英国卫报:你还在相信统计数据吗?(10)

Consider the changing political and economic geography of nation states over the past 40 years. The statistics that dominate political debate are largely national in character: poverty levels, unemployment, GDP, net migration¹. But the geography of capitalism² has been pulling in somewhat different directions. Plainly globalisation has not rendered geography irrelevant³. In many cases it has made the location of economic activity far more important, exacerbating⁴ the inequality between successful locations (such as London or San Francisco) and less successful locations (such as north-east England or the US rust⁵ belt). The key geographic⁶ units involved are no longer nation states. Rather, it is cities, regions or individual urban neighbourhoods that are rising and falling.

想想过去40年里各民族国家政治和经济地理的变化。在政治辩论中占主导地位的统计数据在很大程度上是全国性的：贫困水平、失业率、GDP、净移民。但资本主义的地理位置却在向不同的方向发展，显然，全球化并没有让地理位置变得无关紧要，很多情况下它反而加大了位置在经济活动中的重要性，加剧了成功地区(如伦敦或旧金山)和欠成功地区(如英格兰东北部或美国“锈带”地区)之间的不平等。其中所涉及的主要地理单位也不再是民族国家，而是那些兴衰起伏的城市、地区或者单个城市社区。

The Enlightenment ideal of the nation as a single community, bound together by a common measurement framework, is harder and harder to sustain. If you live in one of the towns in the Welsh valleys that was once dependent on steel manufacturing or mining for jobs, politicians talking of how "the economy" is "doing well" are likely to breed additional resentment⁷. From that standpoint, the term "GDP" fails to capture anything meaningful or credible⁸.

启蒙运动理想中的国家是一个由共同度量框架连接在一起的单一社区，而这种理想越来越难以维持。威尔士山谷里的城镇曾经依靠钢铁制造业和采矿业供人们谋生，如果你住在那里的一个城镇上，谈论“经济”如何“表现良好”的政治家可能会招致更多不满。从这一点来看，“GDP”一词并不能准确反映任何有意义或可信的东西。

When macroeconomics is used to make a political argument, this implies that the losses in one part of the country are offset⁹ by gains somewhere else. Headline-grabbing national indicators¹⁰, such as GDP and inflation, conceal¹¹ all sorts of localised gains and losses that are less commonly discussed by national politicians. Immigration may be good for the economy overall, but this does not mean that there are no local costs at all. So when politicians use national indicators to make their case, they implicitly¹² assume some spirit of patriotic¹³ mutual¹⁴ sacrifice on the part of voters: you might be the loser on this occasion, but next time you might be the beneficiary. But what if the tables are never turned? What if the same city or region wins over and over again, while others always lose? On what principle of give and take is that justified¹⁵?

当宏观经济学被用来进行政治辩论时，说明这个国家某一地区的损失和其它地方的收益中和了。花里胡哨的国家指标(比如GDP和通胀)掩盖了各国政客不常讨论的局部收益和损失。移民从整体上来说可能有益，但并不是说不需要付出丝毫代价。当政客们用国家指标来证明自己的论点时，他们含蓄地假定选民都是爱国的，都有某种相互奉献的精神：这次可能是受损方，下次可能就是受益方。但是，如果形势从未逆转呢？如果每次都是同一个城市或地区获胜、其它城市或地区失败呢？给予和索取应当遵循什么样的原则才合乎情理呢？

In Europe, the currency union has exacerbated¹⁶ this problem. The indicators that matter to the European Central Bank (ECB), for example, are those representing half a billion people. The ECB is concerned with the inflation or unemployment rate across the eurozone as if it were a single homogeneous territory, at the same time as the economic fate of European citizens is splintering in different directions, depending on which region, city or neighbourhood they happen to live in. Official knowledge becomes ever more abstracted from lived experience, until that knowledge simply ceases to be relevant or credible.

在欧洲，货币同盟加剧了这一问题。例如，对欧洲中央银行(ECB)来说，那些代表5亿人口的指标才是重要的指标。欧洲央行关心的是整个欧元区的通胀或失业率，就好像它是一个单一区域。与此同时，欧洲公民的经济命运正因他们恰好住在哪个地区、城市或者社区而分裂成不同的方向。官方知识从生活经验中变得越来越抽象，直到这种知识不再相关或可信。

1 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

2 capitalism   

n.资本主义

参考例句：

• The essence of his argument is that capitalism cannot succeed.他的论点的核心是资本主义不能成功。
• Capitalism began to develop in Russia in the 19th century.十九世纪资本主义在俄国开始发展。

3 irrelevant   

adj.不恰当的，无关系的，不相干的

参考例句：

• That is completely irrelevant to the subject under discussion.这跟讨论的主题完全不相关。
• A question about arithmetic is irrelevant in a music lesson.在音乐课上，一个数学的问题是风马牛不相及的。

4 exacerbating   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• This pedagogical understretch is exacerbating social inequalities. 这种教学张力不足加重了社会不平等。 来自互联网
• High fertilizer prices are exacerbating the problem. 高涨的肥料价格更加加剧了问题的恶化。 来自互联网

5 rust   

n.锈；v.生锈；(脑子)衰退

参考例句：

• She scraped the rust off the kitchen knife.她擦掉了菜刀上的锈。
• The rain will rust the iron roof.雨水会使铁皮屋顶生锈。

6 geographic   

adj.地理学的，地理的

参考例句：

• The city's success owes much to its geographic position. 这座城市的成功很大程度上归功于它的地理位置。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Environmental problems pay no heed to these geographic lines. 环境问题并不理会这些地理界限。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

7 resentment   

n.怨愤，忿恨

参考例句：

• All her feelings of resentment just came pouring out.她一股脑儿倾吐出所有的怨恨。
• She cherished a deep resentment under the rose towards her employer.她暗中对她的雇主怀恨在心。

8 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

9 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

10 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

11 conceal   

v.隐藏，隐瞒，隐蔽

参考例句：

• He had to conceal his identity to escape the police.为了躲避警方，他只好隐瞒身份。
• He could hardly conceal his joy at his departure.他几乎掩饰不住临行时的喜悦。

12 implicitly   

adv. 含蓄地, 暗中地, 毫不保留地

参考例句：

• Many verbs and many words of other kinds are implicitly causal. 许多动词和许多其他类词都蕴涵着因果关系。
• I can trust Mr. Somerville implicitly, I suppose? 我想，我可以毫无保留地信任萨莫维尔先生吧？

13 patriotic   

adj.爱国的，有爱国心的

参考例句：

• His speech was full of patriotic sentiments.他的演说充满了爱国之情。
• The old man is a patriotic overseas Chinese.这位老人是一位爱国华侨。

14 mutual   

adj.相互的，彼此的；共同的，共有的

参考例句：

• We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。
• Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。

15 justified   

a.正当的，有理的

参考例句：

• She felt fully justified in asking for her money back. 她认为有充分的理由要求退款。
• The prisoner has certainly justified his claims by his actions. 那个囚犯确实已用自己的行动表明他的要求是正当的。

16 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》