英国卫报:你还在相信统计数据吗?(12)

The rise of identity politics since the 1960s has put additional strain on such systems of classification. Statistical¹ data is only credible² if people will accept the limited range of demographic categories that are on offer, which are selected by the expert not the respondent. But where identity becomes a political issue, people demand to define themselves on their own terms, where gender³, sexuality, race or class is concerned.

20世纪60年代之后身份政治的兴起给这种分类体系带来了额外的压力。只有当人们接受了提供的由专家而不是被调查者选择的有限的人口统计类别时，统计数据才可信。但当身份成为一个政治问题时，人们就会要求用自己的方式来定义自己，比如性别、性取向、种族或阶级。

Opinion polling may be suffering for similar reasons. Polls have traditionally captured people's attitudes and preferences, on the reasonable assumption that people will behave accordingly. But in an age of declining political participation⁴, it is not enough simply to know which box someone would prefer to put an "X" in. One also needs to know whether they feel strongly enough about doing so to bother. And when it comes to capturing such fluctuations⁵ in emotional intensity⁶, polling is a clumsy tool.

民意调查也可能因为类似的原因而受到影响。民意调查一般根据人们会做出相应行为的合理假设来捕捉人们的态度和偏好。但在政治参与度下降的时代，仅仅知道某人更愿意在哪个盒子里放“X”是不够的，还需知道他们是否有足够强烈的意愿去这样做。当要捕捉情绪强度的波动时，民意测验是一种笨拙的工具。

Statistics have faced criticism regularly over their long history. The challenges that identity politics and globalisation present to them are not new either. Why then do the events of the past year feel quite so damaging to the ideal of quantitative⁷ expertise⁸ and its role in political debate?

统计数据在其漫长的历史中经常受到批评，身份政治和全球化给其带来的挑战也已司空见惯。那么，为什么我们会觉得过去一年里发生的事件对定量专家的理想及其在政治辩论中的作用有如此大的破坏性呢？

In recent years, a new way of quantifying and visualising populations has emerged that potentially pushes statistics to the margins⁹, ushering¹⁰ in a different era altogether. Statistics, collected and compiled by technical experts, are giving way to data that accumulates by default, as a consequence of sweeping¹¹ digitisation. Traditionally, statisticians have known which questions they wanted to ask regarding which population, then set out to answer them. By contrast, data is automatically produced whenever we swipe a loyalty¹² card, comment on Facebook or search for something on Google. As our cities, cars, homes and household objects become digitally connected, the amount of data we leave in our trail will grow even greater. In this new world, data is captured first and research questions come later.

近年来出现了一种量化和可视化人口的新方法，这种方法有可能将数据推向边缘，从而开创一个完全不同的时代。由于大规模数字化，由技术专家收集和汇编的统计数据正在让位于默认情况下积累的数据。一般情况下，统计学家已经知道他们想针对哪些人口问哪些问题，然后着手回答这些问题。相比之下，每当我们刷会员卡、在脸书上发表评论或者在谷歌上搜索某个东西时，数据就会自动生成。随着我们的城市、汽车、住宅和家用物品的数字化连接，我们留下的数据量将会越来越大。在这个新的世界，首先是获取数据，其次才是研究问题。

1 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

2 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

3 gender   

n.（生理上的）性，（名词、代词等的）性

参考例句：

• French differs from English in having gender for all nouns.法语不同于英语，所有的名词都有性。
• Women are sometimes denied opportunities solely because of their gender.妇女有时仅仅因为性别而无法获得种种机会。

4 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

5 fluctuations   

波动，涨落，起伏( fluctuation的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table. 他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• There were so many unpredictable fluctuations on the Stock Exchange. 股票市场瞬息万变。

6 intensity   

n.强烈，剧烈；强度；烈度

参考例句：

• I didn't realize the intensity of people's feelings on this issue.我没有意识到这一问题能引起群情激奋。
• The strike is growing in intensity.罢工日益加剧。

7 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

8 expertise   

n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长

参考例句：

• We were amazed at his expertise on the ski slopes.他斜坡滑雪的技能使我们赞叹不已。
• You really have the technical expertise in a new breakthrough.让你真正在专业技术上有一个全新的突破。

9 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

10 ushering   

v.引，领，陪同( usher的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• They were right where the coach-caller was swinging open a coach-door and ushering in two ladies. "他们走到外面时，叫马车的服务员正打开车门，请两位小姐上车。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹
• Immediately the two of them approached others, thanking them, ushering them out one by one. 他们俩马上走到其他人面前，向他们道谢，一个个送走了他们。 来自辞典例句

11 sweeping   

adj.范围广大的，一扫无遗的

参考例句：

• The citizens voted for sweeping reforms.公民投票支持全面的改革。
• Can you hear the wind sweeping through the branches?你能听到风掠过树枝的声音吗？

12 loyalty   

n.忠诚，忠心

参考例句：

• She told him the truth from a sense of loyalty.她告诉他真相是出于忠诚。
• His loyalty to his friends was never in doubt.他对朋友的一片忠心从来没受到怀疑。