英国卫报:你还在相信统计数据吗?(13)

In the long term, the implications of this will probably be as profound as the invention of statistics was in the late 17th century. The rise of "big data" provides far greater opportunities for quantitative¹ analysis than any amount of polling or statistical² modelling. But it is not just the quantity of data that is different. It represents an entirely³ different type of knowledge, accompanied by a new mode of expertise⁴.

长期来看，其影响可能会像17世纪后期统计技术的发明一样深远。“大数据”的兴起为定量分析提供了比任何数量的投票或统计建模都大得多的机会。但不只是数据的数量不同，它代表了一种完全不同的知识类型，伴随着一种新的专业技能模式。

First, there is no fixed⁵ scale of analysis (such as the nation) nor any settled categories (such as "unemployed"). These vast new data sets can be mined in search of patterns, trends, correlations⁶ and emergent moods. It becomes a way of tracking the identities that people bestow⁷ upon themselves (such as "ImwithCorbyn" or "entrepreneur") rather than imposing⁸ classifications upon them. This is a form of aggregation⁹ suitable to a more fluid political age, in which not everything can be reliably referred back to some Enlightenment ideal of the nation state as guardian¹⁰ of the public interest.

首先，它没有固定的分析尺度(比如国家)，也没有固定的分类(比如“失业”)。这些庞大的新的数据集可以被挖掘出来以寻找模式、趋势、相关性和突发情绪。它成为一种追踪人们赋予自己身份的方式(比如“我支持科尔宾”或者“企业家”)，而不是将分类强加给他们。这是一种适用于流动性更大的政治时代的集合形式，在这个时代，并不是每件事情都可以可靠地追溯到某种启蒙运动的理想来作为公共利益的守护者。

Second, the majority of us are entirely oblivious¹¹ to what all this data says about us, either individually or collectively. There is no equivalent of an Office for National Statistics for commercially collected big data. We live in an age in which our feelings, identities and affiliations¹² can be tracked and analysed with unprecedented¹³ speed and sensitivity – but there is nothing that anchors this new capacity in the public interest or public debate. There are data analysts¹⁴ who work for Google and Facebook, but they are not "experts" of the sort who generate statistics and who are now so widely condemned¹⁵. The anonymity¹⁶ and secrecy¹⁷ of the new analysts potentially makes them far more politically powerful than any social scientist.

其次，我们大多数人完全没有注意到这些数据对我们个人或集体的影响。目前还没有一个类似于国家统计局的机构来处理商业上收集的大数据。在我们所生活的时代，人们可以以前所未有的速度和敏感性追踪和分析我们的情感、身份和从属关系——但没有什么能将这种新能力锚定在公众利益或公众辩论上。谷歌和脸书也有数据分析师，但他们不是产生统计数据以及现在饱受谴责的的那种“专家”。新分析师的匿名性和保密性可能使他们在政治上比任何社会科学家都强大得多。

A company such as Facebook has the capacity to carry quantitative social science on hundreds of millions of people, at very low cost. But it has very little incentive¹⁸ to reveal the results. In 2014, when Facebook researchers published results of a study of "emotional contagion¹⁹" that they had carried out on their users – in which they altered news feeds to see how it affected²⁰ the content that users then shared in response – there was an outcry that people were being unwittingly experimented on. So, from Facebook's point of view, why go to all the hassle of publishing? Why not just do the study and keep quiet?

像脸书这样的公司有能力以极低的成本为数亿人提供定量的社会科学，但它将结果公开的动机少之又少。2014年，脸书的研究人员公布了他们对用户进行的一项“情绪传染”研究的结果——其中他们改变了新闻源以观察它如何影响用户之后分享的内容——人们表示强烈抗议，称自己在不知不觉当中成了小白鼠。所以，从脸书的角度来讲，为什么要自找麻烦将结果公布出来呢？本本分分地搞研究不香吗？

1 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

2 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

3 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

4 expertise   

n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长

参考例句：

• We were amazed at his expertise on the ski slopes.他斜坡滑雪的技能使我们赞叹不已。
• You really have the technical expertise in a new breakthrough.让你真正在专业技术上有一个全新的突破。

5 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

6 correlations   

相互的关系( correlation的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• One would expect strong and positive correlations between both complexes. 人们往往以为这两个综合体之间有紧密的正相关。
• The correlations are of unequal value. 这些对应联系的价值并不相同。

7 bestow   

v.把…赠与，把…授予；花费

参考例句：

• He wished to bestow great honors upon the hero.他希望将那些伟大的荣誉授予这位英雄。
• What great inspiration wiII you bestow on me?你有什么伟大的灵感能馈赠给我？

8 imposing   

adj.使人难忘的，壮丽的，堂皇的，雄伟的

参考例句：

• The fortress is an imposing building.这座城堡是一座宏伟的建筑。
• He has lost his imposing appearance.他已失去堂堂仪表。

9 aggregation   

n.聚合，组合；凝聚

参考例句：

• A high polymer is a very large aggregation of units.一个高聚物是许多单元的非常大的组合。
• Moreover,aggregation influences the outcome of chemical disinfection of viruses.此外，聚集作用还会影响化学消毒的效果。

10 guardian   

n.监护人；守卫者，保护者

参考例句：

• The form must be signed by the child's parents or guardian. 这张表格须由孩子的家长或监护人签字。
• The press is a guardian of the public weal. 报刊是公共福利的卫护者。

11 oblivious   

adj.易忘的，遗忘的，忘却的，健忘的

参考例句：

• Mother has become quite oblivious after the illness.这次病后，妈妈变得特别健忘。
• He was quite oblivious of the danger.他完全没有察觉到危险。

12 affiliations   

n.联系( affiliation的名词复数 )；附属机构；亲和性；接纳

参考例句：

• She had affiliations of her own in every capital. 她原以为自己在欧洲各国首府都有熟人。 来自辞典例句
• The society has many affiliations throughout the country. 这个社团在全国有很多关系。 来自辞典例句

13 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

14 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

15 condemned   

adj. 被责难的, 被宣告有罪的 动词condemn的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• He condemned the hypocrisy of those politicians who do one thing and say another. 他谴责了那些说一套做一套的政客的虚伪。
• The policy has been condemned as a regressive step. 这项政策被认为是一种倒退而受到谴责。

16 anonymity   

n.the condition of being anonymous

参考例句：

• Names of people in the book were changed to preserve anonymity. 为了姓名保密，书中的人用的都是化名。
• Our company promises to preserve the anonymity of all its clients. 我们公司承诺不公开客户的姓名。

17 secrecy   

n.秘密，保密，隐蔽

参考例句：

• All the researchers on the project are sworn to secrecy.该项目的所有研究人员都按要求起誓保守秘密。
• Complete secrecy surrounded the meeting.会议在绝对机密的环境中进行。

18 incentive   

n.刺激；动力；鼓励；诱因；动机

参考例句：

• Money is still a major incentive in most occupations.在许多职业中，钱仍是主要的鼓励因素。
• He hasn't much incentive to work hard.他没有努力工作的动机。

19 contagion   

n.(通过接触的疾病)传染；蔓延

参考例句：

• A contagion of fear swept through the crowd.一种恐惧感在人群中迅速蔓延开。
• The product contagion effect has numerous implications for marketing managers and retailers.产品传染效应对市场营销管理者和零售商都有很多的启示。

20 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。