conditional bail.她被准予有条件保释。

4 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

5 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

6 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

7 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

8 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

9 diversify   

v.（使）不同，（使）变得多样化

参考例句：

• Our company is trying to diversify.我们公司正力图往多样化方面发展。
• Hills and woods diversify the landscape.山陵和树木点缀景色。

10 opt   

vi.选择，决定做某事

参考例句：

• They opt for more holiday instead of more pay.他们选择了延长假期而不是增加工资。
• Will individual schools be given the right to opt out of the local school authority?各个学校可能有权选择退出地方教育局吗？

11 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。